What Will Minnesota Twins Do with Matt Wallner?

3 hours ago, the_brute_squad said:

"it seems counterproductive to trade away one of their few above-average hitters." 

Just because someone has a slightly higher OPS does not make him an above-average hitter. .202 BA with 40 RBI in over 500 AB's shows a well below average hitter.

OPS is not the only batting metric. 

It's true, OPS is not the only batting metric. But it's a substantially more useful one than RBIs to describe a hitter.

Wallner's SLG% may have been a bit empty last season, but at least he has one. Only two Twins last season had a higher SLG: Byron Buxton (who was the best position player on the team by a mile) and Jhonny Pareda (who only had 32 PA's). Having that kind of power threat matters.

It was a down season for Wallner, to be sure. But it's always a little surprising to me that people want to cut a guy loose at the first sign of struggle, especially when there's been a track record of much better performance (see also, Ober, Bailey). But it also seems like there's such a bias against Wallner because of style (lots of K's) that maybe some people want him to be bad so they can be right about him.

It won't take a lot to get Wallner's hitting back closer to where it was in 2023 & 2024; historically he's been excellent with RISP so the 79 PA's he got this season with poor performance might be more of a fluke (or impacted by the failures of every other hitter not named Buxton to be a consistent threat in the lineup) than a reflection of his actual ability. His BABIP was staggeringly low this season (100 pts below his previous career low), which suggests he was also a bit unlucky. If he figures out a way to cover the top half of the plate better, it's quite easy to see a return to form.

Would I prefer him to DH more in 2026? Yes, because that would mean that one of our minor league OF like Rodriguez, Jenkins, Fedko, or Gonzalez has stepped up and shown they can hit MLB pitching. That's the best result for the Twins: Wallner hits like the guy from 2023-2024 and production elsewhere makes it easy to slide him over to DH.

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I'm pretty confident Wallner is the next Rooker. He was better with runners on than bases empty last year, and pitchers absolutely pitched around him because most of the Twins lineup was useless. Wallner will rebound.

The level of hate for Wallner on this site reminds me a lot of the negative comments about Rooker back in the day... and the complete unwillingness for the haters to accept they were absolutely dead wrong after that. Being right on the internet is critically important to the ego, you know, haha.

The biggest difference between Rooker and Wallner.

OPS vs RHP - .881

OPS vs LHP - .641

OPS vs RHP - .820

OPS vs LHP - .853

I agree some have been over the top on Wallner, but pointing out how bad Wallner was last year isn't hate, it is just pointing out the obvious. IMO he likely will get back to 23 and 24 stats (even though those two years were very limited (only 254 and 261 PS), I also think to start the year he should be protected from facing too many left handed pitchers)

There isn't any reason to trade Matt Wallner unless a team makes an offer that makes sense. We have no idea how teams value players. I made a wild guess some time ago that perhaps Pittsburgh, a team in need of ANY offense would make a gamble on Wallner and return Jared Jones to MN. This was wildly panned, with a few people taking it personal. It was just a wild throw. Perhaps someone who has BBTV could assess that thought from that perspective.

There have been multiple comparisons to Brent Rooker. Rooker received his shot at 28 with Oakland. He is a DH and only plays about once per week in the field. I have routinely suggested that the Twins use Wallner as a pure DH. Wallner has been used in the field with appearances as a DH about once per week. There were reasons for this in the past, but looking forward, there simply isn't any reason any longer.

Wallner is actually one of the easier decisions for the Twins. 1) He is their DH. 2) He gets traded for a good return.

Larnach is a pretty good player and his bat plays differently. The two together on one team doesn't work because they are both pure DH's and left handed hitters. Larnach loses out in that competition because he will earn more money if offered arbitration. Larnach stays, maybe, if Wallner is traded. If Wallner stays, there isn't a position on the roster for Larnach.

Of course, there are people who are huge fans of Matt Wallner and want his big bat in right field. That is a different opinion and it just represents a different opinion of a player. 

The team was filled with underperformance everywhere. His "down" year was still 2nd best on the team and 14% above league average. If this is his bad season, sign me up. Plug him in at DH and see how it goes. He had a higher home run rate than Ronald Acuna Jr. The Twins team is full of question marks and Matt Wallner is getting way too much attention. Im more excited to see what a new coaching staff may be able to unlock in him!

Wallner has some interesting company.  Acuna, Seager, Chapman, etc... lots of good players on this list.

Mostly they share something in common...they played on teams that underperformed offensively in 2025.  Maybe they were the causes of that underperformance, but I suspect the lack of RBI's was also a lack of baserunners to drive in.

Look, he's cheap, he had success in 2023 and 24, and he might return to that form.  If some other team is willing to pay a rate based on his '23 and '24 stats I'd certainly listen, but I'd be reluctant to sell low on Wallner simply due to a bad 2025.

44 minutes ago, Chembry said:

According to BBTV, Wallner has a trade value of 22.5 and Jared Jones has a BBTV of 19.5.  Pretty close in value but would be considered a minor overpay by the Twins.  

Thank you for that information. I would add a guy like Travis Adams or a lower level minor league player myself to acquire Jones. He is a gamble because he is returning from an internal brace surgery and not expected back until May. The Pirates are not counting on him as a pitcher, but would welcome his return. I think Pittsburgh is in a win-win situation with Jared Jones.

I'm not down on Matt Wallner. Many times my position on the roster has been put forth, asking for better defense across the board. Players who are DH's should be used primarily at the DH spot. Many disagree that Wallner is a DH. So that is a different view where people agree to disagree. 

Also, there have been a ton of comments about people hating Wallner. The vast majority of comments on Wallner don't support that idea. Yes, there are people such as myself who want him to DH and others who believe he is worth something more to another team, which I agree with dependent on the return. Only a couple of people have made disparaging comments and want Wallner off the team. I fail to see how an opinion that states Wallner should be a DH is a hateful comment. Wallner hits some majestic home runs and I can see how he has loyal fans.

I say give him one more year as the everyday DH with occasional starts in RF. He's cheap as can be. See if he can hit 30 homers without striking out 200 times. If he breaks out, great. If not, add him to the list of corner OF we need to dump. Outman, Roden, Larnach, Keirsey.

Guys like Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Fedko and Rosario are who we are going to rely on.

14 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Baseball probably won't be around for a full 162 game season in 2027.

If the CBA rumors come true, there won't be another 162-game season. We will likely see 154 or 156-game seasons going forward. I'm sure Minnesotans won't mind 3 fewer home games in April.

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

I say give him one more year as the everyday DH with occasional starts in RF. He's cheap as can be. See if he can hit 30 homers without striking out 200 times. If he breaks out, great. If not, add him to the list of corner OF we need to dump. Outman, Roden, Larnach, Keirsey.

Guys like Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez, Fedko and Rosario are who we are going to rely on.

Yep, they have proven they can handle Major League Baseball, 🤠 we have no idea which will be good enough and which will another Keirsey Jr. in the bigs.

19 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I've been advocating Kepler or Larnach to CO for years.

Kepler???

10 minutes ago, JADBP said:

Kepler???

Sooo many comments here saying the same thing:  trade him if we get good value otherwise he becomes DH.  It’s a good plan. 
 

But that’s not all we need to do.  We need better coaching.  He’s got holes in his hitting.  He likely needs to refine his swing mechanics, pitch recognition, workout routine and daily game prep.  All things his MLB coaches need to help him with. So maybe the Twins have failed Wallner more than Wallner has failed the Twins? 
 

Yup, Wallner’s 2025 sucked.  But I say our inability to properly coach, train, instruct and use him is the reason why. 
 

A couple of examples:  not starting him against LH pitching, or subbing him out on the 4th inning when the oppo mgr brings in a LH reliever.  If I were Wallner when that happened, I’d be 1. Super angry, 2. Embarrassed, 3. Hurt, and 4, even more super pissed off when I told Rocco “How the F do you expect me to learn if I never get a chance to try????

2 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I recall some (more than a few, definitely not everyone) gnashing teeth over the loss of Max Kepler.  It looks like at very least, Wallner has managed to do that, with probable upside available for the future.  A meager success to be sure, but a small step in a good direction.  

But Kepler was a far better defender….. 

Unless a good offer comes in for Wallner, this isn't even a question? He is the starting RF until someone takes that job from him.

If Emma or Jenkins or anyone really steps up & proves to be a better option then they should move him to DH or trade him. Until then he is the starting RF.

4 hours ago, Chembry said:

What I am getting from most of the conversation here, is that fans expect a player to be traded or non-tendered if they have a down year.  Is that correct?  

I am not particularly high on Wallner, but not necessarily down on him either...I think the vast majority of Wallner hate is unjustified and skewed on "what has he done for me lately" attitude based on 2025, ignoring the rest of his career.  Here are his stats from 2022-2024:

Season	Age	Team	WAR	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2022	24	MIN	-0.3	18	65	57	13	3	0	2	10	6	25	0.228	0.323	0.386	0.709	103
2023	25	MIN	2.2	76	254	213	53	11	1	14	41	28	80	0.249	0.37	0.507	0.877	138
2024	26	MIN	2.2	75	261	220	57	17	1	13	37	24	95	0.259	0.372	0.523	0.894	149
Totals			4.1	169	580	490	123	31	2	29	88	58	200	0.251	0.312	0.500	0.866	140
												10% BB	34% K
Season	Age	Team	WAR	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2025	27	MIN	0.5	104	392	336	68	16	3	22	40	46	114	0.202	0.311	0.464	0.776	110
												12% BB	29% K

The stats show that over 2022-2024 Wallner was a well above average hitter.  BABIP also took a big hit in 2025 going down from .361 to .228.  Hard hit rate also reduced from 51.5% down to 45.5%.  2025 was a down year, no question, but that doesn't necessarily mean he can't return to pre-2025 form.  And even though 2025 was a down year, he still played above replacement level.    

With that being said, Wallner should mostly DH.  Defensively he has averaged -4 OAA since he came into the league.  That also means ERod, Jenkins, etc... have stepped up and taken that role. 

There is no reason to trade or give up on him.  Someone else mentioned Kyle Schwarber.  I would put Wallner and Schwarber as similar architectural type of hitters.  Power hitters that K at a significant rate. Schwarber has a career 34% K rate, but most here also value Schwarber very highly.  Schwarber has had his ups and downs as well.  He has two seasons where he hit below .200 (.197 and .188) and two others just above .200 (.211 and .218).  I am not trying to compare the two, just pointing out that even highly regarded power hitters have up and down years.   

According to BBTV, Wallner has a trade value of 22.5 and Jared Jones has a BBTV of 19.5.  Pretty close in value but would be considered a minor overpay by the Twins.  

 

I would make the trade. I really don’t see how BTV can possibly evaluate his trade value or really anyone on the outside. The range of possible outcomes returning from his elbow injury is pretty wide. The Pirates will know best the health of his arm. If they are willing to deal him that probably means that they aren’t confident in a full return and a healthy arm going forward. If they are confident I don’t see how they trade away his four remaining years of control.

19 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

@RpRjust gonna get out ahead of this. No one has said he should play defense which is your specialty. There’s this special position in MLB called the designated hitter, which the Twins do not have anyone in mind to put in that crazy spot. Perhaps that is Matt Wallner. 

Sort of depends on roster construction and managerial philosophy. Current trends, esp with Rocco, is/was to just rotate players through the DH slot without any real consideration for whether they actually “hit” or not. Sort of the opposite of the “professional hitter” days of Jim Thome or Nelson Cruz. For the record I prefer having the player occupying the DH slot actually being an average (or above) hitting threat, not just another sub-average interchangeable part of the “anyone can play anywhere, anytime “ roster approach this FO has had in recent years. 

55 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I would make the trade. I really don’t see how BTV can possibly evaluate his trade value or really anyone on the outside. The range of possible outcomes returning from his elbow injury is pretty wide. The Pirates will know best the health of his arm. If they are willing to deal him that probably means that they aren’t confident in a full return and a healthy arm going forward. If they are confident I don’t see how they trade away his four remaining years of control.

The arm is a mystery and every pitcher coming back from surgery proclaims full health. I'm not sure, having had surgery, if it is possible to predict how a pitcher comes back. For me, the Pirates need bats. I feel pretty confident that the Twins are not winning anything in 2026 and also feel good about the corner outfield spots between Jenkins, Martin, Rodriguez, and Roden. I also feel that Larnach and Gonzalez can cover DH, as well as others wanting a day off their feet (Buxton, Lewis). In any event it seemed like a chance at a mutually beneficial trade between the two teams. I can see how people might object as well as feeling that Pittsburgh will not entertain offers for Jones. He is a wild card.

Wallner is maybe the one player currently rostered that I believe and am confident will have a greatly improved 2026. I'm not one who is either in his fanclub or against him in any way. The rest of this team aside from Buxton and Jeffers I have little confidence in. I am in favor of Wallner being our full-time DH. I also don't see any player that we have who shouldn't be considered for trade, including Wallner. If it improves the club moving forward, then yes.

3 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I recall some (more than a few, definitely not everyone) gnashing teeth over the loss of Max Kepler.  It looks like at very least, Wallner has managed to do that, with probable upside available for the future.  A meager success to be sure, but a small step in a good direction.  

Wallner is starting to look like Sano in Right Field; major loss for the 'Twins.

Wallner (Lurch)

Kepler

Anyone who thinks there's been an overwhelming amount of "HATE" for Wallner should have read some of the posts regarding Kirk Cousins on Daily Norseman.  Please, let's just stop with labeling anyone who would consider trading Wallner on TD a "HATER."  It's over the top, and lazy.

Wallner has decent value as evidenced by the 22.5 value assigned by BBTV.  He has prodigious power...when he actually puts bat on ball.  He's a poor fielding, lumbering RF with a cannon for an arm.  He has strengths that could attract interest from any number of teams.  He also has warts that could scare a lot of teams off as well.  

If the right trade was presented for the right player or players, I'd consider it.  Wallner to the White Sox for Teel or Quero would fill a big void for the Twins behind the plate.  But a major reason the Twins could consider trading him other than the potential return is who we have coming up from the minor leagues. 

We have depth there, with guys that play the same position as Wallner (and play it much better).  They're younger and more athletic.  Having Wallner exclusively DH might be a good plan.  Rooker showed absolutely no capability of becoming the player he has.  He was 27 when we traded him to the A's and he did very little to show he should have been kept.  Wallner will be 29 this next season.  How much do those 2 years factor in?

Wallner could turn things around and become "Rooker Part II."  But that's why he could bring a solid young catcher back or even a very intriguing young pitcher like Jared Jones (if he's healthy).  We currently have a LOT of young pitchers with potential, so it's debatable if that's our biggest need.  But if Jones were to regain his health, with the price of solid pitching in baseball today, that would be a big win for the Twins. 

26 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Anyone who thinks there's been an overwhelming amount of "HATE" for Wallner should have read some of the posts regarding Kirk Cousins on Daily Norseman.  Please, let's just stop with labeling anyone who would consider trading Wallner on TD a "HATER."  It's over the top, and lazy.

Wallner has decent value as evidenced by the 22.5 value assigned by BBTV.  He has prodigious power...when he actually puts bat on ball.  He's a poor fielding, lumbering RF with a cannon for an arm.  He has strengths that could attract interest from any number of teams.  He also has warts that could scare a lot of teams off as well.  

If the right trade was presented for the right player or players, I'd consider it.  Wallner to the White Sox for Teel or Quero would fill a big void for the Twins behind the plate.  But a major reason the Twins could consider trading him other than the potential return is who we have coming up from the minor leagues. 

We have depth there, with guys that play the same position as Wallner (and play it much better).  They're younger and more athletic.  Having Wallner exclusively DH might be a good plan.  Rooker showed absolutely no capability of becoming the player he has.  He was 27 when we traded him to the A's and he did very little to show he should have been kept.  Wallner will be 29 this next season.  How much do those 2 years factor in?

Wallner could turn things around and become "Rooker Part II."  But that's why he could bring a solid young catcher back or even a very intriguing young pitcher like Jared Jones (if he's healthy).  We currently have a LOT of young pitchers with potential, so it's debatable if that's our biggest need.  But if Jones were to regain his health, with the price of solid pitching in baseball today, that would be a big win for the Twins. 

Twins traded Rooker to San Diego who released him (I think), picked up by Kansas City, released and picked up by Oakland. It's a journey. I believe Wallner may flourish in a strictly DH role though, but it is a stretch to think he does as well as Rooker.

I like the White Sox young catchers a ton but they won't trade them. Teel was the main guy for Crochet and he worked out. Teams today know that catchers are valuable and they are difficult to acquire as a result. Neither of the young Pale Hose catchers are options, sad to say. I think a number of teams will be talking with Seattle about Harry Ford. Not sure what to offer because the Mariners are a tough team to figure out. Maybe Emmanuel Rodriguez and Travis Adams for Harry Ford and Jurrangelo Cijntje? Tough to lose EmRod, who has so much potential. Perhaps Jenkins, Martin, Rodon, and possibly a player arriving in a Ryan trade covers him. Catchers will be difficult to come by. Tait is 3 years away and he may be a first baseman by then. Do the Twins resign Christian Vazquez or a similar gov (grizzled old vet)?  

Pitching is not a need and I have said so in other comments about trading Ryan. However, I think Wallner might be a good pick up for the Pirates and Jared Jones is the type of pitcher worth a gamble. The Pirates are loaded with pitchers. The Twins could add a couple of minor league guys to entice Pittsburgh too ... maybe Fedko or Rosario.

On 10/21/2025 at 7:27 PM, ashbury said:

I'm ordinarily leery of slicing and dicing data and then taking it very seriously.  Small Sample Size is always lurking.  Still, Wallner's 2025 splits contain something I find at least interesting.

OPS  PA     Game Situation

.708  322   Within 4 runs

1.113    70    > 4 runs

That first line is a very inadequate offensive contribution from a corner outfielder.  70 PA, on the other hand, is a splendid example of a Small Sample.  And yet, what "saves" his season and gives him his seemingly productive .776 overall OPS is exactly during those 70 times when a home run here or there was arguably least likely to affect the game outcome. He was a monster at the plate once the game was more or less decided.

The opposing pitchers have some say in this too, and they obviously pitch every batter differently depending on a variety of factors.  Somehow, Wallner seems to have been more susceptible hitting well only in the cases where the pitcher says, "okay big boy, here it comes, try and hit it, the manager has me in here to eat some innings - I'll be in AAA tomorrow whatever you do."

Which reminds me to look up Joey Gallo's 2023 season, which I have pigeonholed as similar to Wallner's 2025.  Not quite.  With him it was more to do with which team was ahead:

OPS  PA     Game Situation

.598  75    Tie game

.572  120   Behind

.983  137   Ahead

Two very different ways these guys had, to put up overall OPS that seemed better than the situational eye test would have told you.  Already got the lead? Joey was your man that year.

You know the advanced stat that matched up with that eye test for both?  Win Probability Added.  Gallo's WPA in 2023 was -1.2, despite an offensive WAR that was above 1. Wallner's 2025 WPA was -0.5 despite an offensive WAR that was also above 1.  Both players dragged their team down with their negative offense, despite raw numbers that would lead you to think they had contributed positively.  WAR, built on the same components as OPS and more, treats every plate appearance as equal.

Every slugger hits a meaningless dinger now and then - it's the nature of the game - these guys found subtly different ways to maximize those. There's more than one way to suck during a season.

What's a player supposed to do when the game is out of reach or his team is already ahead, not try?  No, I'm not saying that.  And I'm not calling either player a "selfish hitter," whatever that means in baseball, either.  Just this: stats need to be examined carefully if results aren't matching up to what you think you're seeing.  (And it may still turn out you're "seeing" things the wrong way and the aggregate stats are more or less right.)

I don't question Wallner's toughness, mentally or physically - I always fall back on remembering him take an inside pitch on the chin and yet he was back in the lineup a couple days later.  And this situational stuff seems like an area where a new manager or batting coach might be able to help, more than with his mechanics or whatnot - indeed if injury wasn't an issue then perhaps his uniformly lousy September could have been due to trying to correct the situational problem and somehow only making things worse overall.  New personnel in the dugout could represent a fresh start mentally.

Here's hoping Matt turns things around in a way that shows up in wins rather than only the OPS he racks up.

 

The next time I see Wallner make any adjustment, it will be the first!

What, no one notices that he is the slowest OF in releasing the ball?  Supposedly superior arm strength that grades out as the least usable arm in the majors.  Overhauling that would be a snap compared to a ground up rebuild of his batting stance, swing and overall approach at the plate. 

Yet, we have seen zero change in either.  So, don't hold your breath waiting for any change for the better. He obviously has it all figured out - in his "mind".