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Outlook for the 2016 Rotation
The Twins had plenty of solid depth in their starting corps this season, with five different starters making 15-plus starts and posting an ERA that was close to or slightly above average.
What was lacking, however, was a true standout No. 1. Kyle Gibson earned that billing by default, as he led the way in innings and ERA, but his ERA ranked 48th among big-league starters and his K-rate ranked 60th. A match-up between Gibson and someone like David Price, Cole Hamels or Dallas Keuchel in a Game 1 postseason tilt would have been tragically lopsided.
So as the Twins try to solidify themselves as true contenders this offseason, the search for that top-tier arm to lead the rotation is a primary consideration, and one that we cover extensively in the upcoming Offseason Handbook (now available for preorder!).
Before we dig into the topic here, let's ask ourselves a question:
Does An Ace Really Matter That Much?
It seems inherently obvious. Many teams have ridden their horse to October glory, with last year's Giants and Madison Bumgarner serving as a prime example.
But having that premier starter at the front of your rotation doesn't come close to guaranteeing anything. This year, we saw the Royals ship out some great young talent to acquire Johnny Cueto from the Reds at the deadline, only to watch the righty post a 5.27 ERA in 16 starts between the regular season and postseason.
Cueto was pretty much the definition of an ace starter when Kansas City acquired him. He'd been Cincinnati's No. 1 for years, had pitched in big postseason games, and had the second-lowest ERA among all MLB starters since 2011, trailing only the inimitable Clayton Kershaw. Yet, as the Royals learned, and as the Twins have learned on a smaller scale with Ervin Santana and Ricky Nolasco, you don't always know what you're getting.
Even when a top starter does pitch up to his ability, it's not some magical elixir that assures postseason success. The Twins went to the playoffs four times from 2002 through 2006, and the only time they won a series was when Johan Santana was NOT in the rotation.
Paying The Price
In any case, clearly, having a high-end starter fronting the rotation makes a team better, both in the regular season and playoffs. So what would it cost for the Twins to reel in an elite pitching talent?
The top name on the free agent market is David Price, who could land a record-setting deal coming off a Cy Young caliber season in which he had an enormous impact for the Blue Jays following a deadline trade. It seems safe to assume that the Twins won't go north of $200 million on any contract.
Next in line are names like Zack Greinke, Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, but each is likely to ink a nine-figure contract. That's probably too steep. In fact, almost any lucrative long-term deal for a starter is difficult to fathom when the Twins have committed a total of $170 to Santana, Nolasco and Phil Hughes over the past two offseasons.
Those big commitments to middling veterans are really limiting the Twins' flexibility to make a meaningful plunge into the pitching market. It'd be nice if they could take all those deals back and put that combined sum toward one elite arm, but alas.
Outside of free agency, the avenue for acquiring a big-name starter would be a trade. As the Berrios/Kepler-for-Gray scenario illustrates, going this route would require a painful exodus of high-caliber young talent. Still, it might be worth it. Gray has established himself at a level Berrios can only hope to reach, and will be controlled at a reasonable price for many years. He's only one example, but he's certainly the type of player that Terry Ryan should be targeting if he's willing to pony up with some of his top prospects.
Searching Within
The alternative to all this, of course, is to stand pat and hope that someone emerges from within to provide the Twins with a legitimate No. 1 starter. I see three paths to this outcome that aren't completely unrealistic:
1) Ervin Santana pitches like he did in September for most the season.
When the Twins signed Santana to a franchise-record free agent deal last winter, they were hoping he could become that No. 1 guy for them. He certainly looked the part at times. In his first four starts and last seven starts, he combined to go 7-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That's ace type stuff, for sure. Of course, the problem was that in between those stretches he endured a miserable slump. That's always been the story for Santana: flashes of brilliance amidst consistent inconsistency. There's a reason he has only twice posted an ERA+ higher than 111. It's tough to believe he'll pull it together for a full year, especially as he ages into his mid-30s and surpasses 2,000 innings in career workload.
2) Phil Hughes reverts to 2014 form.
It gets overlooked a bit since the Twins lost 92 games, but Hughes really was an ace-caliber starter in his first season with Minnesota. He set an MLB record for K/BB ratio, his 2.65 FIP was sixth-best in baseball, and he was "quality" in 20 of his 32 starts. This year, Hughes' HR-rate spiked while his strikeouts plummeted, but decreased fastball velocity (attributable to back problems?) appeared to be the main culprit. He did maintain his elite control, proving that 2014 was no fluke in that regard, so if he can regain the zip on his heater and start missing more bats he has a chance to get back to that level. Hughes doesn't turn 30 until next June.
3) Jose Berrios fulfills his promise.
Since he lacks the prototypical frame of a front-end workhorse starter, Berrios' ability to develop into the pitcher that his spectacular minor-league numbers foretell has always been in question. Yet, the kid just continues to dominate older and more experienced competition at every stop. And he's the one pitcher in the mix for the Twins who, in terms of pure stuff, can match up to the top dogs on contending clubs.
Personally, I think the chances of at least one of the three possibilities mentioned above coming to fruition are good enough that I'd forego taking the drastic steps necessary to acquire an established No. 1 starter externally.
How about you?
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