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Just two years ago the San Diego Padres won just 66 games. Jump ahead another season and they won 70 in what seemed like a promising year, a second straight campaign with 90 losses. In a pandemic altered 2020 they leapt forward to the tune of a 37-win tally, or what can be extrapolated to a 99-win pace over 162 games. They had arrived, and then General Manager A.J. Preller decided he wanted more.
For the past few seasons San Diego has developed and drafted their talent. Fernando Tatis Jr. is a superstar. They have among the best farm systems in the game. Supplementing took place in the form of Manny Machado. Once it became clear they were ready, Mike Clevinger, Blake Snell, and Yu Darvish were all added to the mix while keeping the bulk of their prospects intact. Call Preller a magician if you must, but what he’s really doing is orchestrating opportunity.
Enter the Minnesota Twins. After an ugly 103 loss campaign in 2016, the Paul Molitor-led group responded to win 85 games a year later. While a step forward, it was clear Molitor wasn’t the man for a front office led by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, so waiting for their opportunity made sense. In 2019 the group went gangbusters in year one under Rocco Baldelli, setting offensive records and winning 101 games. They signed Josh Donaldson in the offseason and now were pushing chips in. Following 36 wins a year ago, questions surround the offseason and it’s becoming time for some answers.
The markets in Minnesota and San Diego are not all that dissimilar. Back in 2019 Statista reported revenues for the Padres of $299 million. The team directly behind them? Minnesota, at $297 million. Last year the Padres prorated payroll checked in 11th in baseball, at $73 million, while the Twins came in 17th (just below league average) at $55 million. A year before that however, San Diego was 24th at $104 million while Minnesota was 18th at $125 million.
Winter is hardly over, and to be quite frank we don’t even have agreed upon rules for the 2021 season at this point, but the reality is that it’s time for the Twins to step up. There’s been rumblings that Minnesota is lurking and ready to make some splashes, but that absolutely has to turn into reality. Marcus Semien would be a great addition. The return of Nelson Cruz makes sense. Jake Odorizzi could be a fit and swinging some deals for more starting pitching should be on the docket as well.
For teams in mid-market capacities as the Twins are, there is an importance to have prospects pan out. The cost certainty and effectiveness of pre-arbitration money is necessary. What makes be perfectly executed however, is understanding which prospects contribute to a window and which ones bring benefit as tradeable assets. It’s hard to stomach dealing names like Alex Kirilloff, Royce Lewis, or Trevor Larnach. Unless they coincide in the midst of similar opportunity however, their value becomes one of diminishing returns.
The idea for the Twins is not to swap out every top prospect for proven commodities, but instead to dissect, deploy, and disperse those unproven assets in the most effective way. Preller accomplished talent acquisition at an extremely high level while still holding onto the greatest parts of his farm system. Minnesota doesn’t have the same top end or depth as San Diego, but there’s definitely pieces that would warrant a real and substantial return.
I have no problem with the front office believing in their infrastructure; they’ve proven that it can bear fruit. I can believe in Ian Gibault or Brandon Waddell becoming the next Matt Wisler because of the track record the staff has established. What has to happen beyond there is the acquisition of already high ceiling players that can then shoulder the load and potentially take more steps forward.
Baseball is not a sport in which one or two players can carry an entire club to a championship. Minnesota has one of the stronger groups in the sport prior to making these necessary moves. Adding more top end talent, even if that comes at the cost of future prospect production or additional payroll commitments, is where this club finds itself needing to execute. It won’t be on Royce Lewis or Jordan Balazovic to end a Postseason skid a couple of years from now. The opportunity to make a real run with significant talent is right now, and commitment is something necessary to be seen from the Pohlad family right on through the front office.
San Diego has created their opportunity and are now pushing the envelope. It’s not something that Minnesota is out of their league in doing, and it’s best they get out of their element and do it.
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