Craig Kimbrel and Risk Tolerance

Right, we've seen how guys that were late to sign and missed ST really struggled.  (See: Alex Cobb, Lance Lynn, etc)

It's reasonable to assume that Kimbrel may be late in the summer, if at all, that he is an effective reliever.  If you value 2019, it's possible we're better off trading for that help. 

I don't know how reasonable this assumption is. Time seems to be proving that Cobb and Lynn were fully capable of producing those performances on their own, regardless of their late starts.

I'm open to the possibility, but there doesn't seem to be enough data to support any assumptions better than a guess.

Um, it couldn't be more "reasonable".  All baseball teams ask their pitchers and catchers to report a month or more in advance of the season.  Why?  Because baseball players, especially pitchers, need repetition to prepare their arms.  Kimbrel may have been doing things on the side but that isn't the same thing.

What limited data we have suggests that it is a challenge for players to come back from.  Is it conclusive?  Of course not, hence the words "possible" and "could".  But the idea that a pitcher might struggle to come back right away after missing all of ST and two and a half months of the season is about as reasonable an assumption as one could hold methinks.  (And that is to say nothing - NOTHING - about the wisdom of signing him.  Just to have due skepticism about his impact this year.  Had we signed Kimbrel, which I wanted, I'd have still wanted another reliever and starter.  Same thing I want now)

I think is a very salient point, regardless of how anyone feels about the Kimbrel situation. Like it or not, this FO is still quite new and an arguement could be made from drafting, FA, trades, new manager and coaches from the top down, that they are really only fully implementing all their ideas, observations and plans for what is now their second full year. Like him or not, one thing Terry Ryan did well was find some pretty good options for the bullpen over the years. Some guys were decent arms known, some were converted starters, some came out of nowhere. We don't really have a track history, as of yet, how this FO sees building a successful pen.

IMO, there was hope and belief Romero, Mejia and Reed could provide at least one viable option to go along with what they had, with maybe a surprise or two. To say the least, it hasn't worked out that way as of yet. Time for plan B. But Brian's example of how the Dodgers built their pen is worth noting. Also, as someone posted before the season began, the Padres built quite a pen last year much the same way.

I find it very interesting that in his few innings when up, Littell looked much more comfortable than last season and threw harder than before. (Duffey as well thus far). And since his return to Rochester, Littell has been used exclusively out of the pen. While a big move hasnt happened yet, the FO IS looking for options, just internally at this point.

Also going to suck-up to Brian again, LOL, in his opinion on usage of the arms on hand. I have largely applauded Rocco's usage of his pen. For the most part, I think he's done a fine job. And in a 7 or 8 man pen, all pitchers are NOT created equal. But if a guy is going to be rostered, then USE HIM. They've done a pretty good job of playing the option/roster game to roll through guys and keep fresh arms and offer auditions. And to some degree, the coaching staff is still learning about some of these guys.

But the next couple of weeks are critical. With such a talented and mostly young ML roster, and one of the deepest systems around, you can afford to trade away 4-6 quality prospects in the top 10-30 to bring in a quality RP or two come July 1st. Be aggressive and strike early. Use the next few weeks to further evaluate what you have on hand at the ML and AAA level, and then cut where you believe it's smart to do so. Take some time to evaluate/audition, and then be aggressive. Smart, but aggressive.

And as the second half of the season unfolds and Romero, Mejia, Littell, etc, prove their ready, just more depth and icing on the cake.

The bullpen needs to be attacked in the same fashion as the position players on our current roster. Find out who your guys will be and you can only find that through opportunity. Every member of the bullpen must be trusted... if you don't trust them and therefore don't use them as a result. Cut them, demote them and move on in search of a guy that you will trust and use. Rinse and repeat until you got a pen that is worthy of winning us a world series. 

This isn't as simple as trading for Ken Giles, Will Smith and Brad Hand, declaring your work done for the year and just letting it buck the rest of the way. We don't know who will be healthy and ready come playoff time October. Circumstances change all the time in baseball. Players get hurt or get the case of the struggles. 

You trade for Giles and you cut Magill to make room. You sign Will Smith and you cut Morin to make room... You trade for Hand and send Duffey down to AAA. The Twinsdaily forum posters will applaud and be very excited about the upgrades and I will join you all in the celebration because we need to acquire arms. but... sometime after the acquisitions... we can expect injury, poor performance or something. It happens all the time. 

Chalk it up to bad luck is the easy answer but that answer is a cop out. Trade for all 3... I encourage it but ignoring your depth is an excuse that I will pin right back on the management team if they try to use injury as an excuse. 

Bullpens are built by providing opportunity. Depth is important on the mound just like it's important on offense and defense.

We are looking at a largely untested bullpen right now. The starting rotation has been primarily carrying the water. Look how quickly things changed for the Indians... Kluber hurt, Carrasco Hurt, Clevinger Hurt, Bauer struggling all of a sudden. Now imagine if our Twins went through something similar to that in the coming months.

Chalk it up to bad luck, is the quick and easy answer as you just lay down and die. However, we just got done watching the Brewers, get by without a rotation by relying on the bullpen in the playoffs last year. We watched the Rays and A's do it last year. The team doesn't have to lay down and die. It can still compete if they get bullpen serious... right now. I'm not saying it's ideal but it isn't a death sentence unless you let it be one. 

You are right Doc... Terry Ryan found some good options over the years and he found almost all of them on the scrap heap... In my opinion, the reason he was seemingly good at finding cheap help was because he seemed to settle for scrap heap finds as a bullpen staffing philosophy and therefore provided them opportunity to become a good option by not pursuing better options and it worked out a good portion of the time. But again... Opportunity was the key component of finding them. 

We need to pursue all options and never stop searching for a bullpen full of talent. Pursue the top of the line, while simultaneously testing our in house options whenever we can. To do this... you need to expose them all to the opportunity. 25 players who can play is the only way to do it. 

We are all watching the offense do this right now. We lose Cruz and Garver and keep on... keeping on. They all take an occasional day off so others can play and we keep on... keeping on. 

We need depth and this is how you find and develop depth... You play it.  

 

He might not be an effective reliever in 2019, but if it turns out that way I'd guess it's more of a talent/skill issue than a late start one. (Although declining talent/skill may have contributed to why he had a late start too -- a bit of a "chicken or the egg" situation!)

It may be hard to differentiate the two.  Players that start this late in the year are typically coming back from injury.  I admit, I have no data on this, but it sure seems like those players are typically not their best the rest of the season.  Now, that could be injury, it could be rust, it could be both.  

I'm simply saying there is a far higher degree of likelihood that a reliever we trade for is going to be what we expect in 2019.  Kimbrel could be something of a wildcard.  (Again, a wildcard I wanted.  The downside is there, but so is the upside)

While I agree the risk is being overblown a bit by some posters, there's always risk in putting more than 10% of your payroll into a single reliever. The opportunity cost of money going to one player and not another always carries risk with it. Perhaps the riskiest of all investments is relief pitching, which ups the stakes in this particular situation.

 

But overall, again, I'm mildly disappointed that the Twins didn't get Kimbrel and time will tell us whether they were right to back off a third year.

That last sentence is key. Sometimes people think that if we voice displeasure at a decision, that we think it is awful/evil/the end. Mostly it's mild disappointment.

Neither are saves or holds. It's hard to blow huge leads even for the worst bullpens. 

 

 The bullpen has thrown the 2nd fewest innings in baseball thanks to a slow schedule to start the season and some deep games by the starting staff. Until recently they hadn't been taxed at all. With Perez looking like the guy we thought he was, Gibson once again struggling to find consistency, and Pineda being a 5ish inning guy, the warts that were largely ignored have become much more apparent.

 

Mostly i see people chomping at the bit to beat their personal dead horse. The bullpen performed well in April and May.

Ive said all along that they need more bullpen help. However, my belief in that isnt grounds to play pretend about their performance so far. That kind of nonsense is how obnoxious threads start.

 

I agree, the bullpen held together nicely the first couple months, but I also think the numbers are a bit deceiving. Bank the performance thus far, just don't expect those numbers to continue or improve. 

We agree completely.