The Wright Fit?

If the Twins brass is using the logic that Wright is the draft prospect that Strasburg, Price or (to a lesser extent) Cole were, I really fear for this franchise. 

Those players aren't available in this draft, so I'm not sure what your point is here. No one thinks Wright = Strasburg or Price.

Wright has been effective throughout his college career . . . his track record, stuff, and approach are good across the board. I don't agree that his secondary stuff is mediocre.

Longenhagen's take on Wright

Kyle Wright

Wright has an impeccable pitcher's frame and his stuff's consistency has improved as the spring has worn on. He sits 92-94 with his fastball but will bump 97 with life, he has a plus, low-80s curveball with two plane movement and a mid-80s slider that is effective when well-located.

The Red's version of Nick Nelson had this to say

Physically, Kyle Wright has everything you want from a starting pitcher. He’s 6′ 4″ and 220 lbs. His mechanics are clean. He’s shown the ability to absolutely dominate high level college baseball. There haven’t been any health concerns during his time in college. The stuff is unquestionable, with four potential plus offerings depending on where you look, but it seems everywhere gives him a chance for at least three above-average pitches and a fourth average one.

When you are drafting at the top of the draft, Kyle Wright is exactly the kind of player you want to look for. There’s superstar potential there. He’s going to be relatively close to the Major Leagues as a college pitcher coming out of the SEC. The concern, if there is any, is what happened to start the 2017 season and the inconsistency he showed at time time. With that said, the run he’s been on over the last five weeks shows he’s capable of rebounding and self-correcting (I’m sure with the help of his coaches, too). While I’m not entirely through all of my draft research, as things sit right now, Kyle Wright would be at the top of my draft board if I had to make one.

Wright has moved to #1 for me based on his strong finish and the strong(er) secondary pitches. He might not have the ultimate upside of Greene but he could be a borderline all-star (near elite level) and I will take it.

Couple of things I'm scared of:

1). They pick Wright because he has the quickest path the majors....on a team fresh off 3 of 4 seasons with nearly 100 losses.

2). They pick Wright, a RH college guy, because they're scared of picking a RH high school, Greene, a guy with more arm talent (plus the glove and bat).

Both are highly irrational, IMO.

Really worried they're going to miss out on a generational player in 5 years (Greene) to be safe with an OK player in any generation (Wright).

Also worried that they pick the guy closest the majors because they feel the pressure to succeed early.

All I know for sure is that I'm not making millions to make this decision...thus not making me open to criticism for making the "wrong" decision. It's about GD time someone in the Twins front office (milking tax dollars for nearly a decade now) make the right one.

The question is whether or not Greene is a generational player or if that is media hype?

Indications are that he isn't at the same level of previous generational players or generational players come along every couple of years.

Found it: http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/kyle-wright-gets-measure-redemption-beating-clemson/#vrFI202jJC1UIY0m.97

"While Saturday night marked redemption for last year’s regional, it also was a redemptive statement in the context of Wright’s season. The junior righthander struggled early this spring, in his draft year, and saw his stock slip as his command eluded him. He simply couldn’t put the ball where he wanted to. His stuff was the same; he was throwing just as hard, but he couldn’t hit the mitt. He knew something had to change.

On Monday, April 10, he found that something. At practice that day, coming off a series win at South Carolina, pitching coach Scott Brown and teammate Matt Ruppenthal picked up on an anomaly in Wright’s delivery.

“I was turning my hips too fast, which was leaving my arm behind,” Wright said, “I was never really on time, which kind of led to some struggles. And I just kind of slowed those down a little bit and allowed my arm to work and my body to work like it should.”

Wright made a slight mechanical tweak, and the adjustment paid immediate dividends. In his very next start, against Florida, Wright threw a 99-pitch three-hitter. He posted a career-high 13 strikeouts and, perhaps most importantly, walked none.

Wright’s stuff and his command were finally back in sync—and that’s meant bad news for teams down the stretch, as Wright carved through the back half of the SEC season."

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm in!

I think I'd say it more this way. If they were passing on Greene to pick a guy like Royce Lewis because they feel he's the Carlos Correra or Francisco Lindor of the draft I could buy it. But passing on Greene to take someone because he's a safe bet to be only Mike Pelfrey bad if they miss is kind of dooming a franchise to be the next Cleveland Browns.

This is just a completely false premise - there is zero chance the Twins' brass would prefer a "safe" 4th or 5th starter over a superstar . . . you are attributing a thought process to them that cannot possibly exist. 

Really, you are just creating a strawman opposite Greene as a way of making the latter seem like the obvious choice. None of the experts covering the draft see Greene as the obvious #1 pick, even if some think he has the most upside (though even that is far from unanimous). 

The Twins will only take someone they project as an impact player. That's the reality. Whether or not you agree with the pick means nothing in terms of what the team is hoping to accomplish.

Just a quick question: how are there multiple "generational" talents within the same generation? We hear that term in each sports' draft like every other year.

I think I'd say it more this way. If they were passing on Greene to pick a guy like Royce Lewis because they feel he's the Carlos Correra or Francisco Lindor of the draft I could buy it. But passing on Greene to take someone because he's a safe bet to be only Mike Pelfrey bad if they miss is kind of dooming a franchise to be the next Cleveland Browns.

The part of the equation that you haven't included in this is what the upside gap is and the likelihood of hitting each of their upsides.
 

Random #'s assigned

Greene Upside = top 5 starter (Kershaw) but <10% chance. And he has a 30% chance of being an average starter

Wright Upside = top 20 starter (Lester) and 25% chance. 60% chance of being an average starter

I pulled those numbers out of thin air but the downside argument isn't that at worst he is Pelfrey. The downside argument is that he has a much better chance at being average or better (let's say Ervin Santana). And the upside is still really good (Lester).

My point is pretty simple. Calling Wright "safe" because Strasburg and Price were safe as the original article infers is like saying Royce Lewis is safe simply because Derek Jeter ended up in the Hall of Fame. It's not sound logic. The only thing that Wright, Price, Cole and Strasburg have in common is that they're college pitchers. That doesn't make Wright a safe bet to be anything. And yes, he could very well end up an ace. He could also be the next Ryan Mills-- aka the safest college pitcher the Twins drafted in the last 20 years.

 

But my biggest problem is if you have your pick of anyone and you don't grab the person you think will be the biggest star of the draft, it's a pretty telling sign about the direction of the franchise. 

Ryan Mills was a long time ago.  The thought process that went into drafting a player likely to be there  with your fifth round pick should be long extinguished. You can't use the cheap label as Mills signed a draft spot appropriate contract ergo they liked what they saw as a player. The can't miss prospect in a draft of can miss players as Adam Johnson. Again, anything that went into the decision making process of Johnson is long gone.

There's a difference between drafting someone who you think can be the biggest star in the draft and someone who you think will be the biggest star.

Hunter Green CAN BE the biggest star in this draft. If he develops more movement on his fastball while retaining velocity. And if he develops two other plus pitches.

You could make a case that Gore, Baz, and Carlson are better pitching prospects now. And they would be better prospects still if they had 3 years experience in the SEC. Of course that would make them Kyle Wright. If they were flashing 4 plus pitches.

Overstating Wright's stuff is exactly where this goes off the trail. A 60 fastball plus three 50-ish secondary pitches is Kyle Gibson. And people drove me crazy for years when they said Gibson was a safe bet to be the next Roy Halladay without really understanding what Halladay was.

 

As for the best pitcher in this draft, its the one who figures out a legit secondary pitch, preferably a curve or change. What Greene's velocity gives him over the average pitcher is more rope in that it can be a 60 secondary pitch as opposed to a 70 one.

No one serious ever said Kyle Gibson was a "sure bet" to be Halladay, even before Gibson got hurt. He also never had 3 MLB-average off-speed pitches. If you had a legit point it wouldn't be necessary to cook up fictitious straw men.

That scouting report would put him a tier below Wright going into the draft, not even accounting the stress fracture.

 

And once you get hurt all bets are off.

That scouting report (2009 Kyle Gibson preDraft), puts him right there with Wright.  Comparatively for their respective drafts, Gibson was rated as having better command and control. Gibson rated as having better secondary pitches. While Wright gets the nod for velo and fastball stuff.  I know it might be Revisionist history and many of you are tainted by present day Gibson but coming out of the draft Kyle was considered a stud, then baseball happened.

BA on Wright

his fastball command improved to solid-average as he dialed it back a bit to 92-95 mph, and that opened the way for him to get to his plus secondary stuff. Wright's slider is a hard mid-80s pitch with late life and at times cutter shape that can be plus; his curveball, his preferred breaking ball, has plus shape and power at around 80 mph. Teams laid off the curveball early when he wasn't throwing his fastball for strikes, and he needs to land both breaking balls for strikes more consistently going forward. Some scouts prefer the slider over his curve, though Wright throws the curve more often. Wright's power changeup in the upper 80s flashes plus as well with late bottom, though he uses it fairly rarely. Wright's clean arm action, low-maintenance delivery and sturdy 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame help him maintain velocity deep into games, up to 94 mph even into the ninth inning

Kyle Wright's last start was 6/3 in the SEC tournament.  His next start (assuming the Commodores stick with their rotation) will be shown on either ESPN2 (8 pm CDT Friday) or ESPN (8 pm Saturday) versus Oregon State.

A healthy Gibson would have gone much higher in the 2009 draft, but also been much more likely to succeed in the Majors - it makes zero sense to negatively comp Wright comp to Gibson when the Gibson from these scouting reports never existed as a professional.