Twins Roster Projection 2.0 (Pre-Spring Training Edition)

In the last month, since the first Roster Projection, the Twins claimed LHP Mike Strong and DFAd LHP Logan Darnell (who cleared waivers and remains in the organization). They added Carlos Quentin on a minor league deal.

Twins pitchers and catchers report this weekend so now is the time to see how things look as spring training starts.

It can’t come soon enough. Enough with the rumors and the sarcastic comments about the lack of activity. It is time to discuss what is really (almost) happening on the baseball field, not what is (or isn’t, if you prefer) going on in the front office and on the transaction pages.

Let’s start with the hitters and then get to the pitchers:

HITTERS

Catcher (2) - Kurt Suzuki/John Ryan Murphy - No change here. Suzuki and Murphy will be the two catchers in the big leagues to start the season, barring injury. The Twins will want to keep Suzuki under 385 at-bats so that his 2017 option doesn’t get picked up. Ideally these two split playing time 50/50 early in the season and in time Murphy takes over more playing time.

Depth: John Hicks will go to Rochester as the team’s #3 catcher, called up as needed if there is an injury. Beyond that Stuart Turner and Mitch Garver likely spend at least the first half of the 2016 season in Chattanooga, hoping to show they can contribute in some role in 2017.

Designated Hitter (1) - Byung Ho Park - There are a ton of intriguing Twins stories in 2016, and Byung Ho Park’s transition to MLB pitching is certainly one of them. No question that he has huge power potential, but he will also likely strike out a ton. He will also get time at first base.

First Base (1) - Joe Mauer - There have been several articles on Twins Daily in the last couple of days on Mauer’s comments regarding blurred vision due to his concussion. He has done eye exercises and will try hitting with sunglasses. Can his production jump back up from league average (overall) to league average first baseman? We shall find out. That would be a big improvement.

Depth: Kennys Vargas goes to AAA where he plays every day and becomes depth at first base and DH.

Second Base (1) - Brian Dozier - No question here. Dozier earned his spot on the 2015 All-Star team and even homered in his one plate appearance. What kind of numbers would he put up if he put together a full season like his last two first halves? Still just 28, that is certainly possible.

Depth: Jorge Polanco and James Beresford will both be at Rochester and both can play second base. Polanco is the better bat while Beresford can provide singles and better defense.

Third Base (1) - Trevor Plouffe - Those who watched the Twins five years ago still likely aren’t completely confident in saying that Plouffe is one of the best defensive third basemen in the league. He also has the ability to hit 20+ homers and drive in some runs in the middle of the lineup. Many of us are still surprised he's in a Twins uniform, but it’s not a bad thing to have his production in the lineup.

Depth: The Twins can move Sano to third base once a week, or if Plouffe were to get hurt.

Shortstop (1) - Eduardo Escobar - After hitting really well the last two seasons after being named the Twins starting shortstop, he finally will enter the season as the Twins Opening Day shortstop. How will he handle it? Will the doubles just keep coming? He’s had to overcome the perception that he’s “just a utility player” so hopefully he runs with this opportunity.

Depth: Danny Santana and Jorge Polanco are options at shortstop if Escobar misses any time.

Left Field (1) - Eddie Rosario - There are several questions in the Twins outfield, so Rosario could potentially play center field. However, with his range, patrolling the large area of left field is perfect. He showed off his arm no matter where he played. Offensively, he played well in his rookie season. However, he will have a lot to prove in 2016. Can he get his on-base percentage over .300? That will be the one stat I’ll be watching.

Center Field (1) - Byron Buxton - Two things are apparent based on comments from Twins Fest. First, the Twins really, really want Byron Buxton to show up to spring training ready to take over center field starting Opening Day. Secondly, Buxton will not just be handed the job. In my opinion, it won’t be so much about stats, but it will likely be about his ability to take good plate appearances, lay off sliders down and away, etc. If Buxton goes to AAA, Danny Santana likely is the center fielder to start the season.

Right Field (1) - Miguel Sano - My personal concern about Miguel Sano’s ability to play an adequate right field is very low. With his athleticism and instincts, he will catch what he gets to. He isn’t going to have great range, and there are worries in my mind about him knowing where to make the routine throws, angles, etc. Let’s be honest, this is about getting him out in the field to keep him in better shape. His bat is what will carry him.

Depth: Max Kepler will likely be the outfielder called up if there is an injury to any of the three starters. Kepler will go to Rochester and play every day. The Twins will not call him up to sit on the bench. If he’s not quite ready right away, then we could see Joe Benson, Darin Mastroianni or Ryan Sweeney. Who knows? Maybe suddenly Carlos Quentin will go back to 2007 form and get a shot. Yeah, probably not.

Bench (4) - Backup Catcher, Eduardo Nunez, Oswaldo Arcia, Danny Santana - Santana, Nunez and Arcia are out of options. Santana is an outfielder now, but he can also play both middle infield spots. Nunez can play each infield position and also both corner outfield spots. Arcia has that power potential. Used appropriately - versus right-handed pitching, playing little defense - he can provide value off the bench, or take on a more prominent role is he is able to take off.

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PITCHERS

STARTING PITCHERS

Starter 1/2/3 - Ervin Santana/Phil Hughes/Kyle Gibson - While the Twins like to say that everyone is competing for a job in 2016, it’s clear that, sans injury, these three are going to be in the starting rotation. Gibson was their pitcher of the year in 2015. He came in at eight percent above average and was more consistent than he was in 2014. Santana missed the first half of the season and after a slow start ended the season strong. Hughes’ 2015 season wasn’t good. He knows it. However, his 2014 season was tremendous. If healthy hopefully he can be closer to 2014.

Starter 4 - Tyler Duffey - As I’ve said, if it was up to me, Duffey’s name would be in ink in the 2016 rotation. He’s got absolutely nothing to prove in AAA anymore. After one bad start, he and his remarkable curve ball provided some of the team’s best starts down the stretch.

Starter 5 - Tommy Milone - Milone is often overlooked because he isn’t blessed with a big fastball. However he has put together a real solid career. If he is your team’s fifth starter, your team can be pretty solid. When he has command, he gets a lot of weak contact. Though he doesn’t throw hard, he is able to miss enough bats.

Depth: Ricky Nolasco will go to spring training as a starter. He’s at the point where he won’t be handed anything, even with his contract. However, if he can return to his pre-Twins form, he should in a rotation, whether it’s the Twins or somewhere else. Trevor May also is said to be going to spring training with a chance to be a starter. With the bullpen as full of question marks as it is, odds are the May will be in the 'pen. JO Berrios is the one we all want to see in the big leagues. With the aforementioned depth, it’s likely that Berrios will start the season in AAA. The Twins could keep Berrios down in the minor leagues for 12 or 13 days like the Cubs did with Kris Bryant last year. That would allow them to keep him under team control for an extra year. The Twins typically have not worried about that, frequently opening the season with top prospects. However, Berrios will likely have to be perfect, or near-perfect, to head north with the Twins to start the season. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if he does.

BULLPEN

Closer (1) - Glen Perkins - The three-time All-Star, who has closed out wins for the American League the last two season, has struggled in the second half the last two seasons. He’s been working out in Ft. Myers - working with the Twins training staff - most of the offseason instead of staying in Minnesota and hopes that will help keep him healthy throughout the season.

Right-Handed Relievers (5) - Kevin Jepsen, Trevor May, Casey Fien, Michael Tonkin, Ricky Nolasco - Jepsen came to the Twins at the July trade deadline and did a terrific job in eighth and ninth inning situations. He’s back and can become a free agent following the season. May showed signs that he can be a dominant late-inning reliever and will likely be there again. Fien was offered arbitration, and while his contract isn’t guaranteed, he will likely fill a seventh inning role again, a role he’s succeeded in when healthy. Michael Tonkin is out of options, so he’s a favorite to get a roster spot, but it’s going to be tight. He will have to earn a job. And, I’ve got Nolasco here because there may be an injury to someone else, or he’ll get a spot somewhere. Who knows? Maybe he can do well in the bullpen.

Left-Handed Relievers (1) - Fernando Abad - I’m sure the ideal situation would be they have a second lefty reliever to set up Perkins, but at the end of the day, the Twins need to put out the best bullpen that they can. Maybe that means just one lefty in middle relief. Abad was signed to a minor league contract and, in my opinion, is very likely to make the big league club (at least as of today) unless he has a terrible spring.

DEPTH - As Nick wrote last week in his bullpen battles article, there is quite a bit of depth. From inside the organization, former Rule 5 picks Ryan Pressly and JR Graham will likely be in AAA (though if the Twins were to start the season with 13 pitchers, Pressly has a good chance). Alex Meyer had ups and downs after his move to the bullpen last year, but it would be silly to give up on him. Brandon Kintzler has pitched a lot of games and a lot of innings over the last six seasons in Milwaukee. He was hurt last year, so he came in on a minor league contract. If the Twins want to go with a true situational lefty, Ryan O’Rourke certainly fits the bill.

Do they need a second left-hander? As Nick has pointed out several weeks ago, there remain some veteran left-handed relievers available via free agency. Of the nine pitchers he mentioned in the article, just two have signed in the last month. Their asking price has certainly come down. Guys like Neal Cotts, Franklyn Morales and Matt Thornton are likely available now for minor league contracts with a minimal $1.5 to $2 million base salary when they make the team. What Terry Ryan and his staff (and Twins fans) need to determine is whether getting experienced, aging relievers will be better for the team than the younger players with talent like Taylor Rogers and eventually Mason Melotakis or even Corey Williams.

JT Chargois is one of the young, talented, hard-throwing relievers who is on the 40-man roster. Therefore, a very strong camp and he would make an impression, maybe even make the team. If not, he and Nick Burdi and Jake Reed all head to the minors and wait their calls. Guys like Trevor Hildenberger and Brandon Peterson are certainly worth watching early in the season too.

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So there you have my just-as-spring-training-is-about-to-start Roster Projection. I don’t think there’s anything too earth shattering, but it is wise to go into spring training with a sense of what you would do and what you think the Twins might do. We always talk about how spring training stats mean so little in the regular season. It is interesting to think of which jobs are up for grabs and how those roster spots will be determined.

Where are we now?

This is a team with a lot of potential. No surprise of course as the Twins have had one of the stronger minor league systems for several years. Those players started coming up in 2014 and 2015. There are several more that will be up here in 2016 and 2017. So, how much of 2016 is about development, and how much is it about playing the players throughout the season that they feel give them the best chance to win at any given time? Ideally, of course, it’s both. That’s why having depth is going to be important. Teams go through far more than 25 players in any given season.

There are question marks heading into spring training. There are questions at two to four bullpen spots, depending upon your opinion and perspective. There is the question of when JO Berrios will arrive, and what it will mean for the rest of the rotation. Will Phil Hughes or Danny Santana or Joe Mauer have bounce-back seasons? And, probably most important, how will the young guys adjust. Will Byron Buxton make the adjustments to become a solid major league hitter which, with his speed and defense, will make him elite? Will Miguel Sano cut down some on the strikeouts and continue what he started in 2015, or will the league make some adjustments (as they did in September)? Will Tyler Duffey prove those final eight starts are what he can be? How will Byung Ho Park’s transition to MLB go?

Like every single team in major league baseball, the Twins have questions. And frankly, those questions can only be answered on the field. Next Monday, it all gets started.