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It’s hard to really pick at Lewis Thorpe’s performance on the season. In fact, his performance so far isn’t the issue at all. He has a 3.86 ERA and 4.22 FIP which is much better than most of the current rotation. His SIERA, Skill Interactive ERA however tells a much different story. SIERA is more predictive than most ERA indicators and puts Thorpe at a 5.44 mark, over a run and a half higher than his current ERA.
If you’ve watched Thorpe’s handful of starts then you know exactly what the issue is. For the 2nd straight season, Thorpe is averaging under 90 mph on the fastball. In fact, Thorpe’s average fastball is actually .2 mph less than his disaster 2020 season. He was averaging a perfectly acceptable 91.2 mph as recently as 2019 where he looked like a future rotation piece.
I give Thorpe all the credit in the world for performing as well as he has with what little velocity he’s had to work with. That being said, there are very few starting pitchers who can put up consistent performances with an average fastball under 90 mph. Those that do are arms like Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies, etc. All command specialists with devastating offspeed pitches. Thorpe just simply doesn’t fall into that bucket of pitcher.
The frustrating thing is that Thorpe possesses the ability to ramp up his fastball somewhere in there. Spring performances don’t mean much, but after an encouraging offseason he looked like a stud as he pumped 92-93 mph. So where has that fastball gone and what can the Twins do?
After one of his recent starts, Thorpe mentioned that he’s been struggling with some “dead arm”, a malady all pitchers suffer through where they just don’t have their top notch arm strength. Dead arm however typically lasts a week or two and it’s looking increasingly like Thorpe just doesn’t have a fastball that can run into the low 90s for multiple innings. That’s exactly why the Twins should try Lewis Thorpe in the bullpen.
In shorter stints Thorpe’s fastball could easily play up 2-3 mph which isn’t uncommon when starters transition to the bullpen. He has a pitch mix to face hitters from both sides with his slider and changeup, both of which would play off of a fastball with more velocity. Especially now that Thorpe seems to be around the strike zone more, it’s easy to imagine him finding success. It may also give him a more clearcut route to a spot on the MLB roster next year when he’s out of options.
In addition to Thorpe’s benefit there are a few other factors to consider. The Twins now have two other starters that can fill that spot start role in Dobnak and Ober. I also think they’ll heavily shop Taylor Rogers on the trade market given the return they could find for him and the near $7m he’s due to make in 2022. The Twins will have an opening for another lefty in the bullpen and Thorpe may be just the guy to fill that role from within.
Some may see a move to the bullpen as giving up on Lewis Thorpe. It may be giving up on him as a starter, but it’s incredibly hard to overlook the velocity issues. I personally think it’s giving Thorpe an opportunity. Plenty of openings in the bullpen are coming and the probability of Thorpe sticking there looks to be much higher than the rotation at this point.
Not every starting pitching prospect finds themselves toeing the rubber every 5th day at the Major League level but I think Thorpe has a chance to follow a path similar to players such as Tyler Duffey and Taylor Rogers. The Twins have put themselves in a position where they can try some new things. In regards to Lewis Thorpe, I think it’s time to start experimenting.
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