The Brian Dozier Trade That Almost Was

 

They can? Who is making that offer? Why is he suddenly more valuable coming off a lesser season and with only one year of control instead of two? 

 

What pieces? They have the real Ervin (not the April-May .98 ERA Ervin) and Berrios. After that it's nothing but question marks, inconsistency, and AAAA pitching. That isn't a staff anywhere near actual playoff contention. 

 

I understand both sides on this issue.  I get your point, not sure i 100% agree, but i respect your opinion AND I don't need or want to mock your ideas in the process as seemed to be happening on page 3....and now after reading this thread it's perfectly clear to me why it happens so often in general on this site. 

 

I am firmly in the camp that this team needs to go after front line starters and soon.  Ervin is not going to be around that much longer and that leaves us with basically Berrios and a whole lot of question marks afterwords.  I think the only real solution is to trade one or multiple young prospects for a front end rotation guy.  Might end up having to be one or multiple guys from Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Kepler, Rosario and other lesser prospects such as Gordon.  It would be easier to add a mid rotation guy like Lance Lynn via free agency once you have that ace starter in place to build around. 

 

We'll see.  I'm not convinced it happens any time soon.  

Edited October 25, 2017 by laloesch

 

I'd like to hire you for a job. I'll pay you $1,000 a year.

 

I bet you haven't gotten another job offer today. This is the best offer you've received, you should take it.

 

 

Good thing you left out that your check might bounce.

Actually, plenty of people say exactly that. They just couch it in terms like "can't afford to sign the best free agents," "don't trade away prospects," and "our deep minor league system will supply what we need." "That's what Falvine where hired for, to turn magic beans onto ace starters, like Cleveland!"

 

If those are your positions, you're saying "just find the next Arrieta."

 

For proof, I offer the "hunt for an ace" thread.

I don't think the argument is "don't trade prospects." I think that in general it's "the Twins don't have the quality/quantity of prospects needed to land a guy that will move the needle enough to justify gutting the farm." That seems like a pretty big difference to me. I dunno, I'm not sure why anyone would need to shroud their opinions in euphemism. Edited October 25, 2017 by prouster

 

I'd like to hire you for a job. I'll pay you $1,000 a year.

 

I bet you haven't gotten another job offer today. This is the best offer you've received, you should take it.

Not even remotely the same thing Brock....

 

So you're advocating the Twins trade away a guy they paid $1.2m per win in 2017 (!!!!!!) so they could take an oft-injured pitcher in a lopsided deal.

 

Wow.

They had a chance to trade a player from a position of depth and at peak value and they decided to pass up the best offer they received. A good number of people seem to think Dozier is suddenly more valuable or that he'll be more in demand even though his 2017 < 2016 and he has only a year left before FA. Extremely unlikely. 

 

What are they doing with Dozier? Extending him and tying up more money? FA starters are expensive. Good bullpen pieces are expensive. All the young players that got them to that one game wildcard are hitting arbitration in a couple years. This team doesn't operate on a high payroll. They had a chance to snag a young, cost controlled, front end upside pitching prospect and they didn't take it. I disagree with the logic.

 

Where would you put De Leon then?  A 25 year old with 25 IP of major league experience with arm problems.  Better than a 4-5 back end starter?

 

Dozier made $6M this year and$9M next year...where is the $12-15M coming from?  If we wanted to shed Dozier's salary to sign pitching that's one thing but the guy has been nearly a 5 WAR played for 4 years running for his production.........is extremely cheap.  

Yes, pedigree says better. His floor would be a back end starter. 

 

12-15M is what they're paying for that back end starter on the FA market. Quite a bit less expensive to shell out the league minimum to a young player. 

 

I advocated for keeping Dozier last off season and trading one of Kepler, Sano, or Buxton for a true ace. I also advocated for trading Dozier at the deadline in order to galvanize the team. The shed Kintzler instead. I see both sides on this one. But I don't really see how anyone can argue we should habe done the deal on DeLeon alone. That was so far below our asking price. He wasn't even their top pitching prospect or the arm we wanted.

Isn't it possible the Twins asking price was high? 

 

Yes, they declined the Dodgers' offer and it's damned near impossible to say they made the wrong decision thus far.

If JDL busts and the Twins start spending money on front ending pitching then yeah it'll look like a good move. Neither of those things have happened. Like I said, if you're calling it a win right now it's because you want to, not because it actually is. 

 

I am firmly in the camp that this team needs to go after front line starters and soon.  Ervin is not going to be around that much longer and that leaves us with basically Berrios and a whole lot of question marks afterwords.  I think the only real solution is to trade one or multiple young prospects for a front end rotation guy.  Might end up having to be one or multiple guys from Sano, Buxton, Dozier, Kepler, Rosario and other lesser prospects such as Gordon.  

That's a big reason why I was on board with the Dozier trade. I don't think people realize how difficult it's going to be to put together a staff that is capable of actual playoff success. 

Isn't it possible the Twins asking price was high?

 

Of course it is. But then how can you also be arguing that Dozier should have been used to get an ace or something that substantially improves a rotation that made the playoffs? Just for now, it certainly appears the twins made the right decision by holding dozier. That's not really debateable. In fact, regardless of the outcome, retaining him was at least, not a mistake.

I enjoyed watching competitive baseball this year. Dozier was a big part of the success. All things considered, the right move was made.

 

Dervish and Oteni, baby. They weren't coming to a 100 loss team, but now? (Misspelling intentional. I may or may not be talking about who you think I am)

 

Of course it is. But then how can you also be arguing that Dozier should have been used to get an ace or something that substantially improves a rotation that made the playoffs? Just for now, it certainly appears the twins made the right decision by holding dozier. That's not really debateable. In fact, regardless of the outcome, retaining him was at least, not a mistake.

That rotation that "made the playoffs," got to a one game wild card and was rocked. You don't think JDL is an improvement over Gibson, Gee, Mejia, Colon, or any of the other 20 something starters they trotted out? 

 

It is debatable, and it'll be a mistake if they're overpaying in FA for more back end Hughes, Nolasco, Santiago type pitchers in order to cobble together a rotation that gives them a shot at the postseason but no real chance of advancing. 

 

DeLeon's floor is not "Back end starter."  His floor is "bust," like virtually every minor leaguer.  

So don't trade for prospects? Every MLB player is one injury away from ending/derailing a career so should they be taken off the list of options as well? There is assumed risk on both sides of the trade, but it seems only one is being acknowledged. 

 

Again, how else are they finding pitching they're willing to pay for? 

 

I’m calling it a win because the Twins made the postseason, Dozier posted 5 fWAR, and De Leon barely pitched 40 innnings in the minors.

That, by pretty much every definition of the word, is a win.

 

But, as I've said for months, the book is not closed on De Leon... but right now, it looks pretty bad. De Leon was drafted in June of 2013 as a 21 year old. He has pitched 406 innings in those five seasons.

 

Jose Berrios, drafted one season prior to De Leon and as an 18 year old (so his innings were monitored for a few years), has pitched 795 innings. One year extra, nearly double the innings pitched.

If we're having this discussion one year ago at this time it would be Berrios in question. 

 

Yeah, a one game playoff was nice, especially after last year, but unless they do something drastic to improve the pitching, the best they can do with the current group might be a one game playoff or early postseason exit. That would be a shame given how promising some of the young position players look.