Make It Official! Twins 8, Marlins 3: Not Dead Yet

Box Score
SP: Simeon Woods Richardson - 1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 2 K ( 36 pitches, 23 strikes (64% Strikes)
Home Runs: Byron Buxton (18), 
Top 3 WPA: Trevor Larnach .238, Carlos Correa .151, Christian Vazquez .144 

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Desperation Mode Turns Desperate Early
The Twins entered Wednesday night's matchup versus the Miami Marlins with no margin for error. After dropping the opening game of the series to the 99 loss Miami squad, the Twins dropped to two games behind both Detroit and Kansas City for the final Wild Card slot. Any realistic chance at reclaiming the spot that was mostly theirs throughout the season required a win on Wednesday, and the man on the hill to do his part was Simeon Woods Richardson. Before the game, Simeon discussed the importance of throwing strikes, and getting his team off the field. What followed was another example of the absolute collapse that has made the Twins fanbase turn desperate.

On a 2-1 count, lead-off man Xavier Edwards laced a single to right. Woods Richardson followed that with a four pitch walk to Connor Norby. Struggling slugger Jake Burger came up next, and then the ball went up...and out. 3-0 Marlins and still nobody out. Jesus Sanchez ripped another single, and Jonah Bride did him one better with a double to the gap in left center. Luckily Byron Buxton was able to cut off the ball before Sanchez could head for home, but the Marlins still had runners at second and third with no one out, and most watching the game doubted that Buxton's effort would matter. Cue the bullpen, as Louie Varland started to listen far earlier than anyone hoped for.

With a velocity hovering around 93 mph all season, Woods Richardson hovered around 90 mph in the first inning. His offspeed work mixed in well over the next two batters, however, and two Marlins strike outs led to a chance to escape the jam. In a desperate situation, it was the Twins' righty who rose to the occasion to induce a flyout to leave the runners in place. 3-0 is bad, but it could have been a whole lot worse.

Can the Twins Score?
Edward Cabrera brought a "live" arm and a 5.12 ERA into tonights game. The Twins countered with Edouard Julien in the top spot, with Carlos Correa and Trevor Larnach to follow. 10 pitches later, the Marlins were back in the dugout after two strike outs and a weak ground ball to first base. And that, my friends, is how a team gets a 78% expected win probability in only the first inning. 

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Bullpen Game Begins in the Second
Woods Richardson's velocity and location woes continued in the top of the second, surrendering a chopper up the middle to Jhonny Pereda that Brooks Lee couldn't make the throw to get the out at first. Edwards laced the first pitch to the outfield to once again put runners on second and first with nobody out. This was all that Rocco Baldelli could handle, and Varland came into the game to do what his Twins bullpen mates have struggled to do all summer: strand inherited runners.

Varland and his 98 mph velocity was up to the challenge though, and he struck out the next three batters to give the Twins offense another chance to creep back into this game early.  Cabrera took out Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, and Carlos Santana in 17 pitches this time around, and the expected Marlin win percentage ticked up to 80%. 

Varland kept dealing through traffic, and escaped the top of the third without surrendering more runs. Willi Castro, the last person to hit a home run in the September dinger drought, led off the bottom of the frame with a blast to the wall in deep left-center that bounced off a Marlin for a leadoff double. Lee was unable to advance Castro, and Christian Vazquez followed with an "oh no" dribbler to the pitcher which caught Castro off base. However, perhaps in the season-saving break that the club has been so desperate to find in the past month,  Cabrera went to throw to his short stop and found Castro's inner thigh instead. (Seriously, you can't make this stuff up!) First and second, with nobody out. Julien advanced Castro on a fielder's choice, and suddenly Correa was up as the tying run with two outs. Correa took a close pitch for a full-count walk, and Larnach didn't waste any time cutting that predicted win percentage back down to size, and score into a one-run game.

No Margin for Error
With the Tigers and Royals solidly on their way towards wins on Wednesday night, the Twins had to find a way to keep the Marlins off the board, and to follow up with consistent at-bats of their own. Jorge Alcala returned to the team in the Matt Wallner injury shuffle, and he cleaned up Varland's inherited runner in the top of the fourth. In the bottom of the fourth, Buxton decided a ride on the Buck Truck was far past due.

Where do we Go from Here?
With the game knotted at 3-3, the advantage switched to the home team at 55%, but could the bullpen continue to hold serve against a Marlins squad with nothing to lose other than potentially their 100th game? Through the fifth and sixth innings, the answer was a resounding "Yes!" Could the Twins bats do some damage against the Marlins bullpen. The answer was "sort of." The Marlins bungled themselves into a bases loaded situation with only one out in the bottom of the fifth, with two errors and a Larnach rope single that was hit to hard to score Austin Martin from second. Lewis came up to bat, and delivered what Correa thought was a two-run line drive single to left. Unfortunately for the Twins, and for Correa who was caught running full speed off of second base in an attempt to score, the ball was caught and Correa was doubled-off to prevent Austin's tag-up for the go-ahead run to count. In the bottom of the sixth inning, Buxton ripped a single, only to be doubled-off on a 108 mph line out by Santana to the second baseman.

The Twins bullpen kept on rolling with light traffic, and the Twins kept invited the Marlins to play defense. Lee started the bottom of the seventh with a blast to deep right field that Jesus Sanchez couldn't come up with for a double. Vazquez tried valiantly to bunt, for a while, and eventually succeeded. Reliever Declan Cronin picked up the ball, and provided the Twins the 4th Marlin error of the game by chucking the ball towards the stands instead of the first baseman. Manuel Margot (pinch running for Lee) scored easily, and the Twins were finally in the lead against the Marlins at 4-3. Martin got caught looking, for good reason, at what should have been ball one after failing to lay down a bunt himself.

This brought up the other All-Star, and Correa reminded Twins Territory what they've been missing! A curving double to the right field corner plated Vazquez, and suddenly it was 5-3. Add an intentional walk, and a normal walk, and Cronin found himself with the bases loaded, one out, and the Buck Truck at the plate. The Buck Truck stalled out, and it looked like another threat to put away a game would end on the bat of veteran slugger Santana. What happened next gives Twins fans hope for one...more...day.

With the score now 8-3 Twins, and the squad reaching a 98.5% win probability, the Twins kept the urgency up and sent in the defensive replacements took the field. Griffin Jax even stayed in for his second inning of work and after he successfully retired the first batter, Jhoan Duran got the call to finish the eighth. Justin Topa made his Twins 2024 debut in the ninth, and he had no trouble ending the night 1-2-3 to close out the Twins' first major win of this desperation week.

What’s Next? 
The Twins once again look to gain some ground in the playoff race with a win and some help from the Rays and the Nationals. The Twins send out rookie (and potential Game 1 starter if they do somehow miraculously make the playoffs) RHP David Festa (2-6, 4.80 ERA). Meanwhile the Marlins send out fellow rookie RHP Valente Bellozo (3-4, 3.82 ERA) in hopes of playing spoiler. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm CT.

Postgame Interviews

Bullpen Usage Sheet