Offseason Status Update: The Long Winter Begins

I wish I could set an exciting tone for this offseason. I really do. I wish I felt confident that big, splashy moves were ahead; an emphatic statement of commitment from the franchise to righting the ship in the wake an embarrassing collapse. But I don't.

At a macro level, major change is certainly afoot for the Twins, who are officially up for sale as the Pohlad family actively explores suitors. In terms of roster action this winter, however, a relative adherence to the status quo may be the best we can realistically hope for, as the front office navigates challenging financial constraints.

There have been no indications that a rise in spending is on the way -- only lukewarm unsourced assurances that payroll won't drop any further following last year's $30 million slash. (We'll see.) Ownership has made clear that they are more concerned about maintaining an attractive bottom line than making winning a priority. If that was the case last year, coming off a long-awaited postseason breakthrough, I'm not sure why it would change this year.

Nonetheless, things are going to happen this offseason. We might get news of a sale, or at the very least, that specter will loom over everything. The hitting staff needs to be built out around new hire Matt Borgschulte. And one way or another, the front office needs to figure out some gaps on this roster.

Much like my weekly recap columns during the season, these sporadic "offseason status updates" are intended to catch you up in short order on the latest news you need to know, for those not keeping up with the day-to-day minutiae of MLB's offseason. Now that the World Series is officially in the rearview mirror, and significant developments are already beginning to take place, here's your stage-setting Twins offseason update.

Alex Kirilloff Announces His Retirement at Age 26
The Twins offseason opened up with a gut-punch, as the first baseman shared news on Thursday morning of his decision to step away from the game. "In my nine professional seasons, I’ve encountered numerous injuries, which led me to search for new ways to overcome the pain," Kirilloff wrote. "These challenges have taken a toll on me mentally and physically; over time, I’ve realized that my passion for playing the game has shifted."

One of the most consequential decisions the Twins were facing this winter, from my view, was whether or not they could trust Kirilloff's health, knowing that his talent was too good to give up on if he had any chance of rebounding physically from this latest setback. Now, he has taken that decision out of their hands, bringing a sad end to one of the more promising careers in recent memory.

You can learn more about the back injury that ultimately spelled the end of Kirilloff's career in Lucas Seehafer's writeup.

Manuel Margot and Kyle Farmer's 2025 Options Declined
This was a far less shocking development. Moving on from the underwhelming Margot, who had a $12 million club option, was a no-brainer, especially since the Twins aren't on the hook for his $2 million buyout. The same goes for Farmer, who would've made over $6 million again after posting an OPS+ of 82.

While expected and well warranted, the departures of Margot and Farmer open up more clear holes on next year's roster alongside first base. That's where things start to get hairy. 

Projecting the 2025 Roster and Payroll
With Kirilloff and Margot out of the picture, we have a little more clarity around the outlook for next year's roster as it currently stands. Max Kepler, Carlos Santana and Caleb Thielbar will all hit the free agent market when it opens up next week. Farmer and Margot are out after having their 2025 options declined. Jorge Alcala also has a team option ($1.5 million), which I'd expect but the Twins activate but that's no guarantee.

Based on these and a few other arbitration-related assumptions, here's how the 2025 roster currently projects:

In overviewing this roster makeup, a few things become immediately apparent. They need a first baseman. Jose Miranda is not an option as primary starter, or shouldn't be. I'm not sure who else would even conceivably play there other than, like, Yunior Severino. The Twins also desperately need to bolster their bench, ideally with higher-performing versions of Farmer and Margot. 

At the same time, if the front office is indeed up against a $130 million budget, they have less than no money to address these needs. By my (inexact) calculations, the Twins are about $4 million in the red for 2025 before making any moves. So unfortunately, one of the big storylines heading into the offseason will be: How can they create a modicum of flexibility?

A salary dump at the Carlos Correa, Pablo Lopez or Byron Buxton level is too grim for me to presently contemplate. So instead we turn out attention to the players who would be much less painful to lose.

Can the Twins Find Takers for Chris Paddack or Christian Vazquez?
When you look at the roster layout above, these names stand out most as the ones the Twins could most comfortably part ways with to unlock salary relief. Both were named by MLB Trade Rumors among top candidates to move this offseason. 

I have no doubt the Twins will be motivated to deal both. That extra $17 million could go a long way toward patching up some of the aforementioned needs, and you're not losing much if at all by "downgrading" from an injury-plagued Paddack to David Festa, or a 34-year-old Vazquez to Jair Camargo. 

Then again, I just legitimately wonder if there's going to be a real market for either one of these players. Their price tags aren't huge, and there are specific reasons why each could be valued (Paddack's upside, Vazquez's reliability), but they're coming off bad years with question marks attached. I could see those salaries being scrutinized heavily at a time where teams across MLB might be looking to scale back spending.

If they're going to shop these two, the Twins will be compelled to act fast so they can free up that money to spend elsewhere before desired targets come off the board. 

I don't know that it'll be an exciting offseason, but I do believe it'll be an intriguing one as Derek Falvey confronts these high-stakes challenges and navigates hot stove season without his right-hand man Thad Levine for the first time. Make sure you stay tuned into Twins Daily for coverage and analysis of everything as it happens. It's also a perfect time to sign up as a Caretaker, supporting our community's work and gaining access to premium Offseason Handbook content.