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    Standing Pat as a Strategy


    Nick Nelson

    'As we speak cruel time is fleeing. Seize the day, believing as little as possible in the morrow.' – Horace

    By all appearances, this is going to be a low-key winter for the Minnesota Twins. Coming off a season full of setbacks, the front office is reluctant to make firm commitments or chart a new course, with so much uncertainty permeating its existing core.

    And you know what? I get it. It's a logical approach in the scope of long-term strategy. But that doesn't make coming to terms with this reality any less of a bummer.

    Image courtesy of Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

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    To their credit, the Twins have been proactive in addressing their needs this offseason. Already they have filled their two clearest positional vacancies. Granted, they've done so by gathering up castoffs non-tendered by other organizations, but C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop are hardly scraps. They're legitimate starters and intriguing flyers for a rebuilding team.

    It is that last part that stings. Every indication I've seen signals a conservative approach this offseason, as the front office continues to bide time and see how things shake out with its inherited volatile assets.

    "The Twins have indicated that next season will be about allowing their young core to continue to develop," La Velle E. Neal III wrote in forecasting a quiet week at the Winter Meetings.

    Derek Falvey himself echoed that sentiment during a Friday interview with 1500 ESPN.

    "I do believe that you build championship teams around an internal core," Falvey said. "In our particular situation I think we’re really attentive to how we impact that core with complementary pieces."

    "You have to be thoughtful, the more years out you go, how it impacts your club."

    This isn't a new narrative from Falvey's baseball ops group, and the strategy thus far has aligned.

    Schoop on a one-year deal allows the Twins to wait and see what happens next year with Nick Gordon, added to the 40-man roster last month. Gordon had an awful season in 2018 but he's 22, a former top-10 draft pick, and a fixture on national Top 100 prospect lists. Any kind of long-term answer at second base would have amounted to waving the white flag on this highly touted and talented youth.

    As far as stopgaps go, Schoop's a damn good one. He's 27 and one year removed from an All-Star campaign that earned him MVP votes.

    The Cron situation is similar. The Twins don't quite have a Gordon-level prospect coming up at first base but Brent Rooker looks like a player and could be ready by midseason. Minnesota also is accounting for the very real possibility that Miguel Sano will be relegated to first base in the near future. Cron gives them flexibility and offers a fairly high floor; he's almost certain to be a significant improvement over Joe Mauer v.2018. Plus, the Twins can control Cron in 2020, which will look great if he backs up his breakout campaign.

    So, like I said, I get the rationale for these moves. They're very defensible. But they're not bold or particularly ambitious. They don't point to an outright aspiration for serious contention in the division next year. At best, the Twins are hoping they catch fire with these low-wattage additions while things coalesce elsewhere.

    Even with solid returns on Cron and Schoop, and moderate improvements among the incumbent crowd, this position-player unit still doesn't look all that well designed. The offense is desperately lacking for on-base percentage. An infield alignment of Sano, Jorge Polanco, Schoop and Cron will likely be very poor defensively. Mitch Garver's status is basically a mystery at this point.

    The team is caught in flux, and that's not really anyone's fault so much as just the way things have played out. Most other positions on this roster are similar to first and second base – unestablished at present, but with too promising or undecided an outlook for drastic changes in direction.

    An offseason spent more or less standing pat makes sense for the Twins. But for fans – even those who fully understand and accept the thought process – it stinks nonetheless.

    Cron and Schoop are logical in the rebuilding framework because they're young and capable enough that either could turn into parts of the go-forward vision – or at least deadline trade chips to further supplement the pipeline. But they are probably not the kind of decisive difference-makers who help Minnesota take the next step, in the event that Buxton and Sano rebound.

    We all know they are at the heart of the matter – Buxton and Sano – and that neither of those outcomes can be fully counted upon, but it's almost as if the Twins are planning around it not happening, turning their gaze already to the next hot prospect wave led by Royce Lewis and Alex Kirilloff.

    Which brings me back to that Horace quote from the outset about the unrelenting passage of time. "As we speak cruel time is fleeing. Seize the day, believing as little as possible in the morrow." We can all hope Lewis, Kirilloff and the next group are up to the task of pulling this franchise from the dredges, but no one can be blamed for pessimism as we watch an endless rebuild carry on in perpetuity, with Buxton and Sano entering their theoretical primes.

    Falvey and Thad Levine have made some nice moves with the coaching staff and behind the scenes (where some would argue the real war is being waged), but those moves don't put fans in the seats, nor do savvy buy-low investments like Schoop and Cron. The Twins drew their lowest attendance this year since 2004 at the Metrodome, and while that's partially attributable to weather, it also speaks to growing fan apathy, which I fear will only worsen in 2019 if Minnesota stays on course to field a low-payroll, low-profile club.

    Fans have endured nearly a decade of mediocre or worse play at Target Field. Even if the current rhetoric and ensuing actions are perfectly reasonable and valid, the whole "building a sustainable long-term winner, eventually" model doesn't do much to energize or excite a base that could really use some energy and excitement.

    Right now, the real focus is on 2020. At various points in the past, it's been on 2018, 2017, 2016, etc. No one wants or expects a rebuild to take eight-plus years, but here we are.

    If you've been conditioned into believing as little as possible in the morrow, that's more than fair. Especially because of the unique window of winnability in the AL Central, which won't last forever.

    At the same time, if you put yourself in the shoes of the team's decision makers, with all they must account for, hopefully you can see why – from their view – it's not quite time to seize the day.

    But as we speak, cruel time is fleeing...

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    Riley Quick

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    Yeah, the goal is to win, but if you think you can get a “well above average” return from dealing him, why not?? Besides, we should be building our rotation around Berrios, Graterol, and Romero, not an inconsistent pitcher coming off a career year and is entering his 30’s. At the same time, I do understand locking him up now for the right price may be a smart move, but if it’s for typical FA money, I don’t want any part of that.

    Honest question, how do you build a rotation around a guy that hasn't pitched above high A, and a another with 55 2/3 innings in the majors?

    I am a huge Graterol Fan, but lets be honest he isn't going to be good enough to build around until 2021 (fingers crossed he is ever good enough to build around), and Romero probably 2020.

    Honest question, how do you build a rotation around a guy that hasn't pitched above high A, and a another with 55 2/3 innings in the majors?

    I am a huge Graterol Fan, but lets be honest he isn't going to be good enough to build around until 2021 (fingers crossed he is ever good enough to build around), and Romero probably 2020.

    Not saying they’re gonna be a studs right away, but don’t be surprised when Romero’s first full season is much like Berrios’ in 2017 (maybe better) and Graterol’s making starts in September. And because these three all have the potential to have long successful careers, locking them up to early extensions may not be such a bad idea.

     

    Thanks Mike. I've been a regular TD reader for years. I was a regular poster on twinsdotcom but for some reason I among others can no longer post on that site.

     

    Will Smith as a return for taking Kemp would interest me a lot.

    I wrote Twins dot com, and they basically said MAYBE next year would LOOK INTO allowing readers to post again.  Sigh… I miss the crowd we had there posting regularly.

    Edited by Einheri

    Dear Santa Falvine: 

     

    Do you read the New York Post? 

    George A. King III reports that David Robertson is looking for a three-year contract.

    According to King, so far most interested teams have only been willing to offer a two-year pact. The 33-year-old hurler compiled a 3.23 ERA and 91/26 K/BB ratio across 69 2/3 innings with the Yankees during the 2018 campaign. The Red Sox and Phillies are known to have interest in his services.
    Source: New York Post

     

    Santa, I have been very, very good. Please be the team willing to go three years and give me a shiny reliever wrapped up with a spiffy bow. I promise I will be very good next year too and not send you any more of those Nigerian prince emails queued up in my Out box.

     

    -IT

     

    I would be frustrated with anything but standing pat.  Let's give Buxton & Sano another year.  If they both mature, as expected we are headed to the playoffs. If they don't, we can still be a .500 team.  This team is far from mediocre.  Lets be patient, sit tight and hang on. 2019 will be a thrill ride.  :D

     

    I would be frustrated with anything but standing pat.  Let's give Buxton & Sano another year.  If they both mature, as expected we are headed to the playoffs. If they don't, we can still be a .500 team.  This team is far from mediocre.  Lets be patient, sit tight and hang on. 2019 will be a thrill ride.   :D

    A .500 team is the definition of mediocre, and Buxton and Sano "maturing" isn't suddenly going to turn us into legit playoff contenders with our current roster. How many position players do we have that are above average for their positions? Eddie Rosario is the only one who comes to mind at the moment. How many pitchers do we have that are above average? 4? You're telling me you're looking at this roster and you'd be frustrated if they added some more actual talent? Last season Jake Cave was our 7th highest WAR player (including pitchers) and Grossman was our 8th. 4th and 5th respectively for position players, with 1.5 WAR each. If we were far from mediocre, Cave and Grossman wouldn't be in our top 5 best position players.

    Edited by S.

    Tanking usually results in good draft picks, where as I think we're probably going to be stuck in no man's land where we're not good enough to compete and not bad enough to get a good position in the draft.

    If people think there are too many good teams ahead of the Twins, I hate to break it to them... There are more teams ahead of them in prime position to lose 100 games.

     

    A .500 team is the definition of mediocre, and Buxton and Sano "maturing" isn't suddenly going to turn us into legit playoff contenders with our current roster. How many position players do we have that are above average for their positions? Eddie Rosario is the only one who comes to mind at the moment. How many pitchers do we have that are above average? 4? You're telling me you're looking at this roster and you'd be frustrated if they added some more actual talent? Last season Jake Cave was our 7th highest WAR player (including pitchers) and Grossman was our 8th. 4th and 5th respectively for position players, with 1.5 WAR each. If we were far from mediocre, Cave and Grossman wouldn't be in our top 5 best position players.

    fwar likes a lot of Twins players than bwar.  One player that fwar does not like is Grossman.

     

    If people think there are too many good teams ahead of the Twins, I hate to break it to them... There are more teams ahead of them in prime position to lose 100 games.

    Orioles, Rangers, and Royals are the race for the bottom.  Lat year 8 teams had better records. The climb over the Indians is just as steep as the climb over any other team to get to the wild card.

    Orioles, Rangers, and Royals are the race for the bottom. Lat year 8 teams had better records. The climb over the Indians is just as steep as the climb over any other team to get to the wild card.

    Teams not trying to win:

     

    KC

    CHI

    DET

    BAL

    TOR

    SEA

    TEX

    MIA

    CIN

    PIT

    SF

    SD

    ARI

     

    And others will join the group later this year. Maybe even the Twins!

     

    Tanking usually results in good draft picks, where as I think we're probably going to be stuck in no man's land where we're not good enough to compete and not bad enough to get a good position in the draft.

    Attendance has dropped so much every year. A straight out tanking season will be very hard to get people to come back until like mid May if not June in 2020 or 2021 when they actually start winning again.

     

    You can have the high draft picks but you still need to get lucky 9 times out of 10 to get a star.

     

    As well as the fact that tanking is the new "in thing" in MLB so it would be a race to the bottom.

     

    Not worth it.

     

    Attendance has dropped so much every year. A straight out tanking season will be very hard to get people to come back until like mid May if not June in 2020 or 2021 when they actually start winning again.

     

    You can have the high draft picks but you still need to get lucky 9 times out of 10 to get a star.

     

    As well as the fact that tanking is the new "in thing" in MLB so it would be a race to the bottom.

     

    Not worth it.

    Yeah, I'm certainly not an advocate for it, at least not with the current state of the central. Was a statement on where I think we currently stand, but I personally want us to sign some good players and if Buxton and Sano and all our prospects pan out, then that'd be even better. We can trade some to fill in other positions of need if we have the luck of having a surplus of good players for the same position. No such thing as too many good players.

    This would also be the thread to point out that the long time Blue Jays GM Pat Gillick was nicknamed "Stand Pat," for not making offseason moves despite having moderately successful teams. When he did start making big offseason moves, the team won two World Series.

     

    Buxton, Sano, Rosario, Kepler, Castro would all be top players in any roster & we have 4 solid starters that could have clutch seasons.  I'll take my chances with this lineup, thank you.   :)

    Are you basing this on their 2018 stats or just some hypothetical situation where they all play to their absolute ceiling? Because 2018 Buxton and Sano couldn't even make the Twins roster for most of the year, so they certainly wouldn't have been top players on any other roster. Rosario is absolutely a high quality outfielder, no arguments there. Kepler was also solid. Castro is not even remotely a "top player" 

     

    In 2018, Castro produced -0.2 fWAR. He is the 69th ranked catcher by fWAR. Both Astudillo and Garver produced a higher fWAR than him. If you don't like WAR, then I think his .143 BA, .257 OBP, and .495 OPS speak for themselves.

     

    When you say 4 solid starters, who is your 4th? Pineda? You're ready to call him solid even though he hasn't pitched a single inning for the Twins, and hasn't pitched a single inning in general in over a year?

     

    I understand being optimistic, but there is no metric by which Buxton, Sano, and Castro would be top players on any roster at this point in their careers. Could Buxton and Sano become top players on any roster? Yes, it is certainly possible and I hope they do so. But as of right now, Sano is coming off a rough season (to put it nicely), and Buxton is coming off of a complete failure of a season, and your statement that they would be top players on any roster is 100% false.

    It looks like Steamer is predicting 2.2 WAR for Buxton and 2.5 WAR for Sano, so that jives with your expectation. And I think most people would probably be pretty happy to get that sort of production from them after this last season, but that still would not qualify them as "top players in any roster" as the other poster put it.

     

    At the end of the day though, I don't think projections should stop us from acquiring other good players, which is my main issue here. Lots of prospects and players project to be stars. A lot less achieve that success. Lots of people love to talk about not wanting to block prospects or not wanting to sign good players to multi year contracts because you might have some prospect who pans out in a few years. But for every prospect that becomes a great MLB player, many more fizzle out and never amount to anything, or become replacement level players, or decent players but don't live up to their projections. My frustration isn't so much with Sano and Buxton specifically (though they definitely frustrated me plenty last year), but more the idea that standing pat is a good idea with this roster. Go get some more good players. If in a year or two years all of our current roster is playing well AND we got a bunch of prospects knocking on the door, then that's awesome. If you have multiple players for the same position who are genuinely good, there will always be teams interested. Players can be traded. Players get injured. Having lots of good players isn't a problem and I genuinely don't understand why lots of people on this board seem so averse to adding additional talent to a roster that features more than its fair share of mediocrity.

     

    Also, just to add - I assume it's a given but wanted to specify that these points aren't targeted at you personally, as I'm not going to claim I can remember who specifically has said what in all these offseason threads.

    It looks like Steamer is predicting 2.2 WAR for Buxton and 2.5 WAR for Sano, so that jives with your expectation. And I think most people would probably be pretty happy to get that sort of production from them after this last season, but that still would not qualify them as "top players in any roster" as the other poster put it.

     

    At the end of the day though, I don't think projections should stop us from acquiring other good players, which is my main issue here. Lots of prospects and players project to be stars. A lot less achieve that success. Lots of people love to talk about not wanting to block prospects or not wanting to sign good players to multi year contracts because you might have some prospect who pans out in a few years. But for every prospect that becomes a great MLB player, many more fizzle out and never amount to anything, or become replacement level players, or decent players but don't live up to their projections. My frustration isn't so much with Sano and Buxton specifically (though they definitely frustrated me plenty last year), but more the idea that standing pat is a good idea with this roster. Go get some more good players. If in a year or two years all of our current roster is playing well AND we got a bunch of prospects knocking on the door, then that's awesome. If you have multiple players for the same position who are genuinely good, there will always be teams interested. Players can be traded. Players get injured. Having lots of good players isn't a problem and I genuinely don't understand why lots of people on this board seem so averse to adding additional talent to a roster that features more than its fair share of mediocrity.

     

    Also, just to add - I assume it's a given but wanted to specify that these points aren't targeted at you personally, as I'm not going to claim I can remember who specifically has said what in all these offseason threads.

    Excellent and very smart post!

     

    The problem, as I see it, is that the organization is stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. And I'm not talking about payroll per se, or the ongoing debate whether ownership is cheap or not. I'm talking about a real evaluation of the roster and talent on hand. There are absolutely questions that need to be answered. There is hope and potential to be met. And I believe 100% in depth, versatility and options! This includes having a AAA roster with prospects and AAA A guys who can help. But there were just so many things that went wrong in 2018 from injury, attitude, suspension, etc, how do you quantify what to add?

     

    In other words, you want depth and options for Sano and Buxton, and the entire roster. But you still have a limited roster to work with, and you can't bet against the talented young guys you have can you?

     

    There is every reason to believe Sano and Buxton will remain forever hurt, or out of shape, or never recognize crap out of the zone. Every reason to believe Kepler will never put it altogether, or that Polanco will never put a full season together. But there is also every reason to believe that each and every one of these guys will be healthy and ready to go at 25yo and play to their ability, or at least start climbing the stairs to their ceiling.

     

    IMO, the best and smartest thing you could do is to get on these guys, their talent, potential, flashes they have shown, trust in your new manager and his staff, and augment the roster. Add at least one proven, veteran bat. Falvey himself has talked recently about what that kind of veteran presence can mean to a lineup and roster. Is that Cruz, or Lowrie, or someone else? Not sure who the right guy is, but bring in that GUY. Next, bring in at least one quality RP to stabilize the pen and show how to get it done.

     

    Just those two moves alone, with talent on hand and healthy and with progression, could make a world of difference. Despite everything that went wrong in 2018, we lost something like 26 1 run games. How deflating is That?

     

    The bad news is we are still waiting for health and breakouts. The good news is, even with a restrained budget, there is room to add 2-4 additional BP and player options to add talent and depth.

    Its almost as if some people only read stats and don't watch the games.  I know that isn't true, but it sounds like it.  

    -Sano (when healthy) could have a thunderous bat and a bazooka arm, and end up being the most sought after 3rd baseman in the majors.

    -We saw what Buxton can do in the field.  When he finds his hitting stroke (and he will) he will be get MVP consideration.  

    -Polanco has turned into a solid fielder and a strong bat at SS.

    -Schoop, if he returns to 2017 levels would be an all star.

    -Kepler and Rosario are proven excellent fielders and their bats can carry them to the top of the stat sheet.  -Who knows what a year off will do for Castro, but his fielding and pitch calling and framing will make our pitching staff stronger and a .250 average is not out of reach for him.

     

    I know this is more optimism than some folks can take, but we've watched them do it.  The talent is there and it is young.  Lets enjoy this bunch we have and be glad they are giving them another chance to redeem themselves.  :D

    Its almost as if some people only read stats and don't watch the games. I know that isn't true, but it sounds like it.

    -Sano (when healthy) could have a thunderous bat and a bazooka arm, and end up being the most sought after 3rd baseman in the majors.

    -We saw what Buxton can do in the field. When he finds his hitting stroke (and he will) he will be get MVP consideration.

    -Polanco has turned into a solid fielder and a strong bat at SS.

    -Schoop, if he returns to 2017 levels would be an all star.

    -Kepler and Rosario are proven excellent fielders and their bats can carry them to the top of the stat sheet. -Who knows what a year off will do for Castro, but his fielding and pitch calling and framing will make our pitching staff stronger and a .250 average is not out of reach for him.

     

    I know this is more optimism than some folks can take, but we've watched them do it. The talent is there and it is young. Lets enjoy this bunch we have and be glad they are giving them another chance to redeem themselves. :D

    Nothing wrong with optimism. But, I think it's a little unfair to suggest that people who don't share your level of optimism must not be watching the games. There has been plenty of visual evidence suggesting less optimistic results from all of those players.

    I wish the front office shared your optimism and surrounded the core with a good player or four.

    Absolutely!

     

    Going to echo a few comments I just made in a big Ted posted recently.

     

    1] Bullpen: Theee are still quality arms out there. Cody Allen is about as proven a guy as you can find, but coming off a down year. We all know the volatility of one off year for relievers. Only 31yo, I believe, he is perfect for thjs team on a 2-3yr deal. Young enough to easily be as productive as ever, and the FO knows him. Then you can take a flier on a 1 or 1+1 GUY on the rebound.

     

    2] Big bat: Again, Falvey himself just spoke about the impact a veteran bat can have one a lineup for now, and even the next season or two, and the players surrounding him, though it may cost a roster spot for a young player. Is Cruz that guy? Sure seems like a perfect and affordable fit. If not, how about Lowrie, a different kind of bat but a good one, who also offers positional flexibility for the roster.

     

    3] There are still a number of guys, unless I've missed their signings, who are "utility" types who can play multiple positions for depth, competition and flexibility for the roster.

     

    NONE of these moves breaks the bank. But all of them augment this young and talented core Rocco and his staff have to work with. I love all the young talent on hand and have a lot of faith in their ability to climb the stairs toward their ceilings beginning in 2019. But that doesn't mean we shouldn't add even more talent around them.




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