What Do The Twins See In Tyler Kinley?

Remember Atlanta was going to trade for Burdi knowing full well he just underwent TJ. Then changed their mind when they saw his medicals. 

I'm not sure it was quite so simple as that. That was an early version of the deal, and there may have been cash coming from Atlanta at that point. Rather than changing their opinion of Burdi, maybe the medicals changed the Braves estimate of whether the Twins would protect Burdi this winter, and they didn't want to pay for a guy who could be available to them in Rule 5.

To be fair to Kinley, his worst numbers at AA were to open the 2017 season -- 10 runs in 8 IP, .987 OPS, only 21.7% K rate. Then he got sent back to high-A and dominated, and returned later to AA and was better -- 9 runs in 18 IP, .664 OPS, 30% K rate. And not to get too selective, but most of that was one game where he was charged with 4 runs without retiring a batter.  He finished the regular season with the following 8 game stretch: 10 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 15 K, .280 OPS. (He did serve up 2 solo HR in a playoff appearance, though.)  Still, that's only AA, and while it might hint at talent, it doesn't suggest consistency.

Kinley's Dominican Winter League stats are also a bit suspect. The league as a whole has a 3.34 ERA, which is even less run scoring than the notoriously pitcher-friendly Florida State League (where Kinley also excelled in 2017).  In addition to Justin Haley doing well there, Sam Deduno is still pitching there. Alexi Casilla and Danny Santana are both hitting over .300 there right now too. Very hard to project from those stats!

So playing that all out, there was a chance that by opening day the Twins would have all 3 players in their system, with only the Rule V pick taking up a 40-man spot. 

Even if we protected him from Rule 5, Burdi wouldn't have been effectively taking a 40-man spot by opening day -- he will be placed on the 60-day DL.

- Burdi is damaged goods to a certain degree. Have Atlanta nix the trade due after seeing his medicals is a pretty big red flag.

I mentioned upthread, but it's not clear that the Burdi-Garcia trade was the same as the eventual Ynoa-Garcia trade. If the Braves had been willing to eat some of Garcia's salary for Burdi, them backing out is not necessarily a "big red flag". Maybe they didn't want to pay for Burdi and also have to protect him while injured from Rule 5?  Maybe they thought there was a chance they could select him in Rule 5 (he didn't last that long, although the Braves drafted another RH reliever instead).

Bard had a great year ... but it was as a 26-year-old mostly in Double-A. If Bard was really MLB ready, why did he spend the majority of the year in Chattanooga? Even if he would've been added to the 40 man, it's likely he would have also immediately became the most likely guy to be DFA'd. 

To be fair to Bard, prior to 2017 he only had 14 career innings at AA, and those were at the end of 2016, his first full season back from missing multiple seasons with injury. That might have caused the Twins to slow his advancement a bit.  And he not only performed well at AA in 2017, but he didn't miss a beat after making his AAA debut -- and beyond the stats, wasn't it reported that he had the best fastball spin rate in the whole system, along with Gonsalves?

And if needing his 40-man spot was a concern, why draft Kinley? Kinley is effectively locked into a spot through March now.

To those thinking those relievers will be returned to the Twins, it should be noted that the Angels, despite being a big market club, kept a Rule 5 guy on their roster for the entire season each year from 2013-2015 (although their 2013 pick went down with TJ surgery, and was actually selected again and ultimately returned to his original club after the season).

The Pirates haven't been as active in Rule 5 (at least not until now, with 2 picks on their current roster), but given their financial constraints and a bullpen that has shed 3 of its top 4 (by innings) since the trade deadline, I could see them looking to keep Burdi too.

It's possible the Twins offer Kinley back to Miami before March ... pretty sure they could do it today if they wanted to. 

Technically possible, but not likely. I'm not aware of any Rule 5 pick being returned or even let go on waivers before mid-March at the earliest:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results

Practically speaking, Rule 5 selections are basically locked into their team's 40-man roster into spring training.

That's all I'm trying to say. If they sign a guy today, thus filling the 40-man roster, there's nothing I'm aware of that would prevent them from dumping Kinley if they wanted to open up a spot for somebody else. Everything's scribbled in pencil at this point.

But what I am saying is, that doesn't happen with Rule 5 picks before spring training, not just for the Twins but anywhere else in the league as far as I know.

Despite the more modest financial commitment, dumping Kinley today is about as likely as the Twins releasing Rodney or Pineda (also technically possible).  It can't be considered any kind of meaningful feature of his selection, any more than DFAing Bard this winter would have been (guys added to the 40-man in November don't get dropped before spring training either).