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Among the catchers who will be checking into camp on February 21st will be Kurt Suzuki and newly acquired John Ryan Murphy. Barring injuries in March, these will be the two backstops present on the big-league roster when the club heads north.
There's little doubt which player will be the nominal starter at the outset of the season – that billing will belong to the veteran Suzuki – but we don't really have much of an idea as to how this timeshare will play out. That will be determined, to some extent, by how things progress in April and May, but the way these two catchers perform in Ft. Myers next month could help dictate the balance of this arrangement early on.
Let's take a look at the relative merits of each heading into camp.
Why Kurt Suzuki Will Win The Job
Over the last two seasons, Suzuki has started 249 of Minnesota's 324 games behind the plate. While his offensive output has fluctuated, he has proven durable and reliable as a catcher, and he is considered to have a good rapport with the pitching staff. That staff remains almost totally incumbent heading into the 2016 campaign.
In his interview with Parker Hageman for the Offseason Handbook, Terry Ryan stated that he expects Suzuki to settle in somewhere between his offensive numbers from 2014 and 2015. That's a reasonable stance; Suzuki's OPS in his first year with the Twins (.727) was nearly as far above his career mark of .681 as his second-year OPS (.610) was below. If the 32-year-old could rebound to the mid-point of his two years with the team and put up a .670 OPS, it would be right in line with what the average American League catcher produced last year (.678) and I think the Twins are willing to live with an average-hitting backstop at the bottom of the lineup.
While pitch framing metrics and caught stealing percentages don't view Suzuki's defense all that kindly, he has mostly been able to avoid blatant gaffes and blunders, aside from the occasional passed ball. The coaching staff certainly appreciates many things that he brings to the table – not the least of them being his toughness. There's something to be said about a guy who takes the punishment he does, and reliably gets back out there day after day. It sets an example for players up and down the roster, and especially the young catcher who is being groomed behind him.
Lastly, Suzuki is making $6 million this year (about 12 times as much as Murphy), and any team is going to try and squeeze value out of all that committed money if possible.
Why John Ryan Murphy Will Win The Job
Offensively, Murphy figures to be an immediate upgrade over Suzuki. He's eight years younger and has simply demonstrated more skill with the stick in recent years, excepting the veteran's outlier 2014 season.
If the Twins are trying to garner more production from the catcher position – and that should certainly be a key consideration – making Murphy the primary starter is a step in that direction. There's no real reason to believe he'll be much above average this year, or even necessarily much above Suzuki, but he offers more upside and getting him regular at-bats is a way to help move him toward reaching that upside.
Defense will be the crucial factor for Murphy. The reports from New York have been solid, and he is viewed as a guy who has been rapidly improving over the past few years.
Still, the Twins have always placed a premium value on catchers who are able to build a comfort level with the staff. That tends to be a shortcoming for younger backstops, and especially one like Murphy who is brand new to the organization. If Murphy's work behind the plate earns high marks from his pitchers, it will help his case for increased playing time immensely.
One final item to consider here is that Suzuki's $6 million vesting option for 2017 becomes guaranteed if he reaches 485 plate appearances this year, but I don't think that will come into play. He came up just short of that figure in 2015 despite no trips to the DL and no real competition for reps.
Others In The Mix: John Hicks, Stuart Turner, Mitch Garver
Beyond Suzuki and Murphy, there is almost no major-league catching experience in the entire organization, which makes Ryan's limited attention to the position over the offseason a bit frustrating.
Hicks, claimed off waivers from Seattle in early December, leads the way with 34 MLB plate appearances (all in 2015) so he stands third in line behind the two top names. An injury to Suzuki or Murphy would likely lead to Hicks taking over as backup. That's unnerving since the 26-year-old put up a brutal .063/.091/.094 slash line in his first cup of tea with the Mariner's last year, but he has shown some offensive ability in the minors.
Turner and Garver are Minnesota's best hopes for an internally developed solution at catcher. Of the two, Garver has produced more in the minors but Stuart has advanced farther, having spent last year in Double-A. Neither seems close to the majors barring a big breakthrough in 2016.
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