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Activity in MLB free agency is expected to pick up considerably this week, with a flurry of moves coming before MLB reaches its December 2 lockout deadline. As teams begin addressing their biggest roster needs, the Minnesota Twins will have plenty of decisions to make about which players are worth pursuing and which contracts carry too much risk.
There are always players who look like attractive additions on the surface but could turn into financial burdens before their contracts are finished. The Twins have experienced this firsthand in recent years, with deals for Carlos Correa, Christian Vázquez, and Victor Caratini—each of which has come with its own set of challenges. While those contracts aren't identical, they serve as reminders of how quickly a free-agent signing can go from an exciting addition to a big mistake.
With that in mind, let's look at three landmines the Twins should steer clear of this offseason. This isn't a list of unrealistic targets or superstars Minnesota has no chance of signing. Instead, these are players the Twins could realistically pursue, but whose projected contracts carry significant long-term risk. I'm also limiting the list to players expected to receive multi-year deals. A one-year contract might not work out, but a one-year contract is never truly a bad deal. All contract projections discussed are based on predictions from MLB Trade Rumors.
Brandon Lowe, 2B
Contract prediction: 3 years, $69 million
The Twins pursuing a second baseman in free agency wouldn't be a bad idea. One potential roster construction would involve moving on from Royce Lewis, shifting Kody Clemens over to handle first base, and bringing in an established second baseman. There are a few players at the position who would make sense, but Brandon Lowe is one option I would prefer the Twins avoid.
Lowe has plenty of power in his bat, but there are some concerning underlying numbers that make his projected contract difficult to justify. He strikes out nearly 29% of the time while walking less than 10% of the time. Those numbers create some volatility in his offensive production, particularly as he gets older and loses some of the power that makes him such an intriguing hitter.
The long-time Rays utility man will turn 33 next season, meaning a three-year contract would keep him under team control past his 35th birthday. An average annual value of $23 million is a significant commitment for a player whose offensive profile already carries some downside. Lowe could certainly provide an exciting middle-of-the-order bat, but the Twins aren't in a position to take that kind of financial risk.
There's another complication, too. Lowe received a qualifying offer, meaning the Twins would have to surrender draft pick compensation to sign him. Giving up a draft pick while committing $69 million to an aging second baseman with a high strikeout rate isn't the kind of investment Minnesota should be making.
David Bednar, RP
Contract prediction: 4 years, $68 million
The Twins haven't signed a relief pitcher to a multi-year free agent contract in nearly a decade. Given the state of their bullpen heading into 2027, there's a case to be made for changing that approach. However, that doesn't mean Minnesota should throw crazy amounts of money around when pursuing established relievers, especially when the contract could extend well into a pitcher's mid-30s.
David Bednar is one of the most talented relievers available and would give the Twins a significant upgrade at the back end of their bullpen. He has the stuff and experience to handle high-leverage situations, and adding someone of his caliber would address one of Minnesota's biggest roster weaknesses. The problem is the projected contract. MLB Trade Rumors predicts a four-year deal worth $68 million, which would be a massive commitment for a reliever entering his age-32 season.
Relief pitchers are notoriously difficult to project from year to year. Even some of the best closers in baseball can experience sudden declines in velocity, command, or effectiveness. Committing four years and $68 million to a reliever is always a gamble, but doing so with a pitcher in his early 30s makes the final years of that deal particularly concerning. The Twins would essentially be betting that Bednar can remain an elite bullpen option well into his mid-30s.
Like Lowe, Bednar also received a qualifying offer, meaning Minnesota would have to surrender a draft pick to bring him aboard. That's another significant cost attached to an already-risky contract. Bednar would probably make the Twins better in the short term, but the downside of this deal is difficult to ignore. The Twins need bullpen help, but they don't need to create another expensive roster problem in the process.
Ryan Jeffers, C
Contract prediction: 4 years, $75 million
This one might be controversial, because Ryan Jeffers is beloved within Twins Territory. The Twins extended a qualifying offer to their veteran catcher, giving him the opportunity to return on a one-year deal worth $23.15 million. However, there's also the possibility that Jeffers declines the offer and the two sides work toward a longer-term agreement.
I'm not sure that would be a good outcome for Minnesota. Jeffers has established himself as one of the best offensive catchers in the American League, and his bat is certainly valuable at a position where good offense is difficult to find. However, there are reasons why the Twins' contracts with Vázquez and Caratini became problematic. Catchers are particularly difficult to project.
Jeffers will turn 30 next season, and a four-year contract would keep him in Minnesota as Father Time sinks his claws into him. The physical demands of catching take a toll, and there is no guarantee Jeffers will be able to handle that workload throughout the life of the contract—especially since he's never withstood a full-time backstop's workload, to date. If he eventually has to move to first base or become a designated hitter, his offensive production would need to stay extremely strong to justify the investment.
At a projected $18.75 million annually, that's a difficult proposition. Jeffers is a good offensive catcher, but paying nearly $19 million per season for a player who might eventually need to move away from the position doesn't make much sense for a team with Minnesota's financial limitations. The one-year qualifying offer is a different conversation, but committing four years and $75 million would be a risk I would rather the Twins avoid.
The Twins have plenty of work to do this offseason, and there are legitimate opportunities to improve the roster through free agency. Lowe, Bednar, and Jeffers are all talented players who could help the Twins in the short term. That doesn't mean their projected contracts are worthwhile investments. The Twins have already seen how quickly deals for players like Vázquez and Caratini can become difficult to move on from. Avoiding the next version of those contracts should be just as important as finding the next impact addition.
Are there other free agent landmines the Twins should avoid this offseason? Would you be comfortable with any of these projected contracts? Leave a comment below and start the conversation!
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