Milone Making His Case, But Not Making Excuses

I don't even know how to handicap this race for the 5th starter spot. Milone, Pelfrey, May and Meyer have all pitched well so far this spring.  Everything being equal, probably an edge to experience. Should be an interesting final couple weeks.

 

I definitely am a big believer in track record, and Milone certainly has that. We all like velocity and strikeouts, but there have been a lot of guys in this game's history that have succeeded without those things.

I am more a believer in stuff.   A good curve ball and good change up with great control and a mediocre fastball can play better than a good fastball with mediocre curveball, change up and control.    Of course having all good is preferred but not too many Johann Santana's walking around.    There was a piece on here earlier saying  Milone's fastball has been on a downward trend in velocity.    The more the gap decreases between his fastball and changeup the less confidence I have in him.   Seth,  are there any reports on him gaining a little velocity back?   I know its early but that seems to be a pretty big factor.

The Twins have demonstrated a huge bias for "veterans" instead of rookies. Given the people, the contracts, the past four years, and "rumblings" there is little reason to believe the #5 starter won't be either Milone or Pelfrey. I have yet to ever hear/read any regret by Twins' management about acquiring a "value vet", beginning the season with him as a regular, and then watching him disappoint. I certainly don't think I'll read any regret in 2015 either. They will just insert the "replacement" and bite-their-toungue.

At first they only go a couple of innings, as they are on pitch counts, and still are.  Yesterday Milone threw 60, and May 45.  Next time Milone will go to 75 and May to 60.  May is one outing behind Milone now. 

 

Not much of a day off for those two yesterday, and I thought Perkins would throw too.  No sign of him.  Maybe today in the games at the minor league end.

It only means that there were too many starting pitchers playing games that first week and only pitching 2-3 innings and everyone needed to get in some regular work that that's just how it worked out. Even going forward it might not mean that much until starters are consistently going 4-5 innings. Then we'll see.

Last year I was right in my prediction with Gibson. This year I just really have no idea. Before games were starting I would've given May the best shot but I really think it could go a number of directions. But I'm preparing myself for May and Meyer starting in AAA, and that makes me a little frustrated. Something has to give (ie a trade).

I would bet it's Milone. It's a little harder to predict since the regime change, but since TR still makes the final decision I can't see it going another way. Your post gave me an idea for a new site: Frustrated Twins Daily Fans. (FTDF). It's following is sure to grow as the season progresses. .

I'm really not too concerned about any of this.    It really is just a matter of patience.   I want May but I will be frustrated if May and Meyer are throwing sub 3 ERA in AAA  and any  of the starters are above 5 in June.     If May and Meyer do there part they will force the issue if any of the rotation falters.   If the rotation all perform well that is a good thing and that is when tough decisions will need to be made.

 

So if they don't force the issue, we never see them? 

 

Some times the issue has to be force upon the youngsters, plenty don't show their full potential until they get to the highest level.

Define plenty.    Since 2010 we have an almost completely turned over roster during which period we were promoting lots of guys that we forced the issue upon and most failed.    Even those that you speak of that did succeed probably would have forced the issue soon enough.   Success in the minors is still the best indicator.    May forced the issue last year but unfortunately got hurt.   I thought Meyer did as well and he is the ONLY example I know of in the past 4 years of a guy maybe earning a promotion that did not get it.   Mostly its been guys getting promoted without forcing the issue in the minors.    I much prefer it the other way around.    I wish Nolasco didn't have a secure spot and if Milone gets the nod it won't be all that secure.    Meyer doesn't have to improve all that much over last year to get the nod if those guys are not pitching well.  I am quite comfortable with either May or Meyer.   If everyone pitches well then that means we have a good rotation with valuable pieces to promote or trade. 

 

Two of those "vets" had already failed and been demoted the year prior. The third "vet" had never pitched a full MLB season before. (Actually neither Diamond nor Deduno had a full MLB season under their belt. Only Worley did in that group, and it was one injury-shortened season.)

If you think that is a great example of the team trusting an inexperienced talent over an established vet, I believe you are mistaken.

 

Have they passed on an inexperienced talent with talent though? And in favor of a vet of lesser talent? Gibson, May, and Meyer are the first real talents I've seen around these parts in awhile. The last inexperienced talents we had before them had names like Walters, Hernandez, and DeVries.

 

That said, I do agree they tend to distrust young pitchers to perform with any level of consistency. But it's not like Milone is talent-free. He may win the job because he should. Now Correia, that's a different story..

 

 

Brian Dozier? Trevor Plouffe? Eduardo Escobar? 

 

The team regularly thrusts position players who have blase or lackluster minor league results into MLB roles.  They don't do the same with the starting pitchers, and frankly, I don't think May and Meyer had lackluster minor league results. 

 

They don't seem to afford starting pitching prospects the same opportunities to work out their flaws at the MLB level that they do to position prospects.  This might be due to the fact that they have had such an awful track record with young pitching the last decade, but I think an over-cautiousness is doing everyone a disservice.  Afterall, a position player is much more likely to be a useful player into his mid-30's.  In an era where signing free agents arms to multi-year deals is a fool's errand, you have to get all the pitches out of your young guys that you can before they become a liability.  I don't know why minor league innings are any less of a concern for wear and tear on a pitcher than major league innings.  From a logistiacl standpoint, pitchers should be called up before hitters.  Lots of clubs seem to be figuring this out recently.

Exactly! Push the successful pitchers through the organization--until they stall. Utilize the options on pitchers moving them up and down from the major league, not waste them on aguy who will spend the entire season in the minors. If a pitcher burns-through his options, and doesn't "make it'--so be it! Promote the next candidate or rent a free agent.

 

 

Well, one substantial difference here is that a starting pitcher that struggles means you lose the game.  A position player that struggles may not influence the outcome of the game.