Twins July Trade Candidates

As I’ve done in past years when the trade deadline approached and the Twins were (more clearly) sellers, I reviewed players in the Twins organization who could be dealt for something and gave a percent-likelihood that the player gets traded.

WHO IS SAFE (probably)?

Before digging into which players have at least some chance of being traded, it’s probably a good idea to consider which players will not be traded, for whatever reason. While the percent-likelihood that they are dealt may not be 0.00%, it is like 0.001% or similar.

• Joe Mauer will not be traded. He has a no-trade clause in his contract, and he became a 10-5 guy a long time ago.
  
• Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler - Young, high-ceiling hitters who are yet to reach their primes are immensely valuable. They each will make the league’s minimum at least one more year.
  
• Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia - See the previous list and substitute the word “pitchers” for “hitters.”
  
• Glen Perkins, Phil Hughes, Ryan O’Rourke, Trevor May - These are 60-day DL guys. While there would be teams interested in Trevor May if he was made available, it would be very unlikely the Twins would trade him when they likely have high hopes for him in 2018, and beyond.
  
• Bartolo Colon, Hector Santiago - These guys are closer to being DFAd than to being traded.
  

TRADE CANDIDATES

First and foremost, this list is intended for entertainment purposes only. Twins Daily does not recommend or encourage making wagers on trade deadline activities. These percentages are simply educated guesses designed to create discussion.

Brandon Kintzler - RHP (75%) - Brought in on a minor league contract following an injury-plagued 2015 season, Kintzler began in Rochester, was called up a month later, was the team’s closer a month or so later, and in 2017, he became an All-Star. He has been remarkably reliable. However, he is at the end of his contract and will be a free agent following the season. His ability to close, or work in tough situations in the seventh or eighth inning could make him valuable to any playoff-contending team. Another All-Star who is an impending free agent at season’s end, Pat Neshek, went to the Rockies for three minor leaguers (none were Top 15 prospect types). Since Kintzler is a little younger, the Twins might be able to get slightly more return for Kintzler.

Jaime Garcia - LHP (55%) - When the Twins acquired him on Monday, they were buying, just 2.5 games out of first place, and even closer in the wild card. Now the team may be a seller, and he has yet to make his first start for the organization. The Twins gave up 19-year-old Huascar Ynoa for Garcia with a willingness to eat much of Garcia’s remaining contract. The Twins could look to trade Garcia, continue paying him at least some of his remaining money ($4.5 million or so), and get a higher-ranking prospect in return.

Ervin Santana - RHP (40%) - Santana may be a bit older, but he’s on a friendly contract for 2018 with an option for 2019. In other words, he’s far from a rental. A team could keep him for nearly 2 ½ years if things go well. Santana was great in April and May. He hasn’t been particularly strong in June and July, but he’s a veteran that most teams would be happy to see starting for them in the playoffs. The Rangers are in about the same situation and they’ve made Yu Darvish available, so the Twins would be wise to at least make Santana available and see what offers role in. He could be a backup plan to Darvish or Sonny Gray for the Yankees and Dodgers, while he makes a ton of sense for the Astros.

Eduardo Escobar - UT (37.5%) - This name might surprise many reading, but it does make a lot of sense. Escobar is beloved in the clubhouse, but if the Twins were to offer him arbitration this coming offseason, he is likely to make $4 million or more. That’s a lot for a utility guy. Now, if he plays as much and as well as he has in 2017 next year, he’d be more than worth it. But with Dozier, Polanco and maybe Nick Gordon and/or Engelb Vielma in the picture in the middle infield, and Ehire Adrianza fully capable of being a solid utility infielder for $3 million less, dealing Escobar while he’s playing so well may make a lot of sense. They could get a similar haul to what the Giants got for Eduardo Nunez this week.

Chris Gimenez - C (35%) - Gimenez clearly has a ton of respect in the game, particularly for his charisma and leadership skills. On field, he hasn’t been particularly good, but teams love adding guys like this down the stretch. The Twins wouldn’t get much, maybe even just some cash and a low level prospect, but I can see teams asking for him. It would allow Mitch Garver to be up for the final two months of the season as well.

Matt Belisle - RHP (30%) - Belisle’s overall numbers do not look good because of a handful of really bad outings, but he has been really good the last two months. He’s given up just one earned run in his last 16 outings (18.2 innings). The return won’t be real high, but he can be a solid 5th or 6th bullpen option for a good team.

Robbie Grossman - DH (20%) - Grossman was yet another strong minor league deal for Terry Ryan last year. Since joining the Twins, he has been a very productive hitter, primarily for his on-base skills, but he’s provided occasional pop too. He isn’t ideal to have in the outfield defensively, but there could be a team looking for a bench bat who could provide some versatility. He will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, and if he stays with the Twins, it would be an obvious choice to offer it to.

Kyle Gibson - RHP (17.5%) - The right-hander was the Twins pitcher of the year in 2015, but the last two years have been a struggle for him. He had one of his best starts of the year on Saturday, and by Tuesday, he was sent to Rochester where he pitched well on Thursday night. In his second run at arbitration this offseason, Gibson could make a raise, potentially getting $4.5-5 million. The Twins likely would not pick that up, but Gibson’s got enough pedigree that there could be a team out there that thinks they know how to turn things around for the right-hander. And they may be right. For some reason, he seems like a perfect fit with the Cardinals.

(One of) ByungHo Park/Kennys Vargas - DH (15%) - While teams likely won’t come to the Twins asking about these AAA (maybe AAAA) DH/1B, the Twins could go to teams looking for a bench bat, backup 1B/DH type in an attempt to drop one of them. Maybe they can find a taker. I thought Tampa made a lot of sense for Park since Logan Morrison and now Lucas Duda both bat left-handed.

Eddie Rosario - OF (12.5%) - Rosario has arguably been the Twins best hitter the last six weeks, so this would be a case of trying to sell high on Rosario. The decision to make him available would likely be based on the front office’s willingness to believe that Rosario’s improved plate discipline and walk rate over the last couple of months is sustainable.

Brian Dozier - 2B (10%) - There will be teams that will inquire about the availability of Dozier. Clearly the Twins were wise to not deal him straight-up for Jose Deleon. However, to this point Dozier has returned to a level at or slightly above his 2014 and 2015 numbers, as opposed to his historic performance in 2016. That’s still a valuable player, but the Twins will (and should) ask for more than teams are likely willing to offer. There are a lot of quality second basemen in baseball, and one of them, Ian Kinsler, is very likely to be traded which means there may not be a lot of teams in need of a second baseman. The Twins will happily keep him unless overwhelmed.

Ryan Pressly - RHP (5%) - Teams could or should watch Pressly and see the 96-98 mph fastball, and see that sharp breaking ball, and realize that he’s got some great stuff. Pitching coaches and coordinators likely believe that they can provide said pitcher with that little piece that he’s missing to turn things around. Pressly’s got stuff to be a great late-inning reliever, and he’ll probably get there some day. The Twins would be wise to hang on to him, especially since he can be optioned still this year. No need to sell low.

Taylor Rogers - LHP (2.5%) - Although I think Rogers could be part of a strong bullpen for the Twins for years ahead, I am including his name here. When I look at what the Marlins got for reliever David Phelps (who is similar, though right-handed, and older), I’d be incredibly curious what other teams might offer for a left-hander like Rogers who has been great for the Twins until the last few games. Unlikely to be dealt, but if a team is willing to give up three or four minor leaguers for him, I’d be curious.

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It’s fun to guess what the team will do, but we still don’t know to what level the front office views this team. Sellers? Sellers only if overwhelmed? Buyers for long-term, high-talent assets? A combination of all of the above.

There may be some surprises in the list above, and by Monday, there could be other surprises, maybe some minor leaguers. It will be as interesting a trade deadline as we have seen in recent years. There could be five moves, or they could do nothing, and a case could be made for both strategies. At the end of the day, each trade (made or not made) would have to be judged on its own merit.

So, what do you think? Do you agree or disagree with the list above or any of the percentages? As a reminder, it’s important to remember that several of these player trades may make more sense in August rather than the July deadline.