The Most Encouraging Early-Season Stories for the Twins Have, Sadly, Faded Fast

35 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

In addition to the other poster's remark.....if ownership had understood anything they wouldn't have knee-capped the FO right after the most successful Twins season in a decade.

The Correa move was done with the expectation of a maintained payroll....not a slashed one.  Everything since that moment has felt like a spiral down the drain.  Only ownership owns that catastrophic choice.

Or Falvey took a swing and missed.  All this was post Covid, he had to know the team was accumulating debt and to think in that situation payroll was going to grow was naive.  He didn't win enough to justify further debt.  He could have passed on Correa the second time and built the roster with the known resources that he would have.  He wanted to played with the big boys but didn't have the pocketbook behind him to back it up.

6 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Sabato could replace Bell if they are going to insist on a DH spot on the roster.  Clemens moves around and starts 3 or 4 times which should be his role.  There are AB's for Fedko, have Larnach DH a couple of days a week and Sabato the other days.  Then Fedko plays in LF 2 days and can play RF two days for Martin.  Plenty of AB's to go around if the manager wants it to happen.

Sabato would not be a bad idea at First Base.

5 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

All due respect....what?  They had a great season with a  great postseason....how is the GM responsible for their owners crappy asset portfolio when planning a payroll?

They won 87 games and won a wild card series where the games were at home.  Just because it was the first playoff win in 20 years doesn't make it a great year.  And the debt accumulated was for the team, the President of Operations should know the financial situation and make decisions accordingly.   Did he really think payroll would go to $160, 180 or even 200m.  When they have never waded in those waters before.  Was there going to be enough dollars to fill in the roster around Correa.  Falvey was a failure as the President of Baseball Operations not GM as you stated.

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

We don't really know what debt that was or when it was accounted for.  Payroll didn't have to increase for his plan to carry forward, but he had zero rational reason to expect it to decrease like it did.  

Falvey is not responsible for setting the budget.  He wasn't good at either of his jobs with the Twins....we don't need to invent frivolous reasons to criticize him for things squarely on the shoulders of ownership.

It is not a frivolous reason to criticize him.  Everyone in his position in baseball or any other needs to anticipate based on what is happening inside their organization and within the industry.  It was a risk he advocated for and they had minimal success and the team was accumulating debt.  He chose to make a big swing and ask for record payrolls from ownership, you better produce more than he did.  He could have taken a more conservative approach like other teams that we should be patterning ourselves after but he didn't.  I will grant that ownership meaning Joe P. could have taken a less drastic approach to cutting payroll but they didn't and Falvey needed to understand the environment he was operating in when he chose to swim in the deep end.

1 hour ago, RpR said:

None of the Twins current rookies have come close to showing that; actually the opposite, look good first year and then fade away.

A rebuilds takes:  time + someone who knows how to build a roster + some luck = 1987

2 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

Honestly, this is just nonsense IMO.  You keep implying the budget was cut for baseball reasons but it was 100% outside of on-field play or success.  Even the current Pohlad of the month owns this mistake.  

I want a PBO/GM who is willing to take risks and push the boundaries.  And I will blame them 0% of them time when ownership kneecaps them for no rational reasons.  Even a payroll freeze would've been semi-rational.  A drastic cut?  That's on the PBO?  WTF?

I didn't say it was for baseball reasons, but the PBO can't be blind to how the team is doing financially.  He needed to understand that the bottom line was not improving and was probably suffering from an ownership standpoint.  We can debate all day about if that is true or not but will never know because the books won't be shared.  Based on that he needs to be prepared to make the necessary adjustments, you don't wait until dad tells you can't spend money.  A business doesn't give 50% raises to employees if there is not sufficient revenue support it.  And likewise if revenues drop or expenses rise without a corresponding revenue increase, you have to be prepared to adjust your budget.  If Falvey doesn't understand this part of the business then he had no business being in a leadership position.

He has always tried to have that one big contract, first it was Donaldson, then Correa.  Another option was to build the team around known resources based on history.

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

And then more cuts, then more....so, ya, this is 100% on ownership changing direction. No GM increases payroll that much w/o ownership approval.....

Never said it was done without ownership approval.  But he was the one advocating and put the plan together for the larger payroll.  There were other options or be prepared because history would say the payroll has never been that high for this team, what made him think it was sustainable.

Two things on this:

1) This is a well written piece, but I feel like the headline says it all. These were just stories. A bunch of these guys might end up having decent years but the Twins fielded zero breakout candidates on their ML roster, and outside of Minnesota none of this regression is a surprise. So yeah, it sucks, but also it's not unexpected. 

2) The lack of more convincing positives to focus on seems to be a conscious choice made by this front office. Fair to say a majority of blame rests on cheap ownership, but this front office has seemingly gone out of its way to limit this team's upside. There were players they could financially afford on the trade market and they didn't trade for them. Fine, they like their prospects and they didn't want to give them up. But then they didn't call up the prospects, and that's entirely on them. Even as I type this we're watching crap shortstop play while a prospect just sits around waiting for a shot. 

To me this dates back to at least the 2024 trade deadline when they didn't acquire pitching because Luke Keashall *had* to be treated as off-limits. And I like Keashall fine, but if you refuse to ever push your chips in what's the point? It really feels like what's left of this front office ran out of bold ideas 3 years ago and is just waiting to be fired.

20 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

There was no rebuild. Trading away rentals and a couple relievers while keeping the best players with the largest contracts is not a rebuild in progress.

Pohlad wasn't in charge until mid December. Falvey had plenty of time to "rebuild" if that was going to happen.

They traded away the largest contract in team history.

It’s a long season, and developing young/inexperienced players at the major league level is always painful…with the ups and especially the downs applified. But the situation is what it is, and we should see more, not less, of that this year and next. It’s one thing to see guys like Keaschall regress…you need to find out what you have in him…it’s completely different when it’s happening with the veterans (of which there are many) who have proven that they’re incapable of being needle movers. Moving on usually means the ride will be even bumpier. But you HAVE to do it. PLEASE.

8 hours ago, RpR said:

None of the Twins current rookies have come close to showing that; actually the opposite, look good first year and then fade away.

I think the point is that the Twins are not bringing in the younger talent  to see what the have. Instead, they are hanging on to the likes of Bell,  Arcia and the Kreidler's of the world. 

It took Torri Hunter a few years to figure it out. Just give Lee, Martin,  Keaschall, and the likes some time! 

7 minutes ago, TheLeviathan said:

I just don't know how you're arguing this seriously.  He had ownership approval for the Correa deal.  His budgets are dictated by ownership.

Ownership, abruptly for what appears to be non-baseball reasons, pulled this rug out from under baseball operations and the fault is with the employee who had no reason to expect a reversal like that?

Even the Pohalds don't agree with this Pro-Pohlad spin job.

Who proposed the budget for approval, hint it was Falvey.  Did he think he would have a $160m payroll for the next six years, if so that was the risk he was taking.  Ownership approves the budget that Falvey asks for and says he needs to meet the objectives set by ownership.

I am not sure how you know the payroll was cut for non baseball reasons.  They lost $50m in tv revenue or somewhere in that neighborhood, that is baseball related. Even if it is not under his control, he needs to be aware of these situations so he can plan appropriately.  He can't operate in a bubble as PBO, no business runs that way, I am not sure if you understand that.

Yes he may not have had a reason to expect such a deep cut in payroll so quickly, again what was their highest payroll before that year.  You have to understand historical trends and take into consideration how those will impact future events as well.  He chose to take the risk that either payroll would be stable or rise because his baseball development staff has been an absolute failure.  

If I had been in his position I would have allocated those dollars more conservatively on multiple players because one player isn't going to win by themselves in baseball, just ask the Angels and Trout.

30 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

For nothing, to save money. That's not rebuilding it's just being cheap. 

100%, but on some level isn't that the same thing? Half the cheap "rebuilding" teams in baseball aren't going anywhere and with some truth serum would admit they know it. Sucks that we're one of them, but the rebuilding syntax isn't new.

Sorry if this comes across as overly negative. Again, I liked your piece and I love this team and want to see it win. I'm just past the point of believing in any part of this org not named Byron Buxton. Im open to liking more players and believing in the front office that assembles the group, but this FO isn't doing it. 

4 hours ago, DJL44 said:

To really give Sabato a shot, they would need to bench Royce Lewis. Likewise, Fedko would steal playing time from Austin Martin. That seems short sighted.

Royce Lewis hasn't proven anything but inconsistancy or failure. Martin is struggling since given a full-time role. It's not short-sighted to see what you have in other options. Do you really think this team is going anywhere if you stay with Lewis and Martin? They have helped the team to a sub .500 record. Yeah, don't want to derail that success. LOL!

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

I just paid almost $5 for gas, thanks, Pohlads!!!!

Uh, what?

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Tom Pohlad favored a bolder approach last fall. He's on record lamenting the fact he wasn't in charge earlier where he could have presumably fired Falvey sooner and hired a GM with a different philosophy. 

 This is nonsensical.  Tommy first showed up at a press conference in September.  He officially took over in mid December.  Yet he waited til February to fire Falvey.  Why didn't he fire Falvey on day 1?  day 5?  day 30?  

The original poster was saying this plan - to contend with a talent-starved roster while not investing any resources - was dumb, and Tommy Pohlad was dumb to think it would work.  You seem to think it was a good plan and it's Falvey's fault it didn't work.  Ok. 

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Here's what I did for Feb 4th.  

The Twins start off with an absolute blockbuster of a trade with the Washington Nationals moving Emmanuel Rodriguez, Brooks Lee, Taj Bradley and Dasan Hill to the Nationals to get a return of (SS) CJ Abrams and (LF) James Wood.

lolololol yes why didn't the Twins simply do this, it's so simple.  

Finally, the Twins package Hendry Mendez to sweeten the deal for a team to take on Josh Bell's contract in return for a PTBNL.

Ah yes, the classic 1) sign a guy  2) trade him 2 months later before playing a single game 3) give away another prospect in the deal too 4) get nothing in return 5) ?? 6) compete for the playoffs!