2022 Twins Top Prospects Ranking

What’s To Like
The same things that made Royce Lewis the 1st overall pick in 2017 are reasons to like him now. The athleticism is off the charts, and makeup has been something that will sell anyone. He’s still got a home at shortstop for now and will play up the middle somewhere regardless. His speed has always been among his greatest assets, and a recent interview suggests he’s gotten even faster.

At the dish, there’s plenty to like about Lewis. He’s got the ability to be a plus hitter who makes plenty of contact. He began to find his power stroke in 2019 and has only gained muscle since then. If everything settles back into where he was the last time we saw him in game action during the Arizona Fall League, he’s going to be an absolute problem for the opposition.

What’s Left To Work On
Refinement is the name of the game for Lewis. He instituted a leg kick into his swing, and timing with it has seen him struggle to have full plate coverage. He’ll need to show that he can get the foot down and drive the baseball to all fields.

There are still questions as to whether Lewis can stick at shortstop in the field. His arm strength shouldn’t be a problem, but instincts and reactions could take him off of the position. Minnesota remains committed to him in the role, and keeping him on the dirt would be a big win for all involved. If he can push away those doubts, that would go a long way to getting him to the highest level more quickly.

What’s Next
Lewis needs to see game action; it’s that simple. He hasn’t played in a professional game since 2019 and was out of action altogether last season. Getting back on the field and showing everyone where he’s at is a must. Depending on how that goes, he could be in line for very quick promotions. Double-A wasn’t a level he mastered at all, but the talent to be above the competition remains.

Minnesota isn’t going to be too aggressive with a guy they need to work out, but his talent could force the organization’s hand. Lewis continues to bet on himself, and doubting him would seem to be a bad stance to take.

What's To Like
Derek Falvey has likely had eyes on Martin for some time. Just months after Falvey claimed Minnesota's top front office job, Cleveland drafted Martin out of high school in the 37th round of the 2017 draft. Of course, he didn't sign. 

Instead, the Florida prep phenom headed to Vanderbilt, where he solidified himself as one of the best young baseball players in the country, dazzling evaluators with his athleticism and stellar plate discipline while putting up monster stats.

Three years later, Martin had emerged as a top draft prospect, viewed by some as a worthy #1 overall pick. He ended up going fifth to Toronto, and instantly became one of the best prospects in the game. The COVID shutdown prevented him from debuting in 2020, but last year Martin went straight to Double-A, where he led the league in on-base percentage (.414).

I can hardly overstate how impressive it is for a first-year pro to lead all of Double-A – a level populated by many of the game's finest prospects –  in the most crucial offensive statistic. Martin blended his keen eye at the plate with his knack for taking an HBP to reach base at a spectacular rate. After coming to the Twins, he reached base via BB or HBP in 20% of his plate appearances.

Meanwhile, he split time between the two most valuable (non-catcher) positions: center field and shortstop. 

He's an elite young talent, ranked as one of the top 50 (or so) prospects in the game by every major outlet. Martin has established a high floor as a contact-hitting OBP machine who brings value in every facet of the game. He's a plus runner, and while the power didn't show up in his first pro season, that is frequently a later tool to materialize. He has all the ingredients to make it happen.

"Making it happen" is exactly what Martin has done up to this point. He brings a tremendous skill set and also that added dimension of "superstar aura," which exuded heavily at Vanderbilt. 

He's electric. He's confident. He's a gamer and a playmaker. You want to see him in big spots.

An All-Star in the making? The Blue Jays seemingly didn't think so.

What's Left To Work On
Just like his immense talent, Martin's question marks and barriers are plain to see. 

First, there is the lack of a clear defensive home. Nobody believes he'll play shortstop in the majors and he's blocked in center field by Byron Buxton. From there, you're looking at different scenarios that diminish his value to varying degrees. 

Will he be a great defensive third baseman? A capable second baseman? A rangy left or right fielder? There's a whole spectrum of potential outcomes and it's hard to put a finger on which is most likely, since the only positions he's played as a pro are two we can feel pretty confident he won't play regularly as a Twin.

Keith Law, who is higher on Martin's overall outlook than most (he has him ranked #25 on his top 100 list for The Athletic), has significant concerns about the 22-year-old's arm. As Law shared in a recent collab article with Aaron Gleeman, "There are two separate issues at play with Martin. One is his throwing, which went south on him in the spring of 2020, right before the shutdown, and still hasn’t improved. He was a plus defender at third base as a sophomore, but if he can’t throw well from the left side of the infield, that’s a non-starter."

The second issue referenced by Law is one that weighs heavily against Martin in every evaluation: a conspicuous lack of power. Even with the aggressive assignment to Double-A, a .382 slugging percentage in Year 1 from a top five draft pick is troubling. In 93 games, he managed just five homers and 18 doubles.

Says Law: "He’s had a tendency to shrink himself by crouching and striding toward the plate, which improved his plate coverage but robbed him of his ability to drive the ball."

Says Baseball America: "Gaining more strength and hitting the ball with authority more frequently will determine whether Martin becomes an impact regular or more of an average, everyday type player."

Says Jeffrey Paternostro of Baseball Prospectus: "He still needs to hit for some pop, or major league pitching isn’t gonna nibble."

That really gets to the bottom of it: standout OBP skills from the minors tend to fade quickly if MLB pitchers don't consider you a threat. On the bright side, Martin has plenty of time to build on his power output, and there's reason to believe that will happen. 

In his interview with Gleeman, Law called Martin's power concerns "overblown," citing a hand/wrist injury and shift in approach as sapping the natural pop that still resides within him. 

"It’s not a lack of strength but a conscious choice to give up contact quality in favor of avoiding the strikeout, and that can be changed — he certainly hasn’t always hit this way," says Law. "I absolutely believe the Twins are already addressing this."

What's Next?
Having proven himself in Double-A, and set to turn 23 in a month, Martin seems destined to open the 2022 season in St. Paul, where he'll be a stone's throw away from Target Field. From there it becomes a matter of opportunity. 

They won't call him up sit on the bench, and the multi-positional regular role is already occupied by Luis Arraez. An early injury to Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco or Josh Donaldson might open a door for Martin to step in. 

Another scenario that creates a path is moving Miguel Sanó to DH, Alex Kirilloff to first, and planting Martin in left field. 

But the problem is that Martin has barely played left field – his last official action at the position came in the form of 15 freshman appearances at Vanderbilt. He also hasn't spent significant time at third base since 2019, and has virtually no experience at second.

For this reason, it's likely the Twins will take a somewhat measured approach rather than rushing things. Martin is in some ways a refined product – he could pretty clearly take quality ABs in the major leagues, right now – but he'll benefit from getting reps at different positions, and there may be some work needed yet on his swing. 

Since he's not yet on the 40-man roster, Martin will be able to jump into action when the minor league season commences, even if the lockout delays the MLB season. He might be ready for the major leagues before the big-leaguers are.

Martin has a high bar to reach if he hopes to justify what the Twins gave up for him. 

What's To Like
During his professional career, Ryan has been a strikeout machine, and he continued that trend at the big-league level last season. Throughout his minor league career, he struck out 13 batters per nine innings with a WHIP under 0.90. During his five big-league starts, Ryan struck out 30 and only walked five. He provided quality starts in four of his five starts and pitched into the fifth inning in every appearance. Ryan showed that he has little left to prove in the minors and can immediately join the Twins rotation.  

So, how does Ryan accumulate all of these strikeouts? He offers a unique arm angle that makes batters perceive that the ball is coming at a higher velocity. Also, Ryan has excellent command, as evidenced by his walk rates throughout his professional career (2.1 BB/9 in the minors). His change-up and slider were also better than advertised as he can tunnel the ball well to keep batters off-balance. Out of his 30 strikeouts, 13 came from his off-speed pitches, which he throws 34% of the time. 

What's Left to Work On
Ryan shouldn't see the minors again, so the bulk of his development is tied to his adjustments at the big-league level. One of the biggest knocks against Ryan in his career has been his fastball-dependent approach. He threw his fastball nearly two-thirds of the time at the MLB level. Out of the 16 hits he allowed, ten came off his fastball, including five extra-base hits. His fastball velocity (91 avg mph) is significantly below the league average, but his unique arm angle makes it challenging for batters to track the ball. Will MLB hitters be able to find more success against him next season? That remains to be seen. 

His home run rate was also higher than some would like from a possible front-line starter. During his five MLB starts, he allowed four home runs which translates to a 1.4 HR/9. Ryan works high in the zone with his fastball, resulting in more fly-balls and home runs. In the minors, his career HR/9 rate was under 1.0, so there is some element of small sample size with his MLB total. His fastball is such a weapon up in the zone that he will continue to use it, and fans will have to be okay with him allowing an occasional home run.

Ryan also needs to prove he can neutralize left-handed hitters with his off-speed offerings. In the minors last season, lefties posted a .650 OPS, which was 173 points higher than righties. His home run rate was higher, and his strikeout rate was lower when facing southpaws. Lefties went 7-for-47 (.149 BA) against Ryan at the big-league level, but they collected three of the four home runs he allowed. Can Minnesota help him find an off-speed pitch to limit damage from left-handed hitters

What's Next
One of the reasons Minnesota traded for Ryan was because he was big-league ready. The Twins starting rotation has holes to fill for Opening Day, and Ryan looks like the team's number three starter. It will be imperative for the team to track his innings throughout his rookie season. He has only pitched more than 100 innings in one of his professional seasons, which was back in 2019. 

Is Joe Ryan going to develop into an ace that Twins fans have been clamoring for in recent years? This seems unlikely, and there are few of these pitchers in baseball. However, he is big-league ready and projects near the top of the team's rotation for years into the future. Are you excited about the Joe Ryan Experience? If not, get ready to jump on the bandwagon. 

What’s to Like?
Miranda had one of the best seasons for a prospect in Twins organizational history in 2021, so it’s hard to know where to start. Reports were high on Miranda from instructs at the end of the COVID shortened 2020 season.

Miranda’s greatest challenge prior to the 2021 season was his contact rate. He has a short, compact swing and shows the ability to drive the ball to all fields. Prior to the 2021 season, he put the ball in play so much, he made hard contact much less often than he was capable of, rarely working pitch counts or being selective with the contact he made.

Miranda tightening up his strike zone control had trajectory-altering implications for him in 2021, as he managed a combined 159 wRC+ at AA and AAA and had an offensive season on par with Yankees’ helium prospect Anthony Volpe.

What’s Left to Work On?
There are two remaining questions relating to Miranda’s status as a major leaguer. Was his breakout for real? Where is his defensive home? If Miranda’s breakout is for real, he should be, a lowest, the Twins #2 prospect (and possible #1 overall). Miranda does not have an established record of success in minor league baseball outside of 2021, posting wRC+ figures between 100-115 in his previous four seasons in the minors. If we want to be picky, Miranda could stand to walk more, managing just a 6.7% BB% in 2021 (about the same as Eddie Rosario).

Miranda is limited from entering uber-prospect status by an uncertain defensive home. Miranda has played at first base, second base, and in the outfield for the Twins. He’s looked best at third base. Even there, he will be, at best, a slightly below-average defender. This will be a puzzle for the organization to solve. A permanent move to first base or a corner outfield spot may be what gives him the best chance at being an average defender, but make no mistake, the bat will play anywhere. Pre-season projection like Miranda, with Steamer having him posting a 113 wRC+ and 15 HR in around 400 plate appearances in 2022. Miranda will be at Target Field in 2022, if his development curve continues, he’s a star in the making.

What’s To Like
Velocity has long been the name of the game on the mound, and it’s something the Twins haven’t seen from a starter they developed in a long time, maybe ever. Balazovic was sitting at 95 mph last year on his fastball, even after missing time to start the season due to injury. He pushed it up to 97 mph at times, and the electricity behind the pitch is something to drool over. With a starter’s mix, Balazovic also has a strong slider and has turned the changeup into an out pitch as well.

Double-A was a new test for Balazovic last season, and he did take a slight step backward in terms of numbers, but the elite stuff is still all there. A rough three-start stretch at the end of July made things look more mediocre than they were. Over his final eight starts, Balazovic posted a 2.72 ERA allowing just a .672 OPS against.

What’s Left To Work On
It’s not to say that Balazovic is a finished product, but he’s very close. Even with the time missed due to the pandemic, the Canadian is knocking on the door to the big leagues. A return to Double-A could be in the cards at the beginning of 2022, but he should quickly move up to Triple-A St. Paul. Balazovic has done a good job repeating his delivery, and continuing down a path of sustained success is a must for him.

Minnesota would probably like to see a trend back towards the 2019 numbers, but that’s also not a showstopper. The strikeouts were down slightly, and the walks rose, but both happened in minor increments. Settling back in with a clean bill of health should lead to more dominating performances than not.

What’s Next
It would be far from shocking if Balazovic was pitching for the Twins by mid-summer. He’s near ready as a prospect, and while he’s probably not the type to be called upon before ready in a spot-start role, he’s got the talent to force his way into sustained action. Minnesota should have a middle-of-the-rotation arm at worst here, and seeing him add even more would be a welcomed sight.

The Twins have been longing for a guy that can mow down the opposition, and Balazovic has the makings of someone capable of doing just that. If he can be a staff ace, the organization will have its next piece to build around.

What's to Like
In many respects, Woods Richardson’s scouting report is fairly straightforward. He owns a traditional three-pitch mix, consisting of a fastball, curve, and changeup, with all three offerings having plus potential. His fastball sits in the low-90s but can reach 94-95 mph every now and then; the curveball, his most inconsistent pitch in terms of quality, can make hitters look foolish when on; and his changeup features significant tailing action and is probably his best pitch overall at the moment.

Woods Richardson has never struggled to rack up strikeout numbers — he has 229 in 177 1/3 minor league innings — and it’s difficult to see that changing as he makes his way to the Majors. His raw stuff is among the best in the system and alone warrants his top 10 prospect ranking. Add in his age and athletic build, and there are few pitchers in the Twins’ farm system that possess a grander upside.  

What's Left to Work On
However, his weaknesses are just as glaring as his strengths. 

Woods Richardson has never had great command despite owning respectable walk rates prior to the 2021 season. However, his BB/9 jumped from around two per nine innings during his first two minor league seasons to 5.16 while a member of the Blue Jays and a putrid 9.00 after being shipped to the Twins. (He posted a 77:34 KK/BB ratio in 53 ⅓ innings overall last season, though it should be mentioned 16 of his walks came across three particularly bad starts.)

His struggles just prior and following his acquisition were likely the result of multiple factors. For starters, Woods Richardson missed approximately six weeks of action during the middle of the season as he was competing as a member of Team USA during the 2020 Olympics (he did not make a single appearance during the Games). Additionally, Woods Richardson, as was the case with most minor leaguers, did not pitch during games in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which likely impacted his endurance in a negative fashion.

But perhaps the most important factor of them all is his mechanics. Woods Richardson’s windup and arm motion mirror that of fellow Twins prospect Jordan Balazovic — who, perhaps coincidentally, also struggles with command at times — in that they extend their arm fully and drop the ball well below their respective belt lines during the stride phase of their delivery. They get a good push off from the legs and produce a great amount of force by tucking their glove hand powerfully under the armpit, rotating the torso powerfully.

In and of itself, there isn’t necessarily anything wrong with the foundation of Woods Richardson’s mechanics, however, it isn’t very compact being composed of many moving parts and long levers. The larger the pitching motion, the more unlikely it is to repeat consistently and the more likely it is for minor blemishes to cause large effects. Tightening up his motion ever so slightly may result in improved command and, thus, decreased walks for the Twins prospect.

What's Next
The Twins pitching staff will doubtless work with Woods Richardson to improve his command and overall performance, picking and prodding until the results manifest. After all, he is still years away from arriving in Minneapolis despite reaching Double-A before being allowed to drink legally. In all likelihood he will spend the majority of the 2022 in Wichita with the Wind Surge.

Woods Richardson has all of the talent to land as a Number 2 or 3 starter at the MLB level, it all just depends on his command. 

The Twins selected Josh Winder in the 7th round of the 2018 draft (the second process headed by Derek Falvey and Thad Levine) out of Virginia Military Institute. Winder spent the next two years milling around prospect list No Man’s Land with occasional phrases like “repeatable delivery” written to let you know his name can be forgotten. In retrospect, those rankings seem harsh, given that his 2019 season was more than serviceable. Winder tossed 125 2/3 innings at low A-ball with a 2.65 ERA, and a 3.44 FIP; plus he struck out then uber-prospect Wander Franco in the Midwest League All-Star Game. Heading into the mid-levels of the minor leagues, Winder appeared set to fly under the radar amongst people-in-the-know.

Then 2020 happened.

For most prospects, 2020 either knocked them off trajectory or at least shifted industry opinions to the negative; it was an entire year of development gone, after all. Winder went against the grain. He did not pitch at the alternate site, but some mechanical tweaks combined with a different workout routine netted him a few ticks of fastball velocity—an adjustment that adds to every pitcher’s prospect stock. When even a curmudgeon like Keith Law is intrigued to see you pitch, the game is tilting in your favor. Given this excess of previously non-existent attention, it would have been understandable if Winder fell flat in 2021, victimized by the weight of his own hype.

That did not happen.

Winder dominated AA to the tune of a 1.98 ERA. Over his 54 ⅔ innings pitched at the level, his 31.3% K rate provided the melody, while his outstanding 4.8% BB rate served as the harmony. Just five qualified starters in MLB struck out hitters at a higher rate; only one starter walked batters at a lower rate. 

It’s not difficult to see why Winder was so good, I lamented the “repeatable delivery” comment before, but he easily owns one of the smoothest windups I’ve seen from a Twins pitching prospect:

 Hitters have to be prepared for 96 at the pits, a breaking ball dropped in glove-side, and a changeup gliding away arm-side. That’s an impossible task.

After embarrassing AA hitters for a month and a half, Winder received the call to AAA, where he hit a minor roadblock. He started just four games which in itself is both a sign for relief and mild concern; four games is a sample too small to analyze closely, but he made such few starts due to a shoulder injury that ended his season prematurely. Those AAA stats—a 4.67 ERA, a 5.15 FIP, and a reduced strikeout rate of 22.4%—ultimately lessen his excellent 2021. In total, Winder tossed 72 innings with a 2.63 ERA, a 29.1% K rate, a 4.7% BB rate, and a FIP of 3.40. Amongst 251 pitchers who threw 70 innings in the upper minors (AA and AAA), Winder posted the 12th best K-BB% and was the highest placed Twins starter with those qualifications. Yeah, I know that stat is a bit of a stretch, just understand that Winder was unusually dominant amongst pitchers around his league placement. 

When we were dicing out which writer would cover which prospect, I immediately leaped at the chance to post Winder’s writeup. His 2021 season greatly intrigued me—what soulless Twins fan wouldn’t find interest in a pitcher who netted results after improving their raw ability? There are pitching prospects with more impressive stuff, a higher ceiling, a more regal pedigree, or a more dominant individual pitch, but few, if any, can harvest a plethora of crucial pitching characteristics like Winder. He is, in many ways, the total package.

What's To Like
On May 27th of last year, Duran had it all working. His entire "What's To Like" section could essentially be boiled down to that outing alone.

Facing the Iowa Cubs in his second start of the year for St. Paul, the Dominican right-hander struck out eight over four innings of one-hit, shutout ball. He touched triple digits multiple times with his heater. He unleashed a bevy of nasty offspeed pitches, including his signature "splinker." 

Duran was in command and flat-out dominant, showing every bit of the ability that made him the top pitcher in our rankings last year. 

This ability has more or less been on display since Duran first came to Minnesota at the 2018 deadline, when he led the return package from Arizona for Eduardo Escobar. In 167 innings as part of the Twins organization, he has 202 strikeouts and a 3.50 ERA, with just 132 hits allowed.

Duran's performance tailed off quickly last year after the aforementioned late-May gem, and he was shut down before the end of June due to an elbow strain. Concerning, obviously, but hardly damning after the disruption of a lost season in 2020. Plenty of other pitchers experienced health issues last year, inside and outside the Twins organization.

The Twins opted for a PRP injection rather than surgery. He was able to throw again in the fall, albeit not in live games – seemingly a positive sign. He's already 24 and hasn't built up much durability, so the bullpen is Duran's most likely destination at this point. 

And that's okay. So long as he stays off the injured list and is able to unleash his arsenal at full strength, he will be an asset. 

What's Left To Work On
Duran was not a perfect prospect even before injuries wiped out his 2021 season – his control and changeup both need work, especially if he hopes to stick as a starter – but simply keeping himself on the mound would be a huge accomplishment for the 6-foot-5 hurler in 2022. 

Throwing 16 innings total over the past two years is a major setback to his workload development, although he'd built up a decent baseline beforehand by throwing 100 innings in 2018 and 115 in 2019. 

His big sturdy build and previous history of durability provide hope Duran can get back on track health-wise. But we'll have to see him get through a couple months incident-free in order to feel confident the team's course of action in 2021 negated a need for surgery, rather than delaying it.

What's Next
It's unknown exactly what the Twins' plan is for Duran this year. There's been no indication the club intends to move him into the bullpen straightaway, but surely they will be very cautious with his innings – even his pitch counts and stress levels within those innings. 

On one hand, keeping him in Triple-A for awhile seems like the best way to carefully manage his arm. On the other hand, if he truly is healthy and throwing flames again, you don't necessarily wanna waste a bunch of his bullets in the minors. 

It might be the best way to bring Duran along is as a multi-inning reliever, which would fit with the vision for a modular pitching staff that doesn't rely on traditional six-inning starters to shoulder the load. 

Unless and until the Twins make some impactful veteran additions to the rotation, I'm going to assume they're tentatively planning as such. If healthy (a big IF, clearly), I'd give Duran a decent chance of winning a roster spot in spring training and a strong chance of debuting in the first half of the season.

What’s to Like?
Off the mound, Matt Canterino is a friendly, likable player who is always generous with his time, thoughts, and perspective. On the mound, he’s an apex predator, pacing and stalking around the mound with the level of intent he brings to his pitches.

Canterino has a true four-pitch mix, beginning with a blazing fastball. At Rice, this sat in the low 90s, but he sits comfortably in the upper 90s with it now (reaching 99 mph). The other pitch which has developed into a significant weapon since he turned professional is his changeup, which has developed excellent tumble and is a plus pitch against hitters on both sides of the plate. 

Canterino also offers a deep curveball which sits in the high 70s/low 80s and a hard slider, which is his best breaking pitch. Canterino also has excellent control, (despite unusual, herky-jerky looking mechanics), walking just four hitters in 23 innings pitched in 2021 and dominating two levels of minor league baseball in the process. 

What’s Left to Work On?
Not much, in terms of his pitch mix or approach. Canterino now carries a 60-grade fastball to go with a 55-grade changeup and 55-grade slider, with 55-grade control. There’s really only one orange flag in his young career. Health.

Canterino missed the majority of 2021 with elbow injuries. Additionally, his collegiate career was spent at Rice, a program notorious for being reckless with young arms. Canterino could not have had a more dominant start to his professional career, but the combination of a shortened season in 2020 and injuries in 2021 mean he has not pitched more than 25 innings in a season in his career to date. If he can remain healthy, he has middle to top of the rotation upside as a starting pitcher. Make no mistake, a healthy Matt Canterino in 2022 should be a dominant force in the minor leagues if his short track record is any indicator.

Rodríguez gained considerable buzz after his power-heavy debut for the FCL Twins. 58% of his plate appearances ended in a walk, strikeout, or home run. To slug .524 in his pro debut at 18 years old is reason enough for excitement, but there are things Rodríguez has to work on as he works his way up. 

Touted for his advanced approach at the plate, Rodríguez is oozing with projection. Scouts have tabbed Rodríguez with above-average speed in centerfield with a chance to stay there permanently. If you’re looking for a talented potential future top prospect for the Twins, Rodríguez is probably your best bet.

Chosen with the 38th pick of the 2021 Draft, Noah Miller is one of the top young prospects to graze Twins Territory. A stand-out hitter on both sides of the plate, Miller is as solid as it gets with his glove at shortstop. Tabbing Brandon Crawford as his favorite shortstop growing up, Miller's sleek defense was a marquee factor in the Twins using their second draft pick (Competitive Balance) on him. 

Miller had a brief chance to get his feet wet at the pro level in 2022 with 96 plate appearances in the Florida Complex League. Expect him to start at Low-A in 2022 and get ready to watch what could be one of the organization's best draft picks in recent history. Read more on Miller's high ceiling courtesy of Twins Daily's JD Cameron. 

Arguably the most exciting pitching in the Twins farm system, Louie Varland's electric 2021 season earned him accolades as Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year and Twins Daily Minor League Starting Pitcher of the Year. A product of the Twin Cities, Varland was promoted from Low-A Fort Myers to High-A Cedar Rapids after just eight starts and emerged as the Kernels' ace. 

Varland relies heavily on a high fastball and shared that he is honing in on his off-speed pitches on Twins Spotlight with Seth Stohs. A truly dominant arm, Varland averaged 12.4 strikeouts and only 2.6 walks per nine innings in 2021. Expected to get his feet wet in Cedar Rapids, don't be surprised to see the Concordia-St. Paul alum scales the ranks of the Twins organization in 2022. 

The 2018 fifth-round draft pick for the Twins did not disappoint in his second full season with the Twins organization. After bouncing between three levels in 2019, Cole Sands was a rock for the Wind Surge last season, posting a 4-2 record and averaging only 3.6 walks per nine innings. 

Sands isn't necessarily the high-velocity, deep-inning pitcher that fills seats; that doesn't matter, the Florida State alum gets outs. Sands keeps the ball on the ground and only gave up six homers last year and averaged 0.7 HR/9 on his sophomore campaign. Efficiency produces results; like Varland, 2022 could be a huge breakout year for Sands.

What’s to Like
Despite being listed at 5’10” — a liberal measure of his height, to be sure — and 155 pounds, Henriquez boasts a fastball that consistently hits the mid-90s. Although its spin rate and other concrete metrics are elusive, its overall shape is consistent with successful fastballs in the modern MLB game: It plays best up in the zone and appears to possess good carry, giving it the illusion of rising action.

Henriquez accomplishes this by getting on top of his fastball at the point of release. While he utilizes a three-quarter arm slot, a concurrent lateral lean of his trunk allows him to get more vertical spin on his heater, giving it that illusion of carry. His secondary stuff needs some work — more on that in a little bit — but his fastball will be a legitimate MLB offering, if it isn’t already.

What’s Left to Work On
Henriquez possesses two other offerings in his arsenal: a slider and a changeup. When on, his slider can be an effective pitch, particularly when placed on the outside edge of the plate for a right-handed batter. However, overall the pitch is rather uninspiring at the moment due to his iffy command of it as well as its lack of consistent bite.

As for the changeup, well, it’s his third pitch and from the video I’ve seen, he rarely offers it up to right-handers and begrudgingly does so to lefties. In short, Henriquez only has one MLB caliber pitch at the moment, which raises questions about his future as a starter. If he can improve the consistency of at least his slider, he may have a shot at sticking in the rotation.

Even so, his overall command can be iffy, even of his fastball. While Henriquez has never posted a strikeout rate less than 26% during his three-season career in the minors, his walk-rate has hovered around 6-7% or roughly three walks per nine innings. Improving his command will be imperative for him if he wants to remain a starter.

Additionally, Henriquez is a fly ball pitcher who struggled with the long ball last summer. At Double-A, he surrendered 15 home runs to go along with a 41% fly-ball rate, which equated to a whopping 19.5% home run per fly ball rate, according to FanGraphs. That’s much too high, so it should come as no shock to see that he posted a 4.86 FIP in 69 2/3 innings. His ability to keep the ball in the park while continuing to miss bats will be a large factor in determining his ability to reach the major leagues.

Finally, while his motion is rather compact and repeatable, he could probably stand to generate more force from his drive leg. Doing so will allow him to maintain velocity on his fastball while simultaneously cutting down on the force imparted on his shoulder and inner elbow, potentially reducing injury risk.

What’s Next
Henriquez will likely begin the season with Double-A Wichita and could reach Triple-A St. Paul relatively quickly if he finds success as his fastball is ready to test MLB waters. It wouldn’t come as a total shock if he made his Twins debut during the latter portion of the season out of the bullpen, though, if the Twins wish to continue to develop him as a starter, he likely won’t make his debut until the following summer. 

The Twins have had success in recent seasons developing young arms with some upside into viable MLB candidates. In many ways, Henriquez is exactly the kind of pitcher the Twins have been able to maximize, not unlike Louie Varland and Josh Winder. While he is not likely to be considered a top 10 prospect in the Twins system, he is the perfect athlete to take a flier on in the trade market.

What’s to Like
When the Twins drafted Marco Raya with their fourth-round pick in 2020 out of United South High School in Laredo, Texas, comparisons to All Star Jose Berrios were obvious. Like Berrios, Raya stands just about 6-0 tall and was listed at 170 pounds (which may have been generous). Raya was throwing just over 90 mph despite the small frame and was known for his pitchability, control and command of multiple pitches. While he missed the 2021 season with a minor injury, he was back for instructional league following the season. That is where reports of him now hitting 97 mph originated. Add that kind of velocity to pitchability, and you’ve got a very exciting prospect. Still just 19, Raya is known to work hard. He has now made his professional debut in 2022 in Ft. Myers and has shown good control and the ability to miss bats. He is a really good athlete and fields his position well.

What’s Left to Work on?
Raya just needs time and patience. He needs to continue to grow and gain strength in his arms and legs. He needs innings to work on each of his pitches, the command of them and how to use them while sequencing. That just takes time and innings. Like all young players, it will be about consistency for his delivery, motion, release point and all of those technical things.

What’s Next?
It is most likely Raya will spend the full 2022 season with the Mighty Mussels, but if he continues to dominate Florida State League hitters, he may force the organization’s hand.

An example of the Twins helping their contact-oriented prospects tap into more power; Steer hit 24 homers in 110 games in 2021. He had never hit more than six homers in a season, dating back to Oregon. Steer broke out at Cedar Rapids before struggling initially in Wichita. He had a 26-game stretch where he hit .307/.371/.634 (1.004 OPS) for the Surge. 

Steer worked hard to add more pop to his bat, and his progression has significantly improved his ceiling. Instead of a future slap-hitting utility player, Steer now projects as a potential double-digit homer bat. Steer’s development is certainly encouraging. 

What’s to Like
When the Twins took the southpaw in the 3rd round of the 2021 MLB Draft, he was coming off of a season at Nebraska where he went 6-1 with a 3.11 ERA. Long and lean, Povich signed quickly and reported to Ft. Myers. He pitched once in the FCL and three times at the end of the season. In 10 total innings, he gave up one earned run and walked two while striking out 19 batters. He really impressed when he showed up at instructional league and was hitting 97 on the radar gun with a very sharp slider and a good changeup. Most of the time, he has really good control and understands how to pitch.

What’s Left to Work on?
He needs to get bigger and stronger and that will take time and maturing. Beyond that, he just needs to work innings and work in a variety of situations, and continue to learn how to pitch. The fastball has greatly improved. The slider can be devastating, but he needs it to be more consistent. The changeup is his third pitch and while it has improved, he will continue to work on it to make it even more of an out pitch.  

What’s Next?
The Twins were very aggressive in starting Povich in Cedar Rapids to start his first full pro season. It is possible that he spends the full season with the Kernels. However, if he continues to have such dominant strikeout to walk rates, he could move up Wichita by midseason.