Report: Twins And Ervin Santana Agree To Four-Year Deal

Staff could be decent with this. Hope Meyer is in the rotation, May and Milone in the pen. Pelfry going to work for MLB working on speeding up the game!

When you consider almost every FA starting pitcher is overpaid for, this is a pretty decent contract.  I like going about the SP spot with quantity.  Should keep us from having to dig too deep into our system this year.  I like the power arms that can potentially come out of the bullpen if May and Meyer struggle in spring training.  Gibson can stay a 3 or 4.  Santana is a fringe 2, but as hitting declines, pitchers are putting up better numbers.  Depending on where Meyer, May, Burdi, and Jake Reed end up out of spring, there could be some fire coming out of our bullpen.

When you consider almost every FA starting pitcher is overpaid for, this is a pretty decent contract.  I like going about the SP spot with quantity.  Should keep us from having to dig too deep into our system this year.  I like the power arms that can potentially come out of the bullpen if May and Meyer struggle in spring training.  Gibson can stay a 3 or 4.  Santana is a fringe 2, but as hitting declines, pitchers are putting up better numbers.  Depending on where Meyer, May, Burdi, and Jake Reed end up out of spring, there could be some fire coming out of our bullpen.

I would rather have Ervin than Liriano or McCarthy.  No doubt.  $13.5M a year is not bad for a guy that could easily be a #2 starter for at least the first two years.

Great news!

My only qualm about a deal with Santana is around my earlier point about opportunity cost. 

This deal brings the 2015 payroll into the range of $105M.  I think that's quite a bit higher than basically any of us were expecting.  That's great and all, but it would appear that adding other long-term commitments doesn't look likely with something like $95M committed for 2016 as well.  That probably leaves room to fill one hole next year where ever that might be, but it's hard to see tacking on a $20M+ ace.

 

Congrats to the Twins and Terry Ryan for aggressively seeking to improve what has been a dreadful rotation.

Just curious how you get to $95M for 2015?   I have us likely losing $20M in Hunter, Pelfrey, and Plouffe (if traded).  I think you have other minor tweaks that could free up salary, notably in the bullpen as you cut guys like Duensing in favor of Burdi, Reed, etc.

I have us going to at least $85M as a starting point (before increases) and I would think a high point could be $115-$120M.  If they went to $115M in 2010 I would think another five million would be attainable five years later with increased MLB revenues and a better cable deal. 

I thought Santana would get 15 or 16 million per year so I think we did real well to not only get our pitcher but at the price too. 

If you look at his expectations last year he expected a 5 year 75 million and got 1 year at 14.1 million + the 54 million guarantee on this one he came close at 68.1 million.  Does anyone know if there is a 1 million buyout on the option as I see on mlbtraderumors there is an update saying the contract is for 55 million guaranteed.

in regards to blocking people, I just don't see that being an issue.  Santana is effectively replacing Correia in the rotation so that is an upgrade.  Pino, May, Deduno, Pelfrey, Milone, Johnson, and Swarzak all got starts last year and they stink.  If May, Meyer, or Berrios are so good in the minors that they deserve a shot it isn't going to be Santana that blocks them, it is going to be Twins management like last year.  

We just got a good pitcher with a decent K% and the Twins broke the 100 million mark and proved the talk of giving up draft picks was more than hot air.  This is a ground-breaking signing.

Salaries most likely gone in 2016:

10M - Hunter

5M - Pelfrey

5M - Plouffe (trade to make room for Sano)

3M - Duensing

2M - Milone

1M - Nunez

Second round pick, schmeckond round pick. We need another low minors prospect like the Startrib website needs trolls.

The numbers are interesting on Santana vs Nolasco.  Spycake was accurate above and I did a 5 year comp and Nolasco was equal to or better in all numbers (K%, BB%, FIP, xFIP, WAR, ect...) except for the classics (ERA, IP).  

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2014&month=0&season1=2010&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=3830,3200

Many of the new metrics are great predictors but maybe Santana is a guy like Buehrle where they outperform those stats and is worth more than what it looks like they should be?

A great and aggressive move.  Twins have proved that they are committed to fielding a rotation that will give them a chance to win every night.   We have three starters with proven major league credentials, a fourth young arm with dominant - if inconsistent stuff and a legitimate competition for a 5th spot between young arms and proven major league talent.  Not sure what more the fans could want from the team at this point.  

Being mediocre is much better than being the worst! Baby steps.

So that's that.  It looks like TR wants us to be competitive this year.  I wonder if he's done?