Can The Twins Win With Dozier And Mauer?

You hit the nail on the head.  This discussion shouldn't be about Mauer and Dozier's shortcomings, it should be about the young players on the team.  While Mauer and Dozier are not world beaters at the moment they are are both better across the board this season than Kepler, Buxton and Polanco whom I think we all expected to take big steps forward this year.  With the continued Mauer/Grossman bashing around here....would it surprise many people to know that they both have higher OPS than Kepler does?

Mauer/Grossman are playing positions that have much higher offensive expectations. They're also basically at their respective ceilings for production, whereas Kepler is just getting his career started and has a lot of potential growth ahead of him. I don't see the value in this comparison.

Refresh my memory, who did they try to sign?

Wasn't it Napoli?

Possible not probable. Having cornerstones that are barely league average is not how teams win championships.

"Win with Dozier and Mauer"?  Please define "Win."  82 wins, #2 Wild Card?, A.L. Central Division? The World Series? (or a least get there)?   As we observed the Twins were badly out-classed by LA, HOU, and BOS.  So, it's safe to say "Forget the World Series"--but the others, sure.

This is a common refrain around here but I'm not sure. Polanco is batting .581. Goodrum and Blankenhorn are organizational filler. You could plan for Gordon in 2019, but who takes over SS?

 

And, if the trade price is low for above average second baseman, so would the FA price, methinks. Keeping Dozier for a few years after he hits FA could easily be the best option organizationally and not that expensive.

I'll be pretty disappointed if Gordon isn't in the picture until 2019.

Yes they can, but it is time to quit making the lineup based on their preferences and give them the rest of this season to get used to new roles. This lineup has one big bopper and then a bunch of walks with a black hole when it comes to runners on base.

 

Buxton- see if he can do it for next year.

Kepler- Left handed, takes a few pitches. Let Buck steal if he is on and if he isn't get yourself to 2nd.

Sano- our big masher

Mauer- pitch around Sano and you might walk Mauer also.

Dozier- if he can't get used to it then,,,,,,,,,,,

Rosario

Grossman

Castro- hopefully he doesn't slow up Buxton too often

Polanco

 

I would like to see them give that lineup 30 games to see what happens. In the offseason send Grossman to Tom Kelly to learn 1st base and get a 'real" DH to bat in the middle.

Mauer batting cleanup?  ughhhh.  I'd rather have someone else hitting there that actually has some power and can do something else other than take a walk.

I don't agree with inserting Buxton into the leadoff spot just because it is hoped he will blossom there. How well did having him hit third work?

Buxton needs to be at the bottom of the order until he shows he can consistently hit MLB pitching.

Given the current roster, the two guys who should be at the top of the order are Mauer and Grossman.

and? that has what to do with whether or not Mauer/grossman/dozier are good compared to others at their positions, and completely ignores baserunning and fielding?

 

You win by having players that are better than other teams' players, mostly by comparing positions (because players don't play in a vacuum). 

 

Some people seem to be saying, "if everyone else is great, doesn't matter how good or bad Dozier or Mauer are"....when that's just a bad question and answer that doesn't help build a winning team.

While I would love to have better players at first and DH, Grossman is 6th in the AL in OBP, Mauer is 12th.

Sano is 20th, everybody else is below Dozier who is 54th.

So the problem isn't them it is the development of the outfield and SS. (I do understand they are still young) but adding 2 more guys to the lineup that don't see a ton of pitches and have a low OBP isn't going to make this team better.

If Kepler, Rosario and Sano - end up like Yelich, Ozuna and Stanton and we get two more starters and a bunch of new bullpen arms you can win with Dozier and Mauer no problem

 

Dozier needs to go this winter to clear the middle infielder logjam. I'd rather see what Gordon and Polanco can become rather than trade one of them and keep Dozier for one more year.

 

So having 3 utility infielders, a guy in AA and a no hit slick fielding SS is a logjam, the future is not bright.

correct.

Is Napoli better than Mauer and Grossman this year?

Is Napoli better than Mauer and Grossman this year?

He's 200/282/436 with 22 hrs. Playing mostly first base 69/95 games.

While I would love to have better players at first and DH, Grossman is 6th in the AL in OBP, Mauer is 12th.

Sano is 20th, everybody else is below Dozier who is 54th.

So the problem isn't them it is the development of the outfield and SS. (I do understand they are still young) but adding 2 more guys to the lineup that don't see a ton of pitches and have a low OBP isn't going to make this team better.

OBP is important but for 1B/DH you should look to get more than an on-base machine, especially when those players are regularly hitting in the 3-5 spots. You need a few guys that can drive in runners and not just draw walks and slap singles. Grossman barely has 100 RBI for his career. Mauer and Grossman combined will barely break 15 HR and 100 RBI this season. Who's going to compensate for that? Nobody else on this team projects to be a slugger.

OBP is important but for 1B/DH you should look to get more than an on-base machine, especially when those players are regularly hitting in the 3-5 spots. You need a few guys that can drive in runners and not just draw walks and slap singles. Grossman barely has 100 RBI for his career. Mauer and Grossman combined will barely break 15 HR and 100 RBI this season. Who's going to compensate for that? Nobody else on this team projects to be a slugger.

Don't disagree with what you are saying, but if nobody on this team is going to be that slugger, then we are screwed because our FA money MUST go to pitchers.

It isn't Mauer and Grossman's fault they are hitting in the 3-5 slots.

The outfield we have must greatly improve over the next two years or we will be rebuilding forever.

 My thinking is that getting rid of Dozier gives you a chance to see if Gordon and Polanco can be part of the core for the next 5 years.  Playing Dozier next year, then letting him go as a free agent doesn't help answer the question of whether Gordon and Polanco. And maybe, just maybe, you can get an A longshot for Dozier that would help in the future.

If you are willing to punt next year, that isn't a bad option. Gordon is doing fine in AA .282/.356/.436

But if he isn't close to those and Polanco is anything like this year, your screwed because catcher has been a black hole also and that is a 1/3 or the lineup.

Me personally I make Gordon push the people a head of him out of a job, unless you give him SS and make Polanco force a trade of Dozier.

Some interesting insights from Mauer's batting split data: 

- He far is "more productive" with men on base in terms of OPS, than with bases empty. This surprised me somewhat because he's generally posted pretty meager RBI totals for someone hitting in the middle of the order (side note: I AM NOT a guy who gets too hung up on RBI totals, but they do mean something). However, this "statistically clutch performance" is misleading, as I'll explain. 

- Mauer's walk rate with bases empty or with 1st base occupied is 9.7% (K/BB: 0.73). With men on but first base open: 24.9% (K/BB: 2.31). Pitchers are happy to walk him with guys on base and he's content to take the free base. Though this isn't a bad thing, it's not great either. With guys on 2nd and 3rd especially, a batted ball, a base hit, and a walk are very different things. Quite often, Mauer's at-bats with RISP result in a passing of the baton to the next hitter. But it's also a chicken/egg thing, perhaps he's being walked more because there's been less of a threat hitting behind him. Virtually all of Mauer's additional OPS with guys on base is due to him taking more walks. 

This underscores the problem this lineup has had for quite awhile, aside from Sano, we haven't had a big-time hitter to knock in runners behind Mauer. However, the size of Mauer's contract and his move to first has hindered the team's ability to sign/install that type of hitter. Mauer's walk rate is slightly higher than Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout with runners on (but first base open), but it's close. So his performance isn't too unusual, but the differential is likely larger.  As TD nation has said repeatedly, Mauer is better suited to the #2 hole, but the FO is paying him like a #3 hitter, so that is probably where he will remain.