Ranking Prospects: Proximity Versus Upside, Man Against Machine, and What It Means for the Minnesota Twins

The two lists create an interesting juxtaposition, as Longenhagen’s list tends to favor the younger, high-upside prospects, while the ZiPS projection-based list favors not only prior performance, but proximity to the majors as well. 74 players appear on both lists, and they agree on three of the top-four prospects, but there is quite a bit of variation in the rankings. Luckily for us Twins fans, Minnesota’s farm system is stacked with prospects who fit both descriptions, so let’s compare the lists and see what it means for us.

First Longenhagen’s top-100:

It’s hard to argue with the names included, though one could definitely quibble with the ordering. Trevor Larnach and Alex Kirilloff will forever be linked as left-handed hitting bat-first corner outfield prospects (though Kirilloff may well end up at first), but it is generally Kirilloff who has been ranked higher. Royce Lewis comes in first, which is to be expected, and his 13^th overall rating is certainly encouraging. Again, you could arguably flip Jhoan Duran and Jordan Balazovic, but they were also Twins Daily’s fourth and fifth ranked prospects and it’s nice to see them both in the top 100. Finally, although he’s obviously no longer in the organization, Brusdar Graterol fell all the way to 113 on this list. As this list was released after the trade, it’s hard not to wonder if the Twins plan to keep him in the ‘pen and the Boston medical fiasco hurt his ranking.

Now, for some projection-based madness:

The first thing you probably noticed is the ominous omission of both Kirilloff and Larnach. I found this perplexing as they seem to fit the good results/close proximity to the majors narrative that the ZiPS projections are supposed to favor. Fortunately, Szymborski specifically addressed this is the comment section, saying ZiPS is harder on those lower on the defensive spectrum, hated Kirilloff’s 2019 (due to injury and not hitting enough for corner OF/1B) and didn’t like Larnach due to his lack of power.

Before we all go out and start bashing computers, I should point out that according to Szymborski, based on 2014 rankings (ZiPS first top-100 list), ZiPS’s list has combined for 592.2 WAR, more than FanGraphs (563.7), Keith Law (553.8), and MLB Pipeline (448.9).

Royce Lewis also isn’t as well-loved by ZiPS, but considering his disappointing numbers in 2019, it could be taken as a sign of encouragement that he still makes the top-100 in the more number-driven system.

After getting over the exclusion of the aforementioned outfield duo, the next big surprise is that both catcher Ryan Jeffers and starter Lewis Thorpe make the list. Jeffers has gained a lot of helium and was up to number seven on the Twins Daily list (sixth without Graterol), but this is certainly the first list that includes him in the top 100. On the one hand, Jeffers’s improvement in the area of pitch framing and overall defense would seem to favor him more on traditional, scouting-based lists, but his proficiency with the bat as a catcher, and the fact that he reached and played well at AA in 2019, undoubtably boosted his projections.

Although it’s mildly surprising to see Lewis Thorpe ranked so high, he seems to best fit the ZiPS-type profile. At one time he was more the high-upside prospect you would dream on, but his consistent results, high strikeout rates, and proximity to the majors (where of course he’s already pitched) make him very projectable as well. He’s a perfect case of a prospect who may actually lose some of their prospect shimmer by having already debuted. It’s easy to see his 6.18 ERA in Minnesota (27.2 IP) and come away unimpressed, but his 3.47 FIP paints a brighter picture (and projection).

ZiPS keeps the surprises coming with the most aggressive Jordan Balazovic ranking you’ll find anywhere, who at 24 is the top Twins prospect (Interestingly, Duran doesn’t make the cut). Though unexpected, the aggressive ranking is not unfounded as Balazovic seems a safe bet to remain a starter and is arguably Minnesota’s top pitching prospect. If he continues to pitch as he has and builds innings in 2020, ZiPS won’t be alone in ranking Balazovic so favorably.

Finally, had he stayed in Minnesota, Brusdar Graterol would’ve rounded out the ZiPS top-five. The ZiPS ranking is closer to where he sits on most top-100 lists, and it makes sense that ZiPS might be higher on Graterol by being unaware of his projected 2020 bullpen role.

What do you think of the lists? Do you lean more towards upside and high ceiling or proximity and a solid floor? Finally, is a projection system like ZiPS worthwhile for ranking prospects?

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