Reacting to Twins Blockbuster Trade Speculation

Any sentence that has "trade Arraez" is one I don't like, unless preceded by "The Twins won't trade Arraez."   

Then it is a good one. 

Unless some other teams goes brain dead and offers Mike Trout-like quality, then the Twins should at least listen...

JcS 

First, in terms of trades I would not be willing to give up top prospect for a 1 year rental.  If we can get a long term deal figured out prior to trade, then I would feel different.  Second, I have little interest in Story.  He is a good defender, but on offense he is very overrated.  His numbers away from Coors Field are same as Polonco career numbers.  So on offense he is Polonco, but better on defense.  However, I do not feel he is worth giving up prospects and huge signing, when we have Lewis in wings.  Not saying Lewis a lock, but Story will not put up the offense we want when he is not hitting half his games at Coors Field.  

Lindor I would be willing to take and sign long term as he has hit and carried a bad Cleveland offense for years.  Lindor 1 year younger, and his home road splits not nearly as crazy of a difference.  Only 100 lower OPS, but actually more HR.  The home road normally will happen, with the different batting eye, but Story has a 270 OPS difference, 180 slugging 34 less HR in nearly same AB.  Every number is worse by large margins for Story.  

I will be very upset if Twins give up a top prospect for Story, because he will not be what we want on offense.  If we were just looking to sign Story, I would feel a little different, but to give huge money and top prospects to get him, no thanks. 

Unless we are convinced Lewis cannot play SS long term, I see no point in giving up top talent for either on a rental.  If we do not think Lewis can stay at SS then we do need a long term answer because after Lewis we are very thin on SS prospects for near future.  

I’ve been saying this for weeks. If you could get Story to do a sign and trade, I would include Buxton and Sano and a young pitcher, not one of the 3 top pitching prospect in a trade for Gray and Story.

People ask why would Story not sign with Colorado and then sign with the Twins? Money and a chance to win. Not sure if Colorado can do a big contract with all the money tied to Aranado and Blackman.

We also have a stud that was the top pick in the draft that played CF in the Arizona Fall league. If Story is locked in at SS Lewis can play CF and play great defense!

You have to make a move to get some of the HR back from the loss of Eddie and Cruz. Story will help with this and actually Lewis might also, not much, but Buxton doesn’t hardly hit any.

I have been hearing how the White Sox’s have moved past the Twins in the Central. They are making moves to help their window to win the Central and win Playoff Games! The Twins window is closing because they think that can win without ever making a move. If you were born around 1960 to 1975 you have very found memories of 1987 and 1991 Twins the only winning you have ever witnessed. No Vikings, Timberwolves, or Wild (North Stars). 87 and 91 made us lifetime fans! In 87 and 91 they made some moves. (Blyleven, Morris and Stewart)

Do something! Don’t sell the farm but don’t let the White Sox’s win the Central without doing anything. People keep talking about not making a trade because it may weaken the minor league’s. Well, I guess you can now go across the river and watch the Saint Paul Saints win a playoff game and championship!

I would rather have Polanco and Arraez than Semien and Polanco. Semien would have fit in well with the 2019 Twins, a career year when balls are flying all over and out of stadiums.

Semien really only had that one good year, in 2019. The other years were all consistently average. However, 2019 was a legitimate MVP year from him, something the Twins have not had since 2009 Mauer. Not sure I'm a believer in Semien or not. Depends what the cost is, but he might be a nice low risk high potential reward signing. 

Cinncinnati is trying to attach a bad contract which will lessen the prospect cost. If you take on Moustakous or Castellanos contract probably can't afford Cruz but you can acquire a top pitcher. I think that is a better fit than the shorstop trades.

Moose could replace Arraez's offense at 2b. Completely different type of hitter but he would fit in with Twins clubhouse. Both are average at best defensively. Don't need Castellanos with our abundance of corner outfielders and first basemen.

Arraez for Moustakas and Gray would easily get the job done if the Twins are concerned about Arraez's knees long term. I'd do that. Makes the team better in 2021 and 2022.  

I'm all for trading Arraez for a big time player if his value is what people around here (and Ken Rosenthal?) appear to think.

 

He's certainly a good MLB player, but the one dimensional hitters who don't do much in the way of extra base hits almost always end up wearing out their welcome sooner than expected.

Here's a comparison of three players through their age 23 seasons.

Player A: 543 PA, .302/.352/.379/.731, 7.7% BB rate, 6.8% K rate, 20.1% XBH rate

Player B: 487 PA, .331/.390/.429/.819, 9.2% BB rate, 8.2% K rate, 23.4% XBH rate

Player C: 1201 PA, .299/.341/.424/.765, 6.2% BB rate, 8.5% K rate, 26.7% XBH rate

Player B is Luis Arraez, Player A is Tony Gwynn, Player C is Paul Molitor.  While I agree that one dimensional hitters often have shorter careers, that doesn't hold true when that one dimension is in the 95+% percentile.  Arraez is by any metric in his young career, an elite contact hitter--he legitimately could be an historically elite contact hitter.

Of playes with at least 450 PA in 2019-2020, Arraez is first in total contact %, 2nd in zone contact %, 1st in out-of-zone contact %, and 1st (that is, lowest) in swinging strike %.  He's also 14th (again, lowest) in soft contact %--Luis Arraez makes less soft contact than Mike Freakin' Trout.

Given all of that, and the fact that he still has 4 years of team control left, and will never be all that expensive because he won't win gold gloves or hit 30 homers, if the Indians wanted Arraez in a Lindor deal, I'd tell them that's all they're getting, and they might actually need to give me something besides Lindor.  I totally acknowledge this take will seem crazy to many, but a guy who compares favorably to two inner-ring Hall of Famers at the same point in their careers seems like a very valuable asset, and not one you give away for one year of a different player.

I have been hearing how the White Sox’s have moved past the Twins in the Central. They are making moves to help their window to win the Central and win Playoff Games! The Twins window is closing because they think that can win without ever making a move. If you were born around 1960 to 1975 you have very found memories of 1987 and 1991 Twins the only winning you have ever witnessed. No Vikings, Timberwolves, or Wild (North Stars). 87 and 91 made us lifetime fans! In 87 and 91 they made some moves. (Blyleven, Morris and Stewart)

Do something! Don’t sell the farm but don’t let the White Sox’s win the Central without doing anything. People keep talking about not making a trade because it may weaken the minor league’s. Well, I guess you can now go across the river and watch the Saint Paul Saints win a playoff game and championship!

Umm, just last year the Twins signed Donaldson to a $100M contract, and traded for the guy who just finished second in Cy Young voting.  Exactly what makes you think this FO isn't willing to "do something"?  Never mistake activity for improvement.

The continued mention of shortstop requires inside knowledge concerning Jorge Polanco's recovery from surgery. If he is well, the Twins are set and only look to add a shortstop in a move that qualifies as a steal. There is no way a deal (Lindor or Story) is made for a one year deal. Likewise, the discussions of Sano necessitates a report on his ongoing winter regime. Is Sano working on his agility and conditioning? He needs to play at 250 pounds in my view. The extra weight reduces his considerable athleticism and results in increased strikeouts. The Twins are in a great position to trade or spend. The measure of cost will determine how the front office proceeds. Free agents are very appealing and should be a focus at this point. Trades may open up as teams look to create flexibility in their positions moving beyond 2021. The Twins have a strong case to win next summer and we can expect some action. This, more than anything substantially discussed, is why Rosenthal suggests the Twins as players in the market.