Orioles 8, Twins 6: The Piggyback Doesn't Work But At Least They Tried

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 1 K (56 Pitches, 37 Strikes, 66 %)
Home Runs: Royce Lewis (2)
Bottom 3 WPA: Mick Abel (-0.59), Matt Wallner (-0.17) Byron Buxton (-0.15)
Win Probability Chart (Via FanGraphs):

The Twins entered the third game of the new season with a chance to take two of three games from the Orioles in Baltimore. The bats have been predictably inept thus far, but the pitching had been decent, and the team managed to manufacture four runs despite just four hits in Saturday's 4-1 win.

On Sunday, Bailey Ober took the mound looking to fight back against allegations that he is "cooked," working with lower velocity, struggling to reach 90 MPH in spring training, and coming off a brutal 2025 season.

He shied away from the fastball early, throwing a barrage of changeups and sweepers to keep the Orioles hitters off balance, inducing numerous grounders and pop-ups. The fastball didn't return to his 2023-2024 peak by any means, but the exit velocities were low, and he was efficient early.

The Twins hitters were up against Shane Baz, who has been a hot prospect for approximately 15 years, first sent to the Rays in the Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows-for-Chris Archer trade of 2017. He was dealt to Baltimore this winter and signed a five-year, $68-million contract extension this week, a big bet on his potential despite just one healthy season in his five years in the big leagues. He throws hard and has a wicked breaking ball. He showed his upside in a 1-2-3 first inning, including two weak fly outs from Kody Clemens and Luke Keaschall and a challenged strike three call to Byron Buxton that was upheld.

The Twins got to work in the second inning, however. Matt Wallner roped a single to center, Josh Bell was hit by a pitch, and Victor Carratini checked in with his second hit as a Twin. The much-maligned Trevor Larnach bounced a ball to the hole between first and second, reaching an infield single to score the game's first run. Royce Lewis then got ahead in the count before striking out looking for Baz's 99-MPH fastball; it was a well-located 92-MPH cutter instead. No matter, Tristan Gray was up next and clobbered a 107-MPH double to right, clearing the bases and giving the Twins a surprising 4-0 lead.

Gray, 30, is a journeyman who has shown some power in the minors but hasn't gotten much run in the big leagues. If the Twins are planning to outperform logic and reason this year and actually compete, it will take a couple of Willi Castro-style success stories to provide the necessary variance. Maybe Gray can be that. Who knows?

Ober took that four-run lead into the fourth inning, but the Orioles were ready for him the second time through the lineup. Pete Alonso singled, as did Samuel Basallo. The hulking Tyler O'Neill then worked the count to 3-1 before unloading on an 88.8-MPH fastball at the top of the zone from Ober. His 391-foot blast cut the Twins' lead to one run.

Baz struggled with his command in his tragic second inning, but otherwise was sharp with his knuckle-curve, tying Twins hitters into knots. The most the Twins could muster were bloop doubles from Bell, Larnach and Buxton in the fourth and fifth innings, but Bell was cut down unnecessarily trying to advance on a grounder to short in the fourth, and Buxton overran second base and was caught trying to scamper back in the fifth.

Mick Abel made his 2026 debut in the bottom of the fifth, a major yin to Ober's yang. He began by striking out Jeremiah Jackson on a challenge fastball and dotting another 97-MPH fastball on the corner to catch Taylor Ward looking (after a nice ABS challenge by Caratini).

The sixth was more of a struggle, as Abel was unable to put away numerous Orioles hitters with two strikes, letting O'Neill come back from 0-2 to draw a walk; getting ahead of Coby Mayo before allowing a bloop double; and seeing Dylan Beavers rope a 3-2 changeup into right field for a two-run double to flip the game.

That lead would not last long, as Royce Lewis jumped all over a breaking ball from Yaramil Hiraldo, launching a 377-foot home run to tie the game. He'd also given the Twins the lead in Saturday's tilt with a two-run blast. That WPA is looking pretty good early on. Perhaps a bit shaken by that, Hiraldo proceeded to walk the bases loaded for Wallner, who showed there is something worse than a typical strikeout in 2026: a strikeout where you challenge the call on an obvious strike, costing your team the ability to challenge the rest of the game.

That proved costly right away, as Abel walked Gunnar Henderson in the bottom half of the inning on a clear strike to put two men on with no outs following a Ward single. Alonso then poked a single just over Keaschall's outstretched glove to reclaim the lead. Adley Rutschman delivered a pinch-hit double off the wall in dead center field to further the unraveling.

The Twins didn't quit, at least. Bell walked and Caratini singled against righty Tyler Wells to bring the tying run to the plate, but that tying run was James Outman. He walked somehow, which brought up Lewis—who struck out on a high change. Gray then singled up the middle to keep the line moving and add to his legend. Clemens struck out, bringing up Buxton with two down to face old friend Yennier Cano. It was a lengthy battle, but Buxton ended up swinging over the top of that patented sinker Cano throws to end the inning.

Running on fumes, Abel was brought back for the eighth and allowed a single and a walk, bailed out by Blaze Alexander getting caught stealing by Caratini. Anthony Banda was finally brought in to face Henderson with one on and one out. He was able to retire Henderson on a fielder's choice, then caught him taking off early from first to end the frame.

Keaschall led off the ninth against All-Star closer Ryan Helsley with a single, but the rally fizzled from there, despite a Henderson fielding error.

Things to Watch:

-Brooks Lee sat in favor of Gray after starting the year 0-6 with three strikeouts.

-Trevor Larnach made his second straight start in left field, as Twins manager Derek Shelton has shown his preference early on is to have Josh Bell DH against righties with Clemens at first base. I question the defensive upgrade of DH-ing Larnach over Bell, since Clemens could conceivably play a better left field than Larnach, but what do I know?

-Abel began warming up in the top of the fourth, with Ober having not had much trouble to that point. That invited the question of how much the Twins trust Ober even when he is "cruising." Was the intention to get Abel some work with all the early-season off days, or is Ober getting the Simeon Woods RIchardson treatment, i.e., not being trusted to go through a lineup more than twice?

On that note, Abel was allowed to stay in the game and take a beating, throwing 71 pitches over his three innings, allowing multiple runs in two of those. With the game hanging in the balance, it was a little surprising a fresh reliever was not brought in for the seventh, and again when Abel got into trouble that inning.

But wait, there was more! Abel came out to start the eighth for some reason, his velocity dropping down to 94 MPH with the fastball. He didn't get anyone out outside the caught stealing, and ended up with twelve baserunners allowed in 3 1/3 innings.

-Josh Bell reached four times with two doubles. He runs hot and cold, so it's nice to see him coming out of the gates getting results.

-Austin Martin pinch-hit for Larnach in the sixth, and was pinch-hit for by Outman in the eighth. This could be Shelton getting cute with the logic of playing the platoons and improving his left field defense more as the game went on. The problem is that Outman can't hit, and are we even sure Outman is an upgrade defensively at this point?

What’s Next: The Twins head to Kansas City for the first time in 2026 with Simeon Woods RIchardson (7-4, 4.04 ERA in 2025) opposing Kris Bubic (8-7, 2.55 ERA). SWR finished 2025 on a high note, perfecting his new splitter and showing the ability to put away hitters for the first time in his career on a consistent basis. Bubic was dominant for Kansas City, with nasty stuff from the left side, his only weakness being health, never surpassing 130 IP in his six years in the majors.

Postgame Interviews:

(Coming soon)

Bullpen Usage Chart: