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The Twins front office is in a fairly good place heading into the 2023-24 offseason, with a lot of continuity built into their division-winning roster and relatively few blatantly obvious needs. But they do have needs.
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Here are the boxes the front office must check this winter:
☐ Find a front-end starter to replace Sonny Gray.
The Twins will extend Gray a qualifying offer. Presumably Gray will turn it down. From there, it becomes very difficult to see the two sides coming back together, though it's not impossible. (See: Carl Pavano, 2011.)
That means the Twins front office is tasked with replacing their 2023 team MVP. Gray is going to leave some big shoes to fill as the co-ace who paired with Pablo López to lead one of the best rotations in franchise history. He ranked third in the majors in ERA, trailing only the two surefire Cy Young winners (Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole). Gray was individually worth more than five wins, according to FanGraphs. He was also the team's best pitcher in 2022.
It's a big void that will be tough to offset. But the good news is that the front office should have considerable money to spend – their current projected 2024 payroll is at least $30 million lower than this year's – and plenty of intriguing trade chips in their overloaded position-player corps.
The latter is especially noteworthy, since this regime has shown a clear knack for trading to acquire frontline starters, with a track record that includes Kenta Maeda, López, and of course Gray.
☐ Gamble on another high-upside starting pitcher.
Even if the Twins are able to once again pull off a high-scale move to acquire a high-end starter, they shouldn't stop there. The planned 2023 rotation depth included not just Gray, but also Maeda and Tyler Mahle, who are free agents as well. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are nice to have on hand, but the front office should be targeting high-upside additions to raise the ceiling on this unit.
The presence of so many proven solid options gives them a stable enough floor to take some risks, which is a fun place to be. The Twins might consider pursuing an opportunistic trade – like, say, for disgruntled Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah – or targeting one of the numerous buy-low candidates in free agency, a group that will include Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and James Paxton.
Pete Maki's pitching program instills confidence that the Twins can mine some gold, and suddenly Minnesota is a rather attractive destination for starters.
☐ Make decisions on long-tenured veterans.
Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco: they've been around longer than almost anyone in the clubhouse, and they are both coming off quality seasons (albeit with some ups and downs). The Twins have team options on both for 2024, and it's all but assured those options be exercised. That doesn't mean they will be back.
Both Kepler and Polanco could draw significant trade interest for a team that – as we've discussed – needs to backfill some pitching. Meanwhile, the Twins have young talent pushing these longtime mainstays.
On another front, the Twins must make a decision regarding their other longest-tenured player: Byron Buxton. While trading the hobbled 29-year-old isn't an option, the front office needs to reach a firm stance on what they can expect from Buxton in 2024, and orchestrate their roster-building accordingly.
☐ Figure out the plan at first base.
Alex Kirilloff is sadly headlong down the same path as Buxton – too frequently injured to be relied upon from a planning standpoint. His upcoming shoulder labrum surgery leaves the future of first base in a state of limbo.
One plan would be to go out and target a new player who could potentially take over as full-time first baseman if Kirilloff can't go. Another would be to think creatively about internal options. For example, top prospect Brooks Lee looks ready to go and currently has no clear path to the big-league roster, with a crowded infield picture. But if first base is open...
☐ Re-evaluate the hitting program.
To their credit, David Popkins and the hitters pulled things together in the second half. Buoyed by the immediate success of rookies like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner, Minnesota's offense was among the league's most potent after the break Still, their whiff-heavy profile continued to make them an especially boom-or-bust unit, and ultimately led to their exit from the playoffs. After setting a new MLB strikeout record as an offense, Minnesota struck out 28 times and scored three total runs in Games 3 and 4 against Houston.
It doesn't sound like the Twins are inclined to fully disassociate from this offensive identity – "I would rather have a guy have a great at-bat, go deep into a count and possibly strikeout, but give us a chance to actually give us a baserunner or actually look for a ball in the middle of the zone and pulverize it," said Derek Falvey – but they need to find some balance.
Whether that means shaking up the roster a bit, targeting players who specialize in hitting for contact, or making alterations to their training and instruction programs (though it sounds like the main coaches will be back), there are several ways the Twins could approach this.
☐ Extend at least one young building block.
The future is here. This is a great moment to lock down some stability, cost assurance, and long-term control. The three rookies mentioned above are all candidates for extensions that will provide them with financial security and the Twins with a bit of extended control. (I favored trying to opportunistically strike a deal like this with Lewis last spring, but alas, that ship sailed.)
The Twins could also consider extending one of their younger pitchers, like Ryan, Ober or Jhoan Duran. Another option would be to take the Rays approach and strike a long-term contract with a top prospect who's yet to debut, such as Lee.
The bottom line is that, with relatively few major outside needs to address this offseason, the Twins can look inward and aim to take care of business that sets up their proven internal core for longevity and success.
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