Twins Trade Candidate Breakdown: Chris Paddack

What's Up with Chris Paddack
He finished the season on the injured list, although it sounds like he was on the verge of being able to return and might have tried to do so in the playoffs if the Twins didn't collapse and miss out. Alas, he didn't appear at all in the second half, finishing with fewer than 90 innings thrown in yet another campaign plagued by arm problems.

He's entering the final year of a contract extension signed in January of 2023, set to earn $7.5 million at age 29 in 2025. Over the course of three seasons in Minnesota, he has pitched to 4.82 ERA over 116 innings, including 4.99 in 17 starts this year. 

The Case for Trading Chris Paddack
It's pretty straightforward and self-explanatory. Coming off a fourth consecutive injury-shortened season, Paddack is a major question mark going forward. His salary stands out as a big sticking point for Twins leadership as they desperately seek to shed payroll in search of flexibility to add, or merely to meet their budgeted number.

He's a talented pitcher with upside, and we've seen him flash it at times as a Twin. But having Paddack around feels like a luxury, especially with young starters like David Festa and Zebby Matthews already breaking through to the majors. Although $7.5 million isn't some huge sum in the grand scheme, there's little doubt the front office would love to redirect that money toward the bullpen, bench or first base. It's no surprise Paddack was recently listed by MLB Trade Rumors among top 35 trade candidates of the 2024-25 offseason.

• Video: Should the Minnesota Twins Trade Away Chris Paddack?

The trickier part of this discussion is building a case to trade for Paddack from another team's perspective. His track record makes it almost impossible to trust his in his health, or really even his performance when available. Then again, it sounds like he was cleared for a relatively normal offseason program, and he is a respected arm talent with a high ceiling when he's right. Paddack is still under 30, and his contract (1 year, $7.5M) could be attractive for an upside-seeking team relative to free agency options.

Bobby Nightengale Jr. wrote in the Star Tribune last week that "league sources expect some interest in Twins starter Chris Paddack."

Comparable Trades of the Past
One of the reasons it's tough to envision Paddack's trade market and theorize a return is that there just aren't many precedents that come to mind. Actually one of the best comps might be ... Chris Paddack, who was acquired by the Twins in 2022 under similar circumstances: His previous season had been cut short by an elbow injury, but Minnesota bet on him rebounding and tapping into that ever-tantalizing upside. 

In that case, I think it's fair to say his arm health was more openly in doubt. Already the survivor of one Tommy John surgery, he had suffered a UCL sprain in 2021 with the Padres, receiving a stem cell injection after the season in hopes of healing the injury without a second reconstruction. The Twins knew the risk when they signed up, and indeed, Paddack made it through only five starts before needing to go under the knife once again.

Despite the looming health uncertainty, Paddack did have other more appealing qualities at that time: he was three years younger, with multiple years of inexpensive team control remaining. The trade cost to acquire him is a little hard to directly assess because Paddack was shipped alongside buy-low reliever Emilio Pagan in exchange for Brent Rooker and one year of a legitimately high-caliber bullpen arm in Taylor Rogers. 

Another comparable player traded for in recent Twins history, I suppose, is Anthony DeSclafani. Very similar story here: pitcher with some level of proven upside, coming off elbow injury that he attempted to rehab, acquired by the Twins as part of a complicated and creative trade package. The same motivation that compelled them to target DeSclafani in that deal -- adding a veteran starter for the back of the rotation on a cheap-ish one-year deal -- would be the same one stirring interest in Paddack.

It seems fair to say that if Minnesota can find a way to move Paddack, the deal will take shape in a similar fashion to those examples, with multiple players and maybe even multiple teams involved.

Potential Trade Partners
If there's a general sense of confidence in his health, Paddack could draw interest from a wide range of teams, especially in the midst of pervasive reduction in spending across the league (which I expect). For all his risk, the right-hander could be attractive on a one-year commitment compared to the treacherous free agent market. Here are a few team names that stand out in my mind as likely suitors for Paddack. 

New York Mets
They have some holes to fill in the rotation with Sean Manaea and Luis Severino heading into free agency. Head exec David Stearns has been open about the need to add in the rotation. "We have to have multiple starters. We understand that," he told The Record. "We went into last offseason with the same need, and I think we'll be able to do it."

New York does have a pretty solid starting pitching corps in place, so they could potentially afford to take a gamble on Paddack, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle and bolster their championship hopes. Under owner Steve Cohen, the Mets are in sort of a sweet-spot for this kind of trade because they won't overly scrutinize a salary like Paddack's, but might also be looking to avoid huge financial commitments after leading MLB in payroll this year.

Texas Rangers
Like the Mets, Texas is a free-spending team with World Series aspirations. They also seem like a heck of a natural fit for Paddack, a Texas native known for arriving at the ballpark in his cowboy attire. The Rangers have a strong track record of taking fliers on starting pitchers whose stock is down and striking gold; Lance Lynn and Mike Minor are among the examples. They're also the team that signed Tyler Mahle to a two-year contract coming off Tommy John surgery with the Twins, although the returns haven't been so good there up to this point.

Like the Mets, Texas is facing significant veteran losses in the rotation, with Max Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney becoming free agents. They could be looking to load up on arms.

Tampa Bay Rays
I don't have any specific reasons for including the Rays, other than that they are an unpredictable team with whom the Twins have done business in the past. Unlike the Rangers and Mets, they are far from big spenders, but they could be interested in acquiring a contract like Paddack's if they believe he's healthy and they like his underlying metrics.

Tampa has a solid stable of young starters, but could be keen to add a veteran with frontline talent on top of it. I also think the Rays (or other teams) could be interested in Paddack as a multi-inning weapon out of the bullpen.

Baltimore Orioles
Corbin Burnes has finally reached free agency and is in search of a mega deal. Assuming they don't bring him back, he will leave a massive void in their rotation, and the O's will be on the hunt for quality arms to supplement their overflowing young offense. 

One name that stands out to me here as a possible return is Ryan O'Hearn, a strong lefty bat and first baseman making an equal $7.5 million in his final year under contract. Formerly a nondescript player for the Royals, O'Hearn blossomed in Baltimore over the past two seasons under now-Twins hitting coach Matt Borschulte, posting a 122 OPS+ in both, but his poor defense keeps his value in check. 

Conclusions
When it comes to trading Paddack, there is definitely a will, but is there a way? The plausibility will be dictated by several factors: his arm prognosis, the temperature of the free-agent market, and the spending inclinations of major-league teams. If the Twins are able to move Paddack and his salary, expect the deal to be significantly more complex than a standard one-for-one swap.