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    MIN 9, HOU 5: Bats Thrive, Pitching Survives


    John  Bonnes
    Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Half the game was a party. The other half was torture. But the underdog Twins won an important game versus the Astros on Monday night thanks to a free-wheeling offense, nervy pitching from some unlikely names and some stellar defense.

    Box Score

    Odorizzi: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 63% strikes

    Home Runs: Castro (1), Polanco (4)

    Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (4-5, 2B, HR), Cruz (2-5, both infield hits)

    WPA of +0.1: Odorizzi (.157), Cron (.146), Polanco (.149), Kepler (.112)

    WPA of -0.1: none

    2019-04-22 WPA Chart.JPG

    (chart via FanGraphs)

    Lowest High-Hanging Fruit

    This is the game in this series that the Twins really needed. On Tuesday they’ll face Wade Miley (LHP, 3.32 ERA) and on Wednesday Justin Verlander (3.00 ERA, 38K). Tonight they faced Brad Peacock, who is far from a pushover, but is Houston's fifth starter and hadn’t pitched as a starter in two weeks.

    But that doesn’t mean it was low-hanging fruit. The Astros were still favored. Vegas gave them a 60% chance of winning.

    Survive and Advance

    Given the offense was seeing the back of the Astros' rotation, the Twins biggest challenge was keeping the Astros' lineup relatively in check for nine innings. Twins starting pitching hasn’t had a lot of success getting much past the fifth inning, even with good starts.

    Plus, after playing (and winning) three games over the last two days, the Twins two best relievers were probably unavailable. Taylor Rogers threw 45 pitches Saturday and Sunday, and Trevor Hildenberger threw 38, so it was unlikely either was going to be used except in the direst of emergencies.

    Odorizzi's performance gave him the highest Win Probability Added (WPA) score, and it probably underplays just how valuable he was. He navigated the Astros lineup almost completely three times. You might remember that navigating a lineup three times was not Odorizzi’s strong suit last year: opponents had a 1.159 OPS against him when facing him a third time. This time he gutted his way through 5 2/3 IP, giving up just two runs. Trevor May, who also threw 20 pitches yesterday, got the last out of the sixth.

    That left three fairly high-leverage innings to navigate and four available bullpen arms: RHP (and closer) Blake Parker, RHP Ryne Harper, RHP Tyler Duffey and LHP Adalberto Mejia. Manager Rocco Baldelli chose Harper for the seventh inning, Mejia for the eighth and Parker for the ninth. Harper gave up a three-run home run on a questionable pitch choice, but the rest of the trio held. The Twins had the game they needed, pieced together from some unlikely names.

    Defensive Play Of The Game

    In the bottom of the fourth, with the Twins leading 3-1, Odorizzi escaped a possible big inning thanks to an Eddie Rosario to Jonathan Schoop to Jason Catro relay that cut down Josh Reddick at the plate. Enjoy:

    https://twitter.com/ParkerHageman/status/1120502066105999360

    More Offense

    The firepower that the Twins displayed in Baltimore continued in Houston, with a couple of noteworthy rebounds. Jorge Polanco, after a mini-slump in Baltimore and a rough first at-bat, had another monster game. Seriously, he has a .776 slugging percentage. That's obscene. Jason Castro, who entered the game hitting .143, left the game with an .823 OPS and hit his first home run this year. And Nelson Cruz beat out two infield singles that left Twins announcer Dick Bremer joking about the imminent apocalypse. Watching the top half of the innings was legitimately fun all night.

    Alternately, the bottom half was legitimately nerve-racking, but a middle-of-the-rotation starter and some middle relief arms did anything but a middling job. The Twins stole a game in Houston while simultaneously resting some of their more valuable bullpen arms. That can only help as they face even more difficult pitching the next two nights.

    Bullpen Usage

    Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days. It looks like the only bullpen arm who might be held back is Trevor May:

    2019-04-22 Bullpen.JPG

    Next Three Games

    Tue at HOU, 7:10 pm CT (Pineda-Miley)

    Wed at HOU, 7:10 pm CT (TBD-Verlander)

    Fri vs BLT, 7:10 pm CT (Berrios?-Cobb?)

    Last Game

    MIN 4, BAL 3: Gibby Good, Hildy Holds, Rogers Saves the Sweep


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    Featured Comments

     

    Am I crazy or does Trevor May just not really look right out there? His command and control look out of whack, and I'm wondering if it's a confidence issue. Kinda feels like he needed another 2 weeks of spring training, just throwing at guys. Hope he pulls out of it, because he has the ability to be a terrific reliever.

     

    That's May. Very good sometimes, can't find the strike zone or even the catcher other times.

     

    With one guy on base, two outs, and a 4 run lead, I'd leave Odorizzi in there -- especially when the bullpen being overused. There would be plenty of time to pull him later and protect the lead if things went south.

     

    And then May comes in ... just to get one out?

     

    Harper was clearly struggling. A walk, three hits, and a home run. There was no reason to leave him out there for a full inning.

     

    This game was only close because of Baldelli.

    I don't see anything wrong with Baldelli's bullpen mgt last night. Trying to get more than a starter can give is always wrong, and if anything, Odorizzi was in the game too long, not too short.

     

    The game was close because Houston is good, and the Twins bullpen isn't. I'm surprised they got even one out from May, and Rogers was unavailable.

    With one guy on base, two outs, and a 4 run lead, I'd leave Odorizzi in there -- especially when the bullpen being overused. There would be plenty of time to pull him later and protect the lead if things went south.

     

    And then May comes in ... just to get one out?

     

    Harper was clearly struggling. A walk, three hits, and a home run. There was no reason to leave him out there for a full inning.

     

    This game was only close because of Baldelli.

     

    I think a potent Houston lineup might disagree with you on the last part.

     

    Plus, he's only ~40 IP removed from TJ surgery.

    May was optioned to the minors for awhile last year too, so he's actually up to 65.2 regular season innings since the surgery. That's basically a full season for a reliever. (Plus another 8 innings in spring training.)

    I still like Harper quite a bit. I think maybe he was feeling a little too good about his fastball because he was hitting 91 consistently and I think I saw 92 a few times. That's a nice improvement from the 89 he normally throws. Bad decision on Correa, but that's a good lineup and a very good hitter. 

    Barring injury this team only gets better as the season progresses.  We should actually have two more wins than we do solely based on poor managing (which is expected early on in Rocco's tenure). 

     

    Get ready for a run people.  After what we've been through the last 8 years or so, this is going to be fun.

     

    Barring injury this team only gets better as the season progresses.  We should actually have two more wins than we do solely based on poor managing (which is expected early on in Rocco's tenure). 

     

    Get ready for a run people.  After what we've been through the last 8 years or so, this is going to be fun.

     

    Maybe. More likely there is some coming back down to earth that will happen, but the same can be said for all of the teams who had strong starts.

     

    I think this will be a repeat of 2017 where the Twins and the Indians are neck and neck for most of the year, but the Indians won't go on an insanely long winnings streak to close out the year.

     

    Note this doesn't mean this team is as good as the 2017 Twins were. They are probably better. 2017 was a down year in the AL.

     

    We're back to the same question: Can this team win a playoff game? I don't know yet.

    Edited by Doomtints

    rant/

     

    There are some legitimate complaints to be made about BP usage this season, but some are taking it too far, IMO. These pitchers who are slated to be a part of the roster need to pitch and if/when one gives up baserunners or even runs, it's not due to Baldelli's poor managing skills every single time. The team needs to know what they have in these guys and that means using them in all sorts of situations. I've actually been pleasantly surprised by the bullpen usage when using the previous three years as the measuring stick. The armchair QB nonsense about 'why use X in Y situation when Z is a superior option' is a really tired trope. That logic leads to overuse of the top 2 or 3 pitchers you trust. There are times where a valid criticism can be made, but the doom and gloom about every bullpen outing not going 1,2,3 for 3+ innings is lazy. 

     

    Accept that the bullpen is unlikely to be the best you have ever seen. Accept that you will see pitchers give up baserunners and runs. Accept that your least favorite bullpen pitcher will pitch in a situation you'd prefer he not be in. Accept that Mejia will blow a close lead in the late innings because the manager didn't want to go to Rogers again. If the bar to clear for the 2019 bullpen is perfection, you're not going to enjoy this season much no matter the outcome.

     

    /rant

     

    rant/

     

    There are some legitimate complaints to be made about BP usage this season, but some are taking it too far, IMO. These pitchers who are slated to be a part of the roster need to pitch and if/when one gives up baserunners or even runs, it's not due to Baldelli's poor managing skills every single time. The team needs to know what they have in these guys and that means using them in all sorts of situations. I've actually been pleasantly surprised by the bullpen usage when using the previous three years as the measuring stick. The armchair QB nonsense about 'why use X in Y situation when Z is a superior option' is a really tired trope. That logic leads to overuse of the top 2 or 3 pitchers you trust. There are times where a valid criticism can be made, but the doom and gloom about every bullpen outing not going 1,2,3 for 3+ innings is lazy. 

     

    Accept that the bullpen is unlikely to be the best you have ever seen. Accept that you will see pitchers give up baserunners and runs. Accept that your least favorite bullpen pitcher will pitch in a situation you'd prefer he not be in. Accept that Mejia will blow a close lead in the late innings because the manager didn't want to go to Rogers again. If the bar to clear for the 2019 bullpen is perfection, you're not going to enjoy this season much no matter the outcome.

     

    /rant

    Well said!  

     

    I also have to accept that I'm simply not going to enjoy watching the bullpen hang on for dear life many nights! But it is what it is, like it or not! :)

    Edited by wsnydes

     

    /rant

     

    I'm sorry but when you are watching a game, predicting exactly what will happen, only to then have to watch it happen, you have *every right* to call it out afterward.

     

    I count two, maybe three losses on Baldelli's pitching management. That's hardly "every time" -- yet it is still signficant.

     

    Baldelli got away with one here. He won't have the same luxury in September, nor will he have this type of good luck against some AL East teams. These are the types of lapses in judgment that get the Twins bounced out of the playoffs or embarrassed when facing some teams in the regular season.

    Edited by Doomtints

     

    I'm sorry but when you are watching a game, predicting exactly what will happen, only to then have to watch it happen, you have *every right* to call it out afterward.

     

    I count two, maybe three losses on Baldelli's pitching management. That's hardly "every time" -- yet it is still signficant.

     

    Baldelli got away with one here. He won't have the same luxury in September, nor will he have this type of good luck against some AL East teams. These are the types of lapses in judgment that get the Twins bounced out of the playoffs or embarrassed when facing some teams in the regular season.

     

    But isn't that exactly the point?  He has to "get away with one here" fairly frequently so that he doesn't overwork Rogers, Hildy (and hopefully at least two other relievers that are added or promoted or that step up) so that in September and hopefully beyond those guys aren't toast.  We rightfully critiqued Moliter last year for overworking the top guys in the bullpen by bringing them in to every slightly high leverage situation.  You can't do that and expect those guys' arms to hold up late in the season.  So he has to gamble with the weaker back end of the pen from time to time.  I'd argue being up 7-2, even against Houston, when Rogers and Hildy were used heavily the prior two days, is exactly that kind of situation.

     

    But isn't that exactly the point?  He has to "get away with one here" fairly frequently so that he doesn't overwork Rogers, Hildy (and hopefully at least two other relievers that are added or promoted or that step up) so that in September and hopefully beyond those guys aren't toast.  We rightfully critiqued Moliter last year for overworking the top guys in the bullpen by bringing them in to every slightly high leverage situation.  You can't do that and expect those guys' arms to hold up late in the season.  So he has to gamble with the weaker back end of the pen from time to time.  I'd argue being up 7-2, even against Houston, when Rogers and Hildy were used heavily the prior two days, is exactly that kind of situation.

     

    You are forgetting option #1: Leave Odorizzi in there a bit longer. He was pulled with 2 outs and 1 person on base and a five run lead.

     

    I kind of feel like option #1 is the absolute best way to preserve the bullpen, hands down. Don't you?

     

    Yes Harper has been underworked compared to the rest of the bullpen and he needed to eat up an inning at some point. Baldelli chose the wrong moment. Ordorizzi could have finished the inning he was in and started the next.

    Edited by Doomtints

    I’d be ok with leaving Odorizzi in if his pitch count was lower. If I remember correctly, he was pulled at exactly 100 pitches for May. At that point it’s a question of having Odorizzi pitch more than Baldelli is likely comfortable with or going to the pen. Having our starting pitchers pitch 120 pitches as a means to lessen the bullpen load likely isn’t sustainable either.

     

    Bottom line is the team needs bullpen reinforcement or guys to step up, or we’re going to have these let’s hope the bullpen survives games on a fairly frequent basis.

     

    You are forgetting option #1: Leave Odorizzi in there a bit longer. He was pulled with 2 outs and 1 person on base and a five run lead.

     

    I kind of feel like option #1 is the absolute best way to preserve the bullpen, hands down. Don't you?

     

    Yes Harper has been underworked compared to the rest of the bullpen and he needed to eat up an inning at some point. Baldelli chose the wrong moment. Ordorizzi could have finished the inning he was in and started the next

     

     

     

    I’d be ok with leaving Odorizzi in if his pitch count was lower. If I remember correctly, he was pulled at exactly 100 pitches for May. At that point it’s a question of having Odorizzi pitch more than Baldelli is likely comfortable with or going to the pen. Having our starting pitchers pitch 120 pitches as a means to lessen the bullpen load likely isn’t sustainable either.

     

    Bottom line is the team needs bullpen reinforcement or guys to step up, or we’re going to have these let’s hope the bullpen survives games on a fairly frequent basis.

     

    You are forgetting option #1: Leave Odorizzi in there a bit longer. He was pulled with 2 outs and 1 person on base and a five run lead.

     

    I kind of feel like option #1 is the absolute best way to preserve the bullpen, hands down. Don't you?

     

    Yes Harper has been underworked compared to the rest of the bullpen and he needed to eat up an inning at some point. Baldelli chose the wrong moment. Ordorizzi could have finished the inning he was in and started the next.

    Assuming Odorizzi wasn't gassed, sure. But we don't know that, Baldelli does. He was at 100 pitches when he came out. No sense in prolonging an inning at that point and possibly allowing the Astros to put up a crooked number. 

     

    With Odorizzi's tendency to struggle through a lineup a third time, I don't have an issue with him getting pulled there. In that ballpark, runs can be scored in a hurry and Houston has a pretty potent offense. No sense allowing Odorizzi to put another guy on or give up a HR. Limit the damage, put out the fire before it gets too hot.

    I think this point is getting overlooked a bit so far this season. At least as it pertains to the position players. I think Rocco is doing a good job of getting everyone pretty regular playing time, especially considering the odd scheduling so far. Hopefully when the schedule normalizes he doesn't continue with the hockey line change approach, but I do like that he's getting guys AB's with regularity. That should pay dividends when the inevitable injury bug starts biting.

     

    It does help that the bench players are able to play multiple positions. That hasn't been the case in recent seasons, but I think Rocco is doing pretty well with what he's got.

    25 guys who can play and a manager who trusts all 25 is what I’ve been asking for since Logan Morrison. I would have no problem with this continuing all season long.

     

    Next step... cull the struggling herd. If members of the bullpen don’t improve... replace them and try someone else.

     

    25 guys who can play and a manager who trusts all 25 is what I’ve been asking for since Logan Morrison. I would have no problem with this continuing all season long.

    Next step... cull the struggling herd. If members of the bullpen don’t improve... replace them and try someone else.

    When the reinforcements start arriving Harper will be sent down. How long do you wait before you consider DFA May and/or Mejia?

    Edited by howieramone2

     

    Assuming Odorizzi wasn't gassed, sure. But we don't know that, Baldelli does. He was at 100 pitches when he came out. No sense in prolonging an inning at that point and possibly allowing the Astros to put up a crooked number. 

     

    With Odorizzi's tendency to struggle through a lineup a third time, I don't have an issue with him getting pulled there. In that ballpark, runs can be scored in a hurry and Houston has a pretty potent offense. No sense allowing Odorizzi to put another guy on or give up a HR. Limit the damage, put out the fire before it gets too hot.

     

    He wasn't gassed. He was pulled at exactly 100 pitches. That's why he was pulled, no other reason.

     

    You know who was gassed? Harper, who was forced to pitch through his ineffectiveness.

     

    Who allowed more runs in this game, Odorizzi or Harper?

    Edited by Doomtints

     

    He wasn't gassed. He was pulled at exactly 100 pitches. That's why he was pulled, no other reason.

     

    You know who was gassed? Harper, who was forced to pitch through his ineffectiveness.

     

    Who allowed more runs in this game, Odorizzi or Harper?

    Harper hadn't pitched since Thursday. He may very well have been gassed, but neither of us know that. Nor do we know that about Odorizzi. We're not in the dugout and we're neither Rocco or the players involved. 

     

    Not really sure what Harper has to do with the conversation. May came in to relieve Odorizzi and got out of the inning without further damage. Odorizzi had already given up a HR that inning. Harper started his own inning and got into his own mess. Are you insinuating that Odorizzi should have finished the 6th and gone out again for the 7th?

    Barring injury this team only gets better as the season progresses. We should actually have two more wins than we do solely based on poor managing (which is expected early on in Rocco's tenure).

     

    Get ready for a run people. After what we've been through the last 8 years or so, this is going to be fun.

    This will be a good lineup. Maybe even great.

    But they won't be the best lineup in the history of baseball, which is where they are currently on pace to be.

     

    Where are they going to make up that inevitable regression?

    Regression is possible, but this is a much deeper lineup than the Twins have had for years.  Losing streaks will happen, just hopefully not too many or too long.  This Offense can put up big numbers on a regular basis, so should be interesting.  I believe if the Twins are playing well in midseason they will add some pitching help.

    When the reinforcements start arriving Harper will be sent down. How long do you wait before you consider DFA May and/or Mejia?

    That would depend on many factors. The peripherals, is the issue fixable and how many struggling arms are you needing to absorb poor performance from at the time of having to make a decision.

     

    You can slow down usage and control leverage with one guy for some rope to turn it around. Two guys can be handled but it’s obviously more taxing depending on the length of both players struggling. 3 guys and you need to start making hard decisions and make those decisions quickly.

     

    Bottom line: We should never allow a struggling player the opportunity to drag the team down by forcing poor performance into the collective output.

    Regression is possible, but this is a much deeper lineup than the Twins have had for years. Losing streaks will happen, just hopefully not too many or too long. This Offense can put up big numbers on a regular basis, so should be interesting. I believe if the Twins are playing well in midseason they will add some pitching help.

    Saying regression is "possible" means you think it's also possible that they'll be the best lineup TO EVER PLAY, IN THE HISTORY OF MLB.

    If that's your opinion, that's great, but that's going on an extremely narrow limb.

     

    Edit: I agree they should be a competitive team.

    I was responding to a poster saying they'll only get better as the season goes on. To which I'm curious where he sees enough improvement to not only makeup for the inevitable regression from the offense, but to actually get better overall.

    Edited by Mr. Brooks



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