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The trade deadline landscape can vary greatly from year to year. One thing, however, is universally true: impact starting pitching is always in demand.
The Twins happen to possess one of the hottest starters in baseball. Can they leverage Ervin Santana as an arms race develops among contenders? Should they?
Granted, it came at home against an Athletics team that ranks last in the AL in OPS, but Santana's 100-pitch shutout on Wednesday was a thing of beauty. He allowed only two hits with no walks, and struck out eight.
It was a tantalizing reminder of what Santana is capable of at his best. He's been in fine form since mid-June, with a 2.41 ERA in his previous three outings. His latest stretch is a throwback to his final run last year, when he closed out his first season in Minnesota by going 5-1 with a 1.62 ERA in his final seven starts.
But of course, that hot streak was preceded by a very cold one, and the same is true now. Santana is a talented pitcher capable of greatness, but he has a tendency to go in the tank for weeks at a time. That's always been his MO. General managers across the league know it.
Whoever acquires him would be on the hook for $27 million in his age 34 and 35 seasons. Possibly $14 million in 2019, too, if he stays healthy. That's a lot of money, right?
Well, it looks like the best long-term pitching contract the Twins have right now, which isn't saying much when the rest of the field is Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. If $13 million is the going rate for an average pitcher – and that seems to be the case, as the Twins gave Santana his contract with a career ERA+ of 99 – then he's a fair value salary-wise.
Of course, it's a little different when you're looking at the front and back ends of the contract. Santana's a guy with a lot of mileage on his arm, and a half-season drug ban on his recent record. These factors are going to play against any kind of significant return. I would surmise that unless they pick up a big chunk of the tab (unlikely since they're probably going to have to bite the bullet on Nolasco at some point), the best the Twins are going to do is a couple of mid-level prospects. Maybe.
Is it worth making a move at that point? That's a good question for debate, I think. On the one hand, Santana stands as the only remotely stable veteran force in the rotation going forward. On the other hand, the Twins have the worst record in baseball and shouldn't be too concerned with retaining an expensive mid-rotation starter.
Terry Ryan and the front office are wisely taking an open-minded approach to the deadline. As ESPN's Jayson Stark puts it, they're "Telling everyone, 'If you've got any ideas, throw them out there.' "
What's your idea? What should it take to pry Santana loose?
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