The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

The Dodgers most likely offered De Leon for Dozier, but the Twins, along with their fans, were looking for Bellinger and other top prospects to be included.  The Dodgers have moved on and are looking at other options.  Actually, Kinsler or Forsythe are better fits for the Dodgers and won't cost top prospects.  Twins fans would rather have Dozier than De Leon, and Dodgers' fans would rather have De Leon, so everyone will end up happy on this one.  The Twins can trade with the Giants for their top pitching prospect (Tyler Beede, who is ranked 98th on the Top 100 prospects) or they can turn to the free agent market for pitching.

I don't understand the comment that the Dodgers are looking up to other teams in the NL while wasting Kershaw's prime years.  They won their division the last 4 years and Kershaw had his chances in the playoffs.  I love Kershaw, but in truth, the Dodgers' big problem is that Kershaw hasn't delivered in the playoffs; and not because they didn't have Dozier.

The counterargument to keeping Dozier lies in the past 5+ years of the Twins missing out on "selling high" on a player in his prime for younger prospects that actually project to be ready when the team competes again.

Look no further than Perkins, a multi-year All-Star closer on a last place team. He had no value for the Twins other than as a trade asset, but they did nothing. Same goes for Suzuki, Hughes, Willingham, and Plouffe, who hit their peak values while with the Twins, but the team failed to capitalize on trading them before they fell off the cliff.

The Twins never fully embraced the rebuild mode during the past half-decade+ of horrible baseball. By trading Dozier, who should be great again next year while the team isn't ready to compete yet, the front office will finally show signs of having a competent, consistent plan they stick to (i.e. 2018/19 or bust!).

Not trading Perkins in 13 or especially 14 was by far the worst example of trade mismanagement.

They shouldn't have extended Hughes, but people vastly overrate the return they could have gotten for Suzuki and especially Willingham.

They shouldn't have extended Hughes, but people vastly overrate the return they could have gotten for Suzuki and especially Willingham.

Something's better than nothing. A flyer prospect would have been better than simply letting them play poorly through to the end of their contracts. Or even worse, extending Hughes after a career-defying season and then watching his arm go to hell.

Willingham was a silver slugger winner in 2012. 35 HR and 100+ RBI would have gotten interest from somebody. Most likely from a smart team that would have stuck him at DH rather than watch him fumble around in LF.

It's getting frustrating and "I Need to Know", but poor Dozier right about now is probably feeling like a "Refugee", this kind of stress can easily lead to an all too common holiday "Breakdown".

 

The Dodgers are probably only offering De Leon plus parts While Falvey understandably is saying "Don't Do Me Like that", "I Won't Back Down" from needing Bellinger or Alvarez in the deal as well. "Even the Losers" need to be tossed a bone once in awhile.

 

Trading Dozier is the team's best chance of "Running Down a Dream" and they can't squander it. I'm optimistic though, I think come this time next year we're going to be looking at the haul Falvey got and say "You Got Lucky". I don't like the alternative, if Dozier stays I think his value almost certainly starts "Freefalling".

If the trade goes down, then you gotta imagine that Falvey & Co. would tell Dozier that they wish him the best, but "Don't Come Around Here No More."

Why are the Twins' behind the Cubs and Astros? Part of the reason is that those teams traded their veterans for prospects. The Twins traded Span and Revere, and got nothing for Span (ugh, jeebus) and a big fat question mark for Revere.

 

Not trading Dozier is going to slow down the rebuild, AWFUL teams that have lost 90+ games 5 of the last 6 years need to trade older veterans for prospects. That's how rebuilds speed up. At this point, the White Sox look like they may have passed the twins in the rebuild....

Now I don't remember your take on those trades when they happened, but IMO you just confirmed the difficulty in trading MLBers for prospects. It's a crap shoot. That doesn't mean you don't do it. In this case I have a bit more confidence in the current FO as to their strategy.

Look no further than Perkins, a multi-year All-Star closer on a last place team. He had no value for the Twins other than as a trade asset, but they did nothing. Same goes for Suzuki, Hughes, Willingham, and Plouffe, who hit their peak values while with the Twins, but the team failed to capitalize on trading them before they fell off the cliff.

Perkins was a different deal.  He signed a very team-friendly contract with the promise from management they would NOT trade him. 

Perkins was a different deal.  He signed a very team-friendly contract with the promise from management they would NOT trade him. 

Wow! That's the first time I heard that. I'd second Mike's comment above that that was a really stupid move for both sides.

It reinforces the opinion a lot of people had that the old regime had a handful of "their guys" they liked and went out of their way to support/protect to the detriment of the rest of the organization.

Finally:  Tom Petty's "The Waiting" is one of the whiniest songs I've ever heard.  Hurts my ears.

American Girl!  One of the Best Ever!!!

Kudos to you and your keen sense of intuition and interpretation.  I agree with you 100% on both points.  A much more serviceable song choice might have been something like "Anticipation" by Carly Simon.

The writer's weak pop culture reference almost ruined the whole article for me.

The Twins should wisen up a bit.  De Leon has better minor league numbers than Johan Santana with a fastball and changeup that are not far off.

 

De Leon relies on his fastball too much which is a concern, but the Twins just need to get him to trust them to call the pitches.

 

Regardless of his 2016, Dozier is B level talent and a simple 1-to-1 trade for De Leon has the Twins coming out winners.  If the Twins are squabbling over the #2 player in the trade, they should just take whoever the Dodgers have on the table.  The #2 person doesn't matter in this transaction as the Twins are already coming out ahead.

I couldn't disagree more.

Dozier is not "B" level talent. He is a top-20 hitter with power, and a capable defender. That's not B-level, considering how many hitters there are in the major leagues.

He's worth a lot more than just De Leon. De Leon is still a prospect. The Twins should get at least one more MLB-ready starting pitcher and one or two more prospects for Dozier. If not, just keep him.

Darren Wolfson just tweeted this:

‏@DWolfsonKSTP
Dozier update: told LAD still very much in it. Here's the new wrinkle: STL very much in it, + Nats & Giants remain in dialogue. #MNTwins

That's a new wrinkle indeed! If STL is putting up a similar package to LAD, it could be very interesting...

St. Louis' top two prospects, Alex Reyes and Luke Weaver are both starting pitchers who reached the major leagues in 2016. Could they and a couple other prospects be traded for Dozier? 

It's just conjecture at this point.

Promise?  Pinky promise?  Unlike Mauer he did not have a no-trade clause. 

True, but Mauer's deal was hardly very "team friendly".  Perkins could've gotten more money from a lot of other teams, but wanted to stay in MN.  Whether or not you agree with the deal premise, it was an understanding between Perkins & Terry Ryan, and Ryan wasn't the type of guy to break that promise.  My guess is Ryan's way of thinking was, we're small market, and got a very team friendly bargain because I struck this deal.  If I break this deal, my word is worthless, and we'll never get another "hand-shake" deal again.