Jack Flaherty Is the Ideal Trade Deadline Acquisition For the Twins

Recent reports--including one from Dan Hayes, The Athletic Twins beat reporter--suggest that a short-term starting pitching acquisition tops the team's trade deadline to-do list. Hayes immediately lists Toronto Blue Jays left-handed starting pitcher Yusei Kikuchi as a potential "rental" option Minnesota could target. Admittedly, Kikuchi is an ideal target. He would cost roughly $3.5 million the rest of the season (a price tag even the Pohlad family could stomach), while likely being a more viable postseason starter than Bailey Ober. However, the monumental attendance increase this past weekend at Target Field could push the team to acquire an even more expensive yet appealing trade candidate than Kikuchi, and Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jack Flaherty would fit those criteria.

Signed to a one-year, $14 million contract by the Tigers after spending time with the St. Louis Cardinals and Baltimore Orioles last season, the 28-year-old righty has pitched exceptionally well with Detroit, posting a 3.13 ERA, 2.96 FIP, and a 127-to-17 strikeout to walk ratio over 100 2/3 innings pitched and 392 batters faced. A driving force in his mid-career rejuvenation has been improving his command, collaborating with Chris Fetter (one of the best pitching coaches in MLB), and having the privilege of most of his starts coming in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Flaherty has benefited from these favorable circumstances, turning his slider and knuckle curve into two of the best breaking pitches in baseball.

He has also improved his four-seam fastball, evidenced by a 64-point drop in opponent batting average and a similarly inspiring 68-point decrease in opponent wOBA. Much of that is that he's throwing it for strikes more often, though it also helps that hitters have to respect the breaking stuff more than they did before this year.

What makes the former first-round pick so enticing is that he meets the very specific criteria for the Twins' needs and what they can realistically pursue. He would instantly surpass the "Bailey Ober Threshold," becoming one of the team's three best starters for a hypothetical playoff scenario. He would cost roughly $4 million the rest of the season, while not possessing payroll ramifications beyond this season. Already facing the strong possibility of needing to shed payroll this upcoming season, Twins ownership will not allow the front office to acquire an arm with multiple years of control. Flaherty fits that mold to a tee.

Admittedly, it is fun to speculate over hypothetical playoff scenarios. However, most of Flaherty's value resides in what he can offer the team now. Sitting four games behind the slumping Cleveland Guardians and tied with the presently surging Kansas City Royals, the Twins have reached a mid-season crossroads. López, Ryan, Ober, and Simeon Woods Richardson have done an admirable job guiding the Twins, who boast the 10th-best rotation in baseball, according to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR). However, the uninspiring trio of Chris Paddack, Louie Varland, and David Festa have left much to be desired out of the team's fifth and final rotation slot. Flaherty would provide an instant boost to an already above-average rotation and be a driving force in creating what would be one of the most formidable and complete five-pitcher rotations in Twins history.

Despite this being an intriguing proposition, significant drawbacks could spoil one's appetite for acquiring the divisional foe. The two teams have a recent track record of dealing with one another (Sawyer Gipson-Long for Michael Fulmer in 2022, most notably), but current Tigers President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris did not make that trade, meaning the two teams' present relationship is uncertain.

Making an intradivisional trade is plausible, and the idea of paying an "in-division tax" is largely a fallacy. However, acquiring Flaherty would demand parting ways with significant prospect capital, meaning those who follow the Twins could run the risk of having to watch a prospect like Andrew Morris, Marco Raya, or Gabriel Gonzalez perform well in the same division as the Twins for seasons to come. While this proposition is scary on the surface, acquiring Flaherty is a risk Twins decision-makers should be willing to take.