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Obviously, the new top decision-maker will want to pursue every avenue for improving Minnesota's historically bad starting corps. But that won't involve rebuilding from the ground up. There are usable assets on hand and the Twins will certainly give some of them an opportunity to rebound.
The question is which ones should be penciled in as members of the 2017 rotation, and which should be heading into spring training on the outside looking in, needing to earn their way back. This determination will have a major impact on how the front office approaches the offseason.
I would say that the following players will -- and in my estimation, probably should -- be viewed as locks:
Ervin Santana: I presume no one's going to argue with this one. Santana is on his way to posting the lowest ERA for a Twins starter since that other Santana guy left. Some might suggest he should be traded over the winter, and that's a discussion for another time, but if he's here, Erv is the Opening Day starter (again) in 2017.
Kyle Gibson: I suspect that some will disagree with this. Undeniably, Gibson has had an awful season. But he's just not a guy you give up on. He's 29, he was their best starter a year ago, and he'll be fairly inexpensive in his first year of arbitration. The ability is there but for whatever reason Gibson has been unable to straighten himself out this season. He looks like someone who would benefit greatly from a new coaching voice.
Jose Berrios: On the one hand, he has done nothing to earn a guaranteed spot with his rocky performance as a rookie. But on the other hand, it makes no sense to send Berrios back to the minors. He has nothing left to accomplish there. He needs to sink or swim in the rotation from Day One next year. He'll have the next few months to focus on everything he needs to improve, and something tells me there will be no shortage of hard work put forth on that front.
Hector Santiago: Since his dreadful opening stretch with the new club, Santiago has gone back to his usual routine, delivering solid if unspectacular starts each fifth day. He'll be 29 and on a one-year deal through arbitration, so there isn't much risk. If he's healthy and decent, he eats innings and fills a spot at the back of the rotation. If he's not good, the Twins can cut him loose and try another option. I only refer to him as a lock because that is what he'll be once the team commits to paying him close to $10 million for next year.
With those four in place, the Twins will have one wide-open spot to fill. They could look to address it externally, but there will be several options on hand. Let's run through some of those candidates:
Phil Hughes: Coming off thoracic outlet surgery, I severely doubt that he'll be healthy and strong enough to be an MLB starter next April. Let's not forget that he was throwing in the 80s and fatiguing in the fifth inning by the time he finally submitted to his shoulder issues. Although he'll be nine months removed from surgery by the start of next season, I'd rather see him ramp up and get sharp in the minors or extended spring before being inserted back into the big-league rotation.
Trevor May: The Twins have declared that they intend to return May to a starting role, which is good news. But he hasn't started a game since last August. After altering his routine and approach to that of a reliever, he'll now need to switch back. There is no assurance he'll be able to complete that process in camp, and the Twins would be hard-pressed to rely upon it. He will have one option remaining if they want to start him in Triple-A as a go-to reinforcement.
Tyler Duffey: My belief is that Duffey needs to swap roles with May and head to the bullpen. He was a dominant collegiate closer before the Twins drafted him, and his two-pitch combo is tailor-made for shorter stints. Even if the team doesn't go that route, I have to imagine that his brutal results this year have eliminated him from any kind of consideration to open 2017 in the rotation, regardless of how he looks in March.
Adalberto Mejia: Acquired from San Francisco at the deadline, he had a nice year in Triple-A and briefly debuted for the Twins last month. Mejia is bordering on big-league ready but I suspect that he'll begin at Rochester again next year. It's tough to slot a guy with so little experience into a rotation that desperately needs to improve, especially with Berrios already in that mix.
There are a few other prospects that could factor into this conversation, as well as Tommy Milone if he's kept around (doubtful). But these are the names I would have listed as legitimate options. Obviously, it will be helpful to add more depth and upside to this group, and that will be a priority during the coming offseason.
What are your thoughts? Who should be penciled in? If you're the GM, how many starters are you set on acquiring this winter?
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