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    Twins Being Overwhelmed By Underperformance


    Nick Nelson

    The quotes provided by Twins owner Jim Pohlad in a much-discussed Chip Scoggins column that appeared in the Star Tribune last week included some controversial and heavily scrutinized comments.

    In my mind, the general sense of bewilderment and cluelessness conveyed by the team owner in his answers was utterly uninspiring, and representative of leadership that is largely ambivalent to the product on the field.

    But to be fair, the core points Pohlad was making were not wrong.

    Image courtesy of Brad Rempel, USA Today

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    Expressing unequivocal confidence in the general manager who has already dropped four of the 25 players that were on his Opening Day roster, or the second-year manager whose team has looked remarkably unprepared to compete most nights, in the face of an 8-23 start is not a great look. However, it is understandable to an extent.

    As Dan Wade astutely pointed out here on Friday, the Twins aren’t really well served by putting anyone on the hot seat publicly right now. And really, trying to heap mountains of blame on either Terry Ryan or Paul Molitor misses the point.

    While there have been plenty of questionable decisions, this WAS a talent-laden roster. This WAS a team on the rise. This WAS unanimously viewed as one of the best prospect pipelines in the game.

    If even half the players on this club were playing up to their established ability level, things would not be nearly so dire. This is especially frustrating with the veterans, who were asked to fill a leadership void that emerged with Torii Hunter’s retirement. Instead they have helped set the tone for this miserable stretch of baseball with repeated gaffes and failures.

    Let’s take a look, position by position, at the contagious underperforming that has plagued this Twins roster.

    Catcher: The Twins have made their own bed here by continuously miscasting Kurt Suzuki as a starting player, but he’s playing drastically below this standard. The veteran has a .679 career OPS, and a .670 OPS in two years with the Twins. His current mark is .560, and he's hitting .176 with runners in scoring position. Of course, there’s no need to even remark on the subpar production from John Ryan Murphy prior to his demotion.

    First Base: The lone bright spot. Joe Mauer has had a sensational season and of course it’s going largely unnoticed because the team has been so crummy. The same goes for Byung Ho Park, although his novelty as a foreign star and rookie has enabled him to enjoy some nice attention.

    Second Base: Brian Dozier has picked up where he left off, and that's not a good thing. His current .220/.309/.385 slash line bears disconcerting resemblance to his .210/.280/.359 after the break last year. Fortunately, he has been showing signs of heating up lately.

    Shortstop: Eduardo Escobar landed on the disabled list after suffering a groin strain on Friday, and maybe that's just as well. He could use a reset after a first month that saw him fail at the key things that made him an effective player over the last two years. Specifically, I'm talking about hitting for power and playing reliable defense. His .289 slugging percentage is down 150 points from 2015 and he has already committed five errors at shortstop after totaling four last year.

    Third Base: Although Trevor Plouffe has been hitting for decent power when he's been on the field, his plate approach has deteriorated. The 29-year-old has drawn only two walks in 65 plate appearances, resulting in a hideous .277 on-base percentage. He's hardly stepping up in the way you'd hope as one of the roster's cornerstone vets.

    Left Field: A demotion can't be far off for Eddie Rosario, who is batting .196 with a .534 OPS. He's swinging at a whopping 40 percent of pitches outside the zone, and despite his reputation as a "bad ball hitter" he's not doing anything with the garbage he's hacking at, as illustrated by a .222 BABIP and only five extra-base hits in 98 trips.

    Center Field: What is there to be said about Byron Buxton? It was tough to set expectations for him coming into this year given his lack of experience, but no one could have anticipated a sub-.500 OPS with strikeouts in half of his plate appearances. Even accounting for the expected sophomore slumps and rookie learning curves, what we've seen from Rosario and Buxton at the plate has been disheartening.

    Right Field: Miguel Sano's .707 OPS is down more than 200 points from the mark he posted as a rookie. Oddly he hasn't been hitting for power even though he leads baseball in line drive percentage. I fully expect him to come around and get hot at some point soon but there's no doubt that he has let the team down thus far.

    Rotation: You've got Ervin Santana and Phil Hughes, two veterans who signed long-term contracts to be foundations in the rotation, failing to complete even four innings in their latest starts, at a time where the team is desperately in need of a spark. Tommy Milone was about as bad as he's ever been before his demotion. Kyle Gibson, a guy who was trending up in every way, pitched horrendously before going on the shelf.

    Bullpen: Glen Perkins has been unavailable. Kevin Jepsen has been ineffective. That 1-2 punch was the source of whatever confidence this unit could have justified. Multiple relievers (Casey Fien, Ryan O'Rourke, J.R. Graham) pitched poorly enough in one of month of the season to essentially erase themselves from the team's plans.

    Each year, invariably, some players step it up and excel to the max of their ability while others come up short. Right now the scale is tipped so far in the wrong direction for the Twins that they barely look like a competitive team most nights.

    While it's a cliche to point out that the manager can't go out and swing the bat or throw pitches from the mound, it's true. It might be tidier to pin these horrible results on the skipper, or the hitting/pitching coach, but the messy truth is that it's the players who are wearing this and only they can stem the tide.

    These guys know how to play ball. It's about damn time they started.

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    Look, I admire the amount of turd polishing you attempted here, but Aaron Hicks is just not good at baseball.  I'm not sure how many hundreds of at-bats you require to demonstrate this, but we're at 860.  And he's been putrid.

     

    We appear to have targeted another putrid player, but let's not pretend we gave anything up.  The problem was that this was the solution to C and nothing was done to insure CF.

     

    Aaron Hicks and his god awful play wouldn't have sufficed as Plan B either.

     

    I believe Hicks has more to offer baseball than Mastro...

    When we drafted Hicks alot more teams wanted him as a pitcher than a position player. If we had him still how would he look as a power arm in the bullpen. We don't seem to be able to see the tree through the forest. Sharp baseball people could have done this with some vision.

    Look, I admire the amount of turd polishing you attempted here, but Aaron Hicks is just not good at baseball. I'm not sure how many hundreds of at-bats you require to demonstrate this, but we're at 860. And he's been putrid.

     

    We appear to have targeted another putrid player, but let's not pretend we gave anything up. The problem was that this was the solution to C and nothing was done to insure CF.

     

    Aaron Hicks and his god awful play wouldn't have sufficed as Plan B either.

    Well 860 isn't always enough. Some players take longer than others to figure it out.

    Hicks was a nearly league average hitter last year.

    And, has roughly the same OPS+ as Torii had through 860 ab's.

    He showed last year that he can be a good 4th ofer/fringe starter (1.2 WAR), and may not be done developing.

     

    Well 860 isn't always enough. Some players take longer than others to figure it out.
    Hicks was a nearly league average hitter last year.
    And, has roughly the same OPS+ as Torii had through 860 ab's.
    He showed last year that he can be a good 4th ofer/fringe starter (1.2 WAR), and may not be done developing.

     

    Another point in favor of Hicks as the 4th OF would have been that he's already a pretty good hitter when batting right-handed  (.257/.347/.418).    That made him a good choice to platoon with Arcia and pinch hit for him, in addition to his ability to serve as an excellent defensive sub for him.   It would also make him a good choice to spot start for Rosario occasionally against tough lefties.

     

    Well 860 isn't always enough. Some players take longer than others to figure it out.
    Hicks was a nearly league average hitter last year.
    And, has roughly the same OPS+ as Torii had through 860 ab's.
    He showed last year that he can be a good 4th ofer/fringe starter (1.2 WAR), and may not be done developing.

     

    You know who he is a lot more like?  

     

    Jason Repko.  Let's stop polishing Jason Repko into Torii Hunter.  He's still Jason Repko.  Plan B shouldn't be Jason Repko.

     

    Did saying that name four times plant it firmly enough for some of you to take real stock of what Aaron Hicks actually is and not what you want him to be?

    Edited by TheLeviathan

     

    Too long to quote completely...

    ... but I agree with basically everything. In order to compete this year, they needed the established players to hold the line, so to speak, and they needed a few of the young guys (Buxton, Sano, Berrios) to turn into superstars. So far neither is happening.

    You know who he is a lot more like?  

     

    Jason Repko.  Let's stop polishing Jason Repko into Torii Hunter.  He's still Jason Repko.  Plan B shouldn't be Jason Repko.

     

    Did saying that name four times plant it firmly enough for some of you to take real stock of what Aaron Hicks actually is and not what you want him to be?

    I went to one Saints game last summer to check out the new Field, who was playing RF for the opposing team? Jason Repko.

     

    That being said, Hicks is a good defender and can hit LH pitching pretty well. I think at worst he has a floor of very useful 4th OFer who starts a 2/3 times a week. Which is pretty useful, just maybe not what people here had hoped for

     

    I went to one Saints game last summer to check out the new Field, who was playing RF for the opposing team? Jason Repko.

    That being said, Hicks is a good defender and can hit LH pitching pretty well. I think at worst he has a floor of very useful 4th OFer who starts a 2/3 times a week. Which is pretty useful, just maybe not what people here had hoped for

     

    I think he some value as a bench player, but his defense is overrated in CF (IMO).  He'snot good enough for a plan B for a risk like Buxton, not for me at least.

    I think he some value as a bench player, but his defense is overrated in CF (IMO).  He'snot good enough for a plan B for a risk like Buxton, not for me at least.

    That's fair. I'd prefer him as a plan B than Danny Santana or Darin Mastroiani

     

    I think he some value as a bench player, but his defense is overrated in CF (IMO).  He'snot good enough for a plan B for a risk like Buxton, not for me at least.

     

    On the other hand,  Aaron Hicks was Plan A for two years running, when his floor/worst case scenario/tenth percentile projection was worse than it is now.

     

    I completely agree that Hicks would have been a less-than-ideal 'break glass in case of spontaneous prospect combustion' option this year to placehold in CF if Buxton needed to brew longer.   But Hicks would also have been, at the very least, a step up fom the heady days of Clete Thomas trying to put out the fire in center field when Hicks himself flamed out in 2013.

     

    And yet despite the Twins ending up turning to a worse option in Mastro again,  it's hard for me to be very down on the Twins for trading Hicks.    But it's not because I don't think they gave up a strong 4th OF candidate in Hicks.

     

    No,  my reason for being ok with the Hicks trade was that it showed a realization (albeit an awfully belated one) on the part of the Twins that their faith in Suzuki as a starter was dreadfully misplaced.

     

    That's how low my expectations have sunk with the Twins:   didn't like that they gave up Hicks,  didn't like who they got for him,  and yet happy about the trade because it meant that the Twins had finally realized Suzuki < MLB starter.

     

    Baby steps.

    Edited by LaBombo

    On the other hand,  Aaron Hicks was Plan A for two years running, when his floor/worst case scenario/tenth percentile projection was worse than it is now.

     

    I completely agree that Hicks would have been a less-than-ideal 'break glass in case of spontaneous prospect combustion' option this year to placehold in CF if Buxton needed to brew longer.   But Hicks would also have been, at the very least, a step up fom the heady days of Clete Thomas trying to put out the fire in center field when Hicks himself flamed out in 2013.

     

    And yet despite the Twins ending up turning to a worse option in Mastro again,  it's hard for me to be very down on the Twins for trading Hicks.    But it's not because I don't think they gave up a strong 4th OF candidate in Hicks.

     

    No,  my reason for being ok with the Hicks trade was that it showed a realization (albeit an awfully belated one) on the part of the Twins that their faith in Suzuki as a starter was dreadfully misplaced.

     

    That's how low my expectations have sunk with the Twins:   didn't like that they gave up Hicks,  didn't like who they got for him,  and yet happy about the trade because it meant that the Twins had finally realized Suzuki < MLB starter.

     

    Baby steps.

    I don't think they expected Murphy to displace Suzuki as the starter.

    On the other hand,  Aaron Hicks was Plan A for two years running, when his floor/worst case scenario/tenth percentile projection was worse than it is now.

     

    I completely agree that Hicks would have been a less-than-ideal 'break glass in case of spontaneous prospect combustion' option this year to placehold in CF if Buxton needed to brew.

    Baby steps.

    Yeah, he might have been better than Clete Thomas or whomever, but if we are going to keep calling up raw AA center fielders we should have a much better plan B. Hicks has been putrid, again, and wouldn't be doing this team any more favors than Murphy did.

     

    Yeah, he might have been better than Clete Thomas or whomever, but if we are going to keep calling up raw AA center fielders we should have a much better plan B. Hicks has been putrid, again, and wouldn't be doing this team any more favors than Murphy did.

     

    The Manager doesn't seem to understand platoons any better than the previous manager either, so I will agree if Hicks was here he probably wouldn't be used the way he could be valuable. 

     

    IE: Since Mid-April when Arcia started receiving steady playing time, 4 of the 6 games he hasn't started has been vs Righties.  Kepler's 1 start in a week coming vs Rodon, etc. 

     

    The Manager doesn't seem to understand platoons any better than the previous manager either, so I will agree if Hicks was here he probably wouldn't be used the way he could be valuable. 

     

    IE: Since Mid-April when Arcia started receiving steady playing time, 4 of the 6 games he hasn't started has been vs Righties.  Kepler's 1 start in a week coming vs Rodon, etc. 

     

    Yeah, we just need a new GM and manager to come in.  Take a fresh look at how things have been running.  Laugh to each other a bit.  And then find the low hanging fruit that is laying all over this franchise.  TR, Gardy, and Molitor have been stepping around it for years.

     

    On a side note, Fowler would have been nice last year as a stop gap CF and corner OF as Levi points out, many of us were pounding the table for Colby Rasmus.  He has been awesome the last two years and TR loves his one year deals (1-8 last year and took the qualifying 1-16 this year).  .789 OPS last year and .830 this year in all 3 OF spots.  A slight improvement over what we have been rolling out there and he is only 29.

     

    He could have been had for Hunter's salary last year, or Milone and Duensing's.  This year, Fien and Milone would have covered half of it. You know, the guys we just gave away

    Edited by tobi0040

     

    Yeah, we just need a new GM and manager to come in.  Take a fresh look at how things have been running.  Laugh to each other a bit.  And then find the low hanging fruit that is laying all over this franchise.  TR, Gardy, and Molitor have been stepping around it for years.

     

    On a side note, Fowler would have been nice last year as a stop gap CF and corner OF as Levi points out, many of us were pounding the table for Colby Rasmus.  He has been awesome the last two years and TR loves his one year deals (1-8 last year and took the qualifying 1-16 this year).  .789 OPS last year and .830 this year in all 3 OF spots.  A slight improvement over what we have been rolling out there and he is only 29.

     

    He could have been had for Hunter's salary last year, or Milone and Duensing's.  This year, Fien and Milone would have covered half of it. You know, the guys we just gave away

     

    We still have Tommy. He's scheduled to start for Rochester tonight.

     

    Yeah, we just need a new GM and manager to come in.  Take a fresh look at how things have been running.  Laugh to each other a bit.  And then find the low hanging fruit that is laying all over this franchise.  TR, Gardy, and Molitor have been stepping around it for years.

     

    On a side note, Fowler would have been nice last year as a stop gap CF and corner OF as Levi points out, many of us were pounding the table for Colby Rasmus.  He has been awesome the last two years and TR loves his one year deals (1-8 last year and took the qualifying 1-16 this year).  .789 OPS last year and .830 this year in all 3 OF spots.  A slight improvement over what we have been rolling out there and he is only 29.

     

    He could have been had for Hunter's salary last year, or Milone and Duensing's.  This year, Fien and Milone would have covered half of it. You know, the guys we just gave away

     

    I was big time pounding the table for Rasmus after the 2014 season, of course they preferred familiarity to someone who could play CF, was younger, had upside, etc.  

     

    Austin Jackson got 1 year $5million, he hasn't hit much, but we all saw the defense over the weekend.  If you had traded Plouffe, Jackson is a pretty damn nice RFer and backup plan at CF.  

     

     

     

     

    I don't think they expected Murphy to displace Suzuki as the starter.

     

    I was going to do an article just before opening day, entitled:

     

    " Murphy.... 54-81-100?"

     

    The gist of said article was to have TD community members guess which number of games would be closest to the number of starts at Catcher for JR Murphy. At that point in time, my guess is most would have put their guess at above "81" and many more at "100", as the consensus coming out ofST seemed to be that Murphy would easily ease into the starting role by the ASG.

     

    I'm thinking the organization's projection would have been between 54 and 81.

     

     

    My guess would have been "just below 54". ***

     

    ***(I just didn't know that should have been more clearly stated as 54 starts for Rochester.)

     

     

     

    We should hold ourselves to a slightly higher bar for CF.

     

    Hicks as a backup plan if Buxton fails is a higher bar than trading away your young, struggling depth.  Elevating players who aren't ready, and then turning to Mastro when it fails, that is a window into the organization's overall failure.

     

    I'm not saying that Hicks is ever going to be a viable MLB player.  But when you are rebuilding, having young athletic players to backup young athletic players is a formula for success.  You never know when or if athletic talent will take off in MLB, why trade it for a more limited player who hasn't shown anything.

     

    Hicks as a backup plan if Buxton fails is a higher bar than trading away your young, struggling depth.  Elevating players who aren't ready, and then turning to Mastro when it fails, that is a window into the organization's overall failure.

     

    I'm not saying that Hicks is ever going to be a viable MLB player.  But when you are rebuilding, having young athletic players to backup young athletic players is a formula for success.  You never know when or if athletic talent will take off in MLB, why trade it for a more limited player who hasn't shown anything.

     

    If that's the extent of your bar for backup plans than you must have liked Danny Santana and Jordan Schafer?

     

    I guess my bar is "be at least competent baseball players" - of which we've had no one who qualifies for about 5 or 6 years now.  And Aaron Hicks would've been no different.

     

    If that's the extent of your bar for backup plans than you must have liked Danny Santana and Jordan Schafer?

     

    I guess my bar is "be at least competent baseball players" - of which we've had no one who qualifies for about 5 or 6 years now.  And Aaron Hicks would've been no different.

    Aaron Hicks had virtually a league average bat last year (97 OPS+) in 390 PAs, with enough defensive ability to play CF, at age 25, and trending up with the bat.

     

    That isn't "at least competent?"

     

    Is it possible you're letting your opinion of him influence your analysis?

    FWIW, Hicks hit his second HR last night, and added a sac fly in a Yankees win. He has basically doubled his OPS the past week, although it is still poor, he has put some distance between himself and Murphy in their "competition".

     

    Although I suppose Murphy has shortened the distance too, in a way, by moving to Rochester. :)

     

    Aaron Hicks had virtually a league average bat last year (97 OPS+) in 390 PAs, with enough defensive ability to play CF, at age 25, and trending up with the bat.

     

    That isn't "at least competent?"

     

    Is it possible you're letting your opinion of him influence your analysis?

     

    No, it's not.  My opinion of him is based on him being a bad baseball player and there is ample evidence of it.  

     

    We're talking about a player that came back in July last year and was pretty good - other than that one short stretch of the season he was considerably below average.  A guy who hits 10 homeruns in a week and then absolutely sucks for 5 weeks may normalize into a semi-competent player but that didn't change the fact that he was a black hole of terrible play for 5 weeks.  

     

    That's what Hicks is.  He can't do anything consistently enough to be a competent player you can rely on.




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