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Handed a chance to add a player to their major-league roster on Wednesday, the Twins—as they have done every year since 2017—passed. They weren’t solely driven by painful memories of Tyler Kinley and Justin Haley: The Rule 5 draft has, in recent years, devolved from a relatively consistent method of swiping talent to a largely barren, sure-let’s-shore-up-the-back-of-our-bullpen abstention fest.
You can thank the 2006 CBA for this change. Before that year, players who signed at 18 or younger were eligible for the draft after four years; players signed at 19 or older needed just three years*. Emmanuel Rodriguez, for example, would have been eligible for last year’s Rule 5 process if the prior rules had still existed. The CBA pushed back the timeline a year for both age groups, allowing the Twins to wait until this offseason before ultimately deciding on Rodríguez.
It’s just one year—seemingly innocuous stuff, really—but an extra season secretly cuts down on the talent available for selection. As Andrew Simon wrote for MLB.com: “relatively few players have stuck with a drafting team and made an impact [since 2006], though Josh Hamilton, R.A. Dickey, Darren O'Day, Brad Keller, Ender Inciarte and Mark Canha are among others who have been selected during that time.”
Take Johan Santana. You know him. You love him! Santana was a 20-year-old fresh off a 4.66 ERA —a few ticks higher than the average hurler for the Midwest league that year. Needing to decide on his talents, the Astros gambled on leaving their $10,000 pitcher open for other teams to select, and the rest is well-documented history.
Had it been after 2006, Houston would have enjoyed a bonus year of evaluation. Perhaps Santana flashes enough in his extra season to convince Astros decision-makers of his worth. In fact, it seems almost certain that he would have.
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The last time a Rule 5 pick turned into an All-Star was in 2018, when the White Sox selected Jordan Romano… who only became an All-Star once he returned to his previous franchise. The only time before that was in 2017, when the Orioles selected Nestor Cortes… who only became an All-Star once he returned to his previous franchise. Other selections have turned into ancillary contributors or one- or two-year wonders. The last time a player turned into an All-Star for the team that drafted him was Odúbel Herrera, nearly a decade ago.
The bonus year is grinding the already lengthy evaluation process to the point where no one misses. If a player hasn’t become a desirable prospect by the point at which he becomes eligible under the current rules, he likely never will be.
In thinking about the Rule 5 draft and the changes made in 2006, I initially believed the new rules to be anti-player but pro-team. The talented must wait, laboring under the watch of a franchise safe in their evaluations. The team knows they have time; what’s the rush in ensuring they have someone of value?
But, really, this process is only a boon to conservative teams. The swashbucklers of the league—the franchises who dare to bet on talent—have a worse chance at swiping a George Bell or a Shane Victorino, because it’s more evident to the original franchise whether they have a Victorino worth keeping. The cement is dried and set. Your best hope these days is to get a Brad Keller or maybe a Victor Reyes.
It’s a bit of a travesty, just another minor alteration that makes the sport slightly worse for the fan. Given baseball’s place as the game most rooted in entropy—with Willi Castros popping up every season like clockwork—making it harder for teams to potentially hit the jackpot on talent creates a lesser product. Santana was an outlier, but can you imagine the mid-2000s Twins without him? What potential Santanas never wowed their fanbase because they never received the chance?
*The specific wording is “professional seasons,” with occasional loopholes for players assigned to a team whose season has already ended. See J.J. Cooper’s article on Baseball America for more details. https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/explaining-the-rule-5-draft/
What's your reaction? Is this change hurting the fan and player experience of baseball? Should it be revisited in future CBA negotiations? Join the conversation in the comments.
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- DannySD, Doctor Gast and Cory Engelhardt
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