Here's How to Make Room for Alex Kirilloff

It sucks for everyone when prospects get called up late. They hit free agency in their thirties when in a lot of cases, their performance is already starting to diminish. They get paid less, and there is also less to enjoy in the fan experience when all you see of a guy’s peak career is his late twenties.

Michael Cuddyer is a good example, as he did not become a full-time player until his age-27 season and his defense was atrocious by the time he hit free agency. You especially want to give a young player runway at a young age if they have any chance to be a transcendent talent, and Alex Kirilloff’s hitting ability has been described as such. That said, he is 25 and the sheen over him owes a lot to what is unknown about him. 

Trevor Larnach is a good counterpoint. He’s generally been playing well but we’ve seen the ups and downs of what he can do as a hitter. Pitchers have increasingly attacked him with offspeed and breaking pitches and he has had to make adjustments (though hadn’t he made that adjustment at the start of 2022?). The main point is, if Larnach can hit breaking stuff he will be a good to great hitter in the big leagues.

For Kirilloff, we don’t even know what adjustments he will have to make to reach his uncertain, but probably high, ceiling. Does anyone remember how pitchers attack him? What bad hitting habits does he fall into when he’s healthy? Is he more of a .270/.310/.450 hitter due to an overly aggressive hitting approach? We have no idea.

We have to find out. It’s too far into his career. As soon as he gets through a couple back-to-backs in Triple A, get him up here and get him in the lineup five times a week. That will require some lineup and defensive shuffling. With Byron Buxton continuing to require the DH slot, that means Joey Gallo needs to play center field.

This isn’t conventional, and would result in worse defense in center, at least until Buxton returns to center field. It also would mean fewer at-bats, at least against righties, for Michael A. Taylor, who has been somewhat of a spark plug at the bottom of the lineup while contributing excellent center field defense. But Gallo hasn’t rated badly in center field in his career (zero outs above average, or OAA, in 58 career games), and Larnach deserves to continue his chance to prove himself.

There are some strong opinions about what the Twins should do with their other starting outfielder, but cutting bait with Max Kepler right now would be incredibly unwise, for a couple reasons. One, Kepler is kind of hitting, especially since returning from his IL stint earlier in the month. His slugging percentage is up to .483 on the year after a two-hit showing in Saturday’s loss to the Royals.

Second, the decline in defense going from Kepler to Gallo isn’t major, but it is significant. Kepler is one of the smoothest right fielders in Twins history, while Gallo is just really good. In terms of OAA, Kepler has been nineteen runs above average the past two years, while Gallo has been fairly neutral, albeit with a better throwing arm.

Third, Kepler was kind of hitting last year before his toe injury. His line on June 1st was .260/.365/.440, and while it dipped before the injury occurred, his OPS was still above league average before he went on to post a .466 OPS while playing through a broken toe in August and September. If he’s a league-average hitter, that’s a three WAR player when you factor in his defense. With his club option for 2024, Kepler is basically under contract for two years, 18.5M. That is a tremendously valuable player, if even relatively healthy.

The downside to letting Kepler keep starting in right field against righties would be if he gets hurt or falls off even further in performance. But if either of those things happen, the solution would be to install Taylor or Buxton back in center, and move Gallo to right. Problem solved. A much worse scenario would be to give up on Kepler and then see Kirilloff get hurt or not perform, resulting in a lot more Donovan Solano at first base.

So let’s make it happen. Put Gallo in the middle of the field. It would be unfortunate for Michael A. Taylor, and a few more balls might fall in the gaps, but if Kepler, Gallo, and Larnach are going to remain among your top five or six hitters, you need to find a way to keep them in the lineup against righties. Moving Gallo to center also allows the team to gather the data they need to determine what Kirilloff (and Larnach) are going to be for them in this competitive window. Are they foundational pieces, platoon guys or trade bait?

Of course injuries could solve every roster crunch the Twins face and then some. But while it's important to build depth in case of injury, it's also important to find out what kind of players you have. Fortunately for the Twins, the Texas Rangers found out Gallo could play center while trying to work in at-bats for Willie Calhoun and Nomar Mazara in 2019. Hopefully, every one of the Twins' young hitters end up with better careers than those one-tool journeymen, but there’s only one way to find out, and it could turn this team into an offensive juggernaut.