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Less than two weeks ago, I wrote that the Twins should pursue a trade for a big bat to bolster the offense. Since then, the complexion has changed a bit, as the team continues to look lost. On Monday, Matt Braun looked at the possibility of a 2018-style retool. However, if the slide continues, fans may face the real possibility that the Twins could go even further: to reach the conclusion that the current core is unlikely to win consistently, and to sell everyone with less than a few years of control remaining.
To be clear, this is not a path I would advocate for, as a true tear down is far from certain to actually work, and would almost certainly lead to a long stretch of unwatchable baseball. That said, the Twins do have a number of players that are likely to fetch legitimate assets in return. In some cases, this can lead to a a restock of the system. Look at everyone the Twins traded in 2022 for a solid starter, a solid reliever, Jorge López, and a depth catcher.
So, who are the guys who could be dangled if things continue to go poorly, and what might they fetch? Let’s dig in!
The Rentals
This group is pretty straightforward. They all are on expiring contracts, and all have positive trade value. As Braun noted, they are likely to move even in a roster retool.
Willi Castro, Braun pointed out, is sort of similar to what the Twins had in Eduardo Escobar. He’s been an above-average hitter since signing with the Twins, and offers defensive flexibility. The Twins got the prospect version of Jhoan Duran for Escobar, and Castro could fetch a similar return.
Harrison Bader has experienced a renaissance in his age-31 season. Long known for his defensive prowess and speed on the bases, he has been better than expected offensively as well. On pace for around 2.5 fWAR and with $3 million remaining, teams in need of right-handed outfield help might fetch a borderline top-100 guy. The Twins got Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz, and while they aren’t similar stylistically, the return could be.
Ty France has been an enigma since signing with the Twins. Known as a weak defender but solid bat, he has flipped the script, not hitting much at all for a first baseman (except when he’s batted with runners on; then he’s been great). Making basically the league minimum, the Twins would have no trouble moving him, although the return would be a lottery ticket prospect.
Chris Paddack, the oft-injured starter, has been perfectly fine for the Twins, as long as you don’t look too hard under the hood. At this point, trading him would probably be mostly a salary dump, with a middling prospect coming back if a team really likes him.
Danny Coulombe has been great for the Twins as a secondary setup man at an affordable price. Owed about $1.5 million for the rest of the season, he would improve any contender’s bullpen. The Twins traded Sawyer Gipson-Long, a promising starting pitching prospect, for Michael Fulmer three seasons ago, and could expect a similar return for Coulombe.
Guys With Two-Plus Years of Control
Jhoan Duran is a “proven closer”, and we all know his stuff is filthy. Any contender would love to slot Duran into the back of their bullpen. He would fetch multiple good prospects, or a pre-arbitration regular that could immediately slot into the roster. As hard as it would be to lose Duran, the haul would be impressive.
Griffin Jax, while he doesn’t have the track record of closing, would probably fetch a return a half-step less than Duran. In short, multiple good prospects.
Trevor Larnach is an above-average hitter and a sub-par defender in the outfield. For a team looking at a corner lefty bat, they could do worse. I would guess the return wouldn’t be enough to seriously consider moving him, particularly since the Twins have been struggling offensively.
The Ones That Would Hurt
This group consists of players who have two-plus years of control remaining, and who the Twins will probably only move if they are offered the world. Yes, the guys who don’t have guaranteed deals will start getting expensive, but at the same time, they won’t be that expensive for a team lacking the self-imposed budgetary constraints the Twins have.
Pablo Lopez, the Twins staff ace, is signed to a deal that half the teams in the league would love. He likely has somewhere between $5-8 million in surplus value on an annual basis. He’s worth every penny the Twins are paying him. But, he’s accounting for something like one-sixth of the Twins' payroll. He would fetch at least one top-100 prospect, plus some additional pieces.
Joe Ryan might be the player opposing teams would be most interested in. 2026 will represent his second trip through arbitration-eligibility and will probably make something in the range of $6-8 million next year, and perhaps $12-15 million in 2027. He would fetch a haul as a pitcher who’s not quite a frontline starter, but he’s close. Jose Berrios brought back Simeon Woods Richardson and Austin Martin, both of whom were top-100 prospects at the time. Ryan is better than Berrios was, and has an extra year of team control. Were the Twins to trade Ryan, they could just about name their price. Multiple top-100 guys, including at least one elite prospect with real potential to be an All-Star.
Bailey Ober would have fetched a very similar haul to Ryan, if not for the past few months of mediocre pitching, potentially stemming from a mechanical issue or a nagging hip issue. But, he’s got the track record of excellence and two-plus years of control. In 2022, the Twins traded Spencer Steer, Steven Hajjar, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle. At the time, that was a fringe top-100 guy in Steer, and Ober has one more year of control, and has been better than Mahle was. Even in a down year, it would be a haul.
The Guys Who Aren’t Going Anywhere
Finally, we have some guys that it just won’t make sense to trade, or that the Twins will be unable to find a deal that makes sense.
Carlos Correa has a full no-trade clause and likes Minnesota. Plus, the Twins are underwater on his contract, as typically happens a few years into any multi-year deal. Even if the Twins would like to get out from under that deal (and there’s no sense this is the case) they would need to include salary relief, include significant prospects, or both. Not happening.
Byron Buxton is in a similar situation, sort of. His $15 million annual salary has been a steal for the Twins, so it’s not a situation the Twins would likely want to extricate from. He also has a full no-trade clause and has loudly stated his desire to retire a member of the Twins.
Many teams would covet Ryan Jeffers, but the Twins almost certainly won’t move him for one simple reason: they don’t have any other catchers in the system that would be ready to be anything more than a backup in 2026.
Royce Lewis is a currently-distressed asset, and also has tremendous upside still. With three full seasons of control after this year, I can’t imagine the Twins shopping him.
The pre-arbitration guys: David Festa, Zebby Matthews, Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Louie Varland, Luke Keaschall, and the guys who have yet to debut. If the problem is the current core, there’s no reason to deal from the next core.
Looking through this somewhat extensive list of assets, it’s clear the Twins could quickly turn their farm system into the best in baseball should the become sellers at the deadline. I, for one, hope it doesn’t come to that.
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