Twins Trade Deadline: The Bailey Ober Threshold

1 hour ago, Patzky said:

He doesn't quack like an ace anymore. His five quality innings against Chicago were painful to watch. No playoff team's batting order will remotely resemble the White Sox but at the end of the day, 2 ER is alright by me no matter how it was gotten.

He may not quack like an ace today but one thing we should always remember:  Things change fast.

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I understand Ober as a functional scale, no sense getting someone "below" him, however you define that.

I can also follow @ashbury that maybe you set your sites lower, if necessary, and STILL add someone solid for depth options if nothing else.

But I do have to question any idea that Ober isn't a playoff caliber starter. As of this day, his ERA is about .75 higher than 2023, however, it's actually lower than last year over his last 7 appearances. Further, he's on pace for more IP than last season, with a slightly higher K per 9, but slightly higher BB per 9 and WHIP. His AVG, OB%, and  ABIP are slightly lower than 2023, but his SLG% is slightly higher. If WINS are a statistic you like to use as a measuring stick, he's already equalled last year.

All this to say Ober was very good in 2023. His numbers are very, very comparable to last season, with a couple very close ups and downs. If the guy never had to face the Royals his numbers would be even better. WOOF! 

I think he's a legitimate, quality #3 starter. So to me, he's already a playoff  caliber starter. I don't know how you can do better unless you give up an awful lot for a rental, hut I guess if you DID find someone better, you'd have a hell of a potential 1-4.

That's how i see it as well.  Unless things change (which of course they can/will), the Twins top 3 starters look like good playoff starters.  I agree with the premise that the Twins need another playoff worthy starter, but I don't feel like that starter needs to be better than Ober as the cost is likely prohibitive.  What's funny is that it seems like the general consensus before the season started is that the Twins were one good starter from having a playoff competitive team.  Seemingly, that remains the case.  Stewart, Paddock and Varland likely bolster the pen and the hitting just needs to avoid injuries!

I like the idea of adding Eflin or Eovaldi due to their general consistency & experience and they are the most realistic targets discussed. And those of us who watch Ober know he's not a shutdown guy. But are we not giving him enough credit? Help me understand why Eflin and Eovaldi surpass the Ober threshold ("better than Bailey Ober" per the article)?

ERA / FIP / Kper9 / WHIP

Ober: 4.14 / 3.94 / 9.5 / 1.08

Eflin: 3.99 / 3.96 / 7.1 / 1.11

Eovaldi: 3.10 / 3.74 / 8.8. / 1.03

I see these guys as significantly helping the playoff run and attempt to push past the Guardians. But once we're in the playoffs they seem like tossups with Ober for who gets a playoff start based mostly on matchups and who is hot. I raise this because they Twins should not overpay for these two based on the idea it will improve playoff odds for a Game 3 at an individual pitcher level. Overall they'd provide depth during the lead up and potential options going into playoffs, which has value and can increase odds overall, I suppose. Am I missing something?

Barring injuries, our lineup is fine. Maybe try to trade Farmer Margot and possibly Santana for some prospects. Bullpen should be solid if we can trade for a lefty reliever. I do think we need a playoff caliber starter to take the place of Paddack or SWR. Eovaldi would be great, Flaherty or maybe Fedde, if they'd be willing to trade with us in the division. I highly doubt we spend the farm on someone like Crochet or take on any large contracts...

We all know a good starter and reliever would be a big plus.  Just not sure Falvine will pull the trigger on big trade.

15 hours ago, Paul Walerius said:

Don't like Festa being lumped in there.   SWR was not good his first few chances.  Festa could go either way but seems to have what it takes (other than experience) 

Agreed, but he needs seasoning. I like him at SP7 right now. Spot starts and gaining experience. Berrios was also pretty had that first September.

The conversation here all seems to ignore one immensely pertinent fact; a trade being consummated is likely not up to Falvey, but to the Pohlads.  A simple look at the Twins multi-year payroll shows they already have $117M committed for next year--only $11M below 2024.  While that $117M does include options that will surely be declined ($12M on Margot, $6.25M on Farmer), that still leaves the Twins at about $99M BEFORE arb figures are determined for Jeffers, Kiriloff, Castro, Lewis, Larnach, Ober, Ryan, Topa, Okert, Stewart, Jax, and Duran.  I can see the FO potentially non-tendering Kiriloff, Topa, and Okert, but that still leaves 9 players left to get raises.

In 2024, those 9 players are making $10.3M; if you assume $2M raises for each of those guys, that means you're paying them $28.3M, pushing the payroll to identical to this year's number.  It is clearly obvious that unless the Pohlads are willing to spend (which I doubt), Falvey will not be allowed to add payroll commitments without offloading salary.  The only ways to do that currently are trading Vazquez (probably not happening without eating so much of his salary that it's not really worth it), Correa, Buxton, or Lopez; none of the latter 3 either will or should be traded.

As such, the Twins only option is to acquire players in pre-arb status, and any player who moves the needle come playoff time who is also pre-arb will cost a king's ransom in prospects--the very prospects the Twins will need to remain competitive in 2025-2027, meaning any impact trade in 2024 is very likely  closing the Twins window for 2026/2027, barring significant increases in spending.  I for one don't think the current roster is worthy of essentially going all-in, and my guess is that come August, we will see that Falvine didn't think so either.

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

How about Walker Jenkins for Skubal?

Not enough.

7 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

So, if you can get 138 games from Lewis and he’s in the MVP conversation, is there any question that there’s more value with him v. a Skubal in Cy Young consideration having a 3.10 ERA over 32 starts?

Over recent history of last couple decades, what’s more valuable year to year going forward…….maybe not valuable, more repeatable of similar performance going forward?

I’d take the bat every time…….. potentially involved in affecting 115 more games per season. So the bat maybe only has 60 impact games relative to outcome. The pitcher may have a positive affect 25 of 32 starts. To me, seems the scale tips to the bat.

I guess if this is considered outside of fantasy baseball realm, would the Twins trade Lewis? To me, there’s zero chance of that happening unless he’s still hurt repeatedly in a couple years….,,way too talented to walk away from.

I don't believe the Twins would consider trading Lewis. The idea was to show the cost of a really good starting pitcher (Tarik Skubel) and get people to write who goes the other way in the moves/additions that are being suggested. It isn't really fair to say we will trade a couple of AA players below our top prospects for a reliable starting pitcher.

On a calmer note, Lewis as an MVP candidate for a season is an extremely long shot. I could see him getting hot in a playoff series. 138 games would have been a low barrier at one time but it is hard to see Royce Lewis reaching that for a few years. In parts of 3 seasons Lewis has appeared in 94 games and had 379 PA for an average of 31.3 games and 126 PA per year. We all hope Royce can play a full year or even 130 games but nobody is taking that bet at this time.

What is the goal for the team? A realistic one. Is it to just make the playoffs? If that is the case maybe upgrading the fourth starter is the answer. Win the wild card round? The fourth starter won’t help there so maybe the OP is correct.. Challenge for the division to avoid the wild card round? Maybe a 2 is in over A better chance to actually do something in the playoffs. 

Because the Pohlad's own the team, money will always be tight.  They will spend from time to time but never for an extended length of time.  If the topic is improving our starting pitching significantly at little cost, there is only one guy our there who can deliver on BOTH of those criteria.  He's been discussed before.

If we were to make a trade, I agree with the "Ober Principal" in that, if we're going to acquire someone, he not only needs to be better than Paddack, he must at minimum meet what Ober provides and better yet, exceed it.  That is the only way we get better in our rotation.

Adding fringe guys to our rotation like Shoemaker, Happ, DeSclafani and the like never have and never will have a positive impact.  The Twins will only tread water with guys like this.  They won't reach the beach.  

The bullpen could improve quite a bit if Stewart and Topa enter the mix and Varland moves into a BP role..  Especially if Stewart picks up where he left off.  The rotation is NOT going to improve if the twins do nothing.  We are expecting Lopez and Ryan to pitch like Aces.  Last night, Ryan fell far short of that.  We have shaved a decent amount of Cleveland's lead as we get ready to head into the All Star break, but I predict we won't catch them unless we give our rotation a shot in the arm.