Trading Places

The irony is that the Royals used the Twins model for their rebuild. They took their time, trusted scouting, and let guys play. Like the Twins from 5 years ago, the Royals had to rebuild their system, and had a lot of high picks to do that. Gordon, Moustakus and Hosmer were all Top 5 picks, and they complemented them well. 

Not sure if this is fully accurate.  Those 3 guys you name are hardly cornerstones that the Royals success is built upon -- when they went to the World Series two years ago, Moustakas had a 75 OPS+, Hosmer 99.  Gordon has been better, particularly defensively, but he's only a 109 OPS+ since they returned to relevance in 2013.  Cain and Davis have arguments to be their team MVP in recent years, and both were acquired in trade.

I'd argue that the Royals success owes more to a plan to exploit market inefficiencies around defense, limiting strikeouts at the plate, and dominant relief pitching, than simply waiting around for draft picks to develop.  They were still mired in losing when they shipped out Greinke for Cain and Escobar, as well as when they sent out a top prospect in Myers for Davis and Shields.

I'm not sure that's ever been the Twins model for rebuilding.

I just said they were top 5 picks. Of course they had other high-quality players. But most of it was drafting and trading vets for minor leaguers and letting them develop. 

Most MLB teams are built from drafting, though, no?  It's not like the Twins are particularly unique in that regard, or that the Royals had to specifically emulate the Twins to achieve that.

Would you say the Mets and Giants teams that the Royals recently faced in the World Series also "used the Twins model" for their rebuilds too?

But in the late-90s, they did trade vets, like Dave Hollins (Ortiz), Roberto Kelly (Mays), Aguilera, Knoblauch, Pierzynski, etc.

 

The Twins aren't the model now, but they certainly were 15 years ago... which is relavent to where the Royals were 8-10 years ago.

Not all "vets" are created equal.  Hollins and Kelly were rental players (the kind that no longer brought aggressive trade returns anymore 10 years ago).  The modern equivalent trades are Willingham, Carroll, etc., and have returned virtually nothing, and have been meaningless to the Royals most recent rebuild.

That's not who the Royals traded in Greinke, although Knoblauch way back when is a fair comp.

And the Royals certainly didn't pattern their Myers trade after the Twins!

Again, I didn't say that it was something to credit the Twins for... just an ironic thing that the Royals talked publicly about their plans to model the Twins.

But it wasn't until they clearly broke from those plans (Myers trade, Cueto trade) that they actually achieved any success.

And, I think most here would agree that when the Twins were winning from '01-10, it was based on defense, making contact (being piranhas), and their strong bullpens. 

In generic platitudes, maybe.  Where was the emphasis on defense when we trotted out an aging Shannon Stewart to protect a late inning lead in a playoff game?  Cuddyer at 2B?  Cuddyer and Rondell White manning the corner OF spots?

Heck, even the "piranha" stuff was more talk than action -- the Royals have actually emphasized SPEED to achieve those results, not just relied on Nick Punto's fluctuating BABIP.

And while the Twins had successful bullpens during that run, they were really nothing like the Royals recent pens.  Davis is a BEAST, and Herrera is becoming one too.  And they still bolstered those guys with Madson last year, and Soria this year.  Meanwhile, various "valued contributors" to our pen were blowing playoff leads annually, it seems, and our reinforcements were, what, Todd Jones and Matt Capps?

With the exception of the strikeouts at the plate, that was the exact model of the Twins in the early 2000s.

I addressed this upthread, but there were some sizable holes in the early 2000s Twins commitment to defense.

And while the Twins pen was solid and serviceable for much of the decade, I don't recall it ever being considered a weapon for the team.  It was rarely better than two-deep anyway, as far as arms you would trust in a playoff game (and even those arms blew their share of games).

And while it does seem like limiting strikeouts at the plate may not be a huge deal, that (plus speed) is a definite offensive identity for the Royals.  Even when they had some good hitters, the Twins never really had an offensive identity, and perhaps that showed in their lackluster postseason efforts -- having a real, thorough "piranha" game plan, rather than counting on BABIP luck, might have helped those lineups focus and produce more runs when it mattered?

Hawkins, Balfour, Rincoln, Guardardo, and Nathan.... I think we forget just how good the pens were during the early 2000s... we rarely lost a lead in the late innings.

They didn't have any more than 2 of those guys at once, really.  Hawkins and Guardado were gone by 2004, which was the first season for Nathan and the first year where Rincon had graduated from long relief.  Balfour never really did much of anything for us, outside of that one playoff game vs NY -- 4.63 ERA in 68 IP across two seasons, in neutral leverage.

No doubt they were very good pens, probably league-leading some years, but they were never really a "weapon" like the recent pens the Royals have created.  The Twins were seemingly always content with a solid closer and setup man, and then filling in solid but unspectacular performers around them.  To say that the recent Royals pen is modeled after the old Twins one is just not true.

The Twins consistently had shutdown pens during that timeframe.  I just mentioned a few names.  One of the going theories on teams that overperformed their pythag numbers came from the Twins and their pen.  We may not have the Royals pen today, but the early 2000s Twins had some very good bullpens.

Not really disputing any of this.  But it's not really comparing bullpen quality vs the current Royals, it's comparing bullpen plans, composition, expectations, deployment, etc.  The Twins pen was good, but was really just viewed as another piece on a solid all-around team (pieces which often seemed to fail us at crunch time, sadly).

The Royals have invested in their whole pen as a weapon, to explicitly carry the team.  The Twins never did that.

Just like the Royals also invested in contact, speed, and defense to help do the same.  The Twins never did that either, at best they seemed to luck into good BABIP seasons from piranha bench players (who they then rewarded with DH assignments in the playoffs, future starting roles, etc.).

Again, not saying the Twins were bad or any component of the team was bad, but the Twins plan and construction isn't particularly comparable to that of the current Royals.