Article: Twins Roster Projection 2.0

[TKGuy]

I really believe that they should give Pinto the backup and DH, he still would play 5-6 times a week. At this point, barring a trade of Correia, I think Gibson should stick and see what we have.

 

For 2014 As a fan, here is what I'd like to see:

 

Nolasco, Hughes, Pelf, Correia and Gibson

 

Perk, Burton, Fien, Swarzak, Theilbar, Duensing and Deduno

 

Suzuki and Pinto

 

Mauer, Dozier, Florimon/Escobar, Plouffe

 

Hammer, Parms, Hicks, Arcia and Presley

 

Colabello

 

 

 

At this point does it really matter if we lose Diamond or Worley? Are they really ever going to be a part of the contending team next year? I certainly don't want to lose Parms for nothing because I can at least see him as a 4th OF and LH bench bat on a contending team which is not the case for Diamond or Worley. I even think that Colabello off the bench and occasional DH against lefties will be useful in the future. I would even consider switching out Pressly for Deduno, but Pressly has been shaky so far.

 

I also don't see the need for an extra utility player in the INF besides Escobar. Parms or Colabello can back up Joe, Escobar can cover the other three positions and Dozier can play SS in a pinch. If Florimon isn't ready, I would consider taking Bartlett or Bernier as utility players.

 

Our bench and DH have been atrocious lately, so having RH Pinto and Colabello and one of the LH OFs would actually be a pretty nice bench and DH combo to go with Escobar. I took Presley over Kubel just because he can play CF.

 

I want them to bring the best 25 north with them regardless of option status after the previous disastrous seasons. I'm not advocating for Meyer, Buxton or even Santana at the moment, but we need to stop demoting players just because they have options in my opinion.

[ND-Fan]

The Twins team as I see it coming north is going to be a little disappointment to the Fans. The starting pitching I believe is going to be Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfry,, Correia, and my guess would be Diamond or Deduno. Relievers will be Perkins, Burton, Swarzak, Duensing, Fien, and Worley. Infielders will be Mauer, Dozier, Florimon, Plouffe, and Escobar. Outfielders will be Pressely, Willingham, Parmelee, Kubel, Mastroni, and Colabello. Catchers will be Susuki and Fryer. I think this is how Twins start out the season Hicks, Pinto, Gibson, Arcia and Myer are going to be sent back to minors to get them ready or until there's opening for them at major league level. Also wouldn't be surprised if Worley, Diamond, and Parmelee are traded before they head north or soon afterward. This will be Twins to start the season and when or I should say if it starts to fall apart Twins will be letting go of a lot of veterans by trading or releasing to make room for youngsters. This is how they will sell second half of the season come out to watch the future Twins. Hicks, Arcia, Gibson, and Pinto will all be called up by August and by September Myer and Buxton will be making appearances besides maybe couple other prospects. Also I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins sign Stephen Drew before the season starts I have hunch that his price range may get down to level where the Twins might sign him. I don't think its so much the draft pick as it is money they loose to sign there other draft picks that hold up to signing these free agents. Also some of pitchers sent down that have been at major league level will be back as soon as there's injury or they have traded likes of Worley, Diamon, Deduno, and I think Burton and Swarzak could also be on the trade block if right offer came along. This year is big transition year where we start with the old and bringing the young to be evaluated for the 2015 season. Its going to be year of who they are going to keep on longer term and who are expendable to be used to stock there minors for future needs. The Twins are going to be building for 2016 and 2017 seasons when I think they can make a run at getting to the World Series.

[Reider]

Does Florimon have options? Why isn't Escobar being considered for the everyday shortstop job? He seems to have a better bat. And we need every bit of offense we can get.

Not so fast. Escobar really hasn't looked good to me defensively this spring. Missed a fly ball behind him, which he should have caught, double clutched and was unable to throw a guy out at first, etc.. and that was just in the one game. I think it's too early in spring to be giving Escobar the starting job. I"m not convinced that his offense is good enough to make up for his defense.

[Reider]

I have no idea why Florimon (his bat is weak, Escobar is much better with the bat and pretty close in fielding if not even better. Gotta start a Free Eduardo Escobar movement one of these days) and Fien (he has an option and has been pitching over his head last season) should be givens.

Have you watched any spring training games? Escobar does not look that good defensively (limited sample size). Better than Florimon? Escobar seems to be putting up better numbers with his bat in the limited amount of AB's he's had, but defensively, you have no idea what you are talking about. As I've said many of times in the past, Twins fans don't even know what they have in Florimon. Defensively, Florimon was arguably a top 5 last year and has the tools to be a #2 this year. Escobar on the other hand? I don't think so. He has a lot of work to do defensively.

 

That and the fact that his defensive tools simply aren't as good as Florimon's. There are some things that you just cannot teach. Florimon "has it" defensively. Him and Dozier work very good together.

[oldguy10]

^^^It is said here "the contending team next year", I surely do not understand how that assumption can be made, please advise.

[cmathewson]

I don't get the Escobar love. He's a decent bench option. But he has never hit better than Florimon over a full season. And his range and arm can't compete with Florimon. As soon as Florimon is ready, he's the starter. Then the question is, does Escobar have enough versatility to be the utility guy? According to reports, no. His work at third leaves a lot to be desired. His work around the bag at second has also been questioned. My money's on Bartlett, who is the better bench bat.

[TKGuy]

^^^It is said here "the contending team next year", I surely do not understand how that assumption can be made, please advise.

 

I fully expect the Twins to compete for a playoff spot next year. Heck, they may be able to "improve" to third in the division ahead of Cleveland and Chicago this year. Detroit is getting older and I expect more aggressiveness on the FA market this offseason. KC may be the team to beat.

[stringer bell]

Good discussion, as always! There are a lot of points of view, but it seems the consensus is that the kids should play. I guess after three straight non-competitive seasons, it figures that calls for wholesale change should be louder than anything else.

 

I tend to regard past performance more than "upside" or projection, so I do hold out hope for bouncebacks from Diamond, Worley, and Willingham. That said, I'm just not sure there's anything left with Kubel and Bartlett (age & injuries). Bat-first guys have to hit and I would classify Kubel, Hammer, and Colabello in that category. I don't think I would consider Parmelee "bat-first", he is decent in the OF and a pretty good 1B.

 

IMHO, Hicks has to go back to AAA and master that level. It has been his history to struggle and then thrive at each level and he's not yet thrived at AAA. I hope he has a fast start and supplants Presley. I like Arcia and hope he wins a corner OF job, but he's got to do more than hit an occasional homer. He has the potential to be a great hitter, with a high batting average, but he needs to be more selective and cut down on the Ks. He probably has the least to prove at Rochester of those that being talked about in the roster discussion, but it's possible he spends some time there this year. I am a Pinto fan. I thought he earned his promotions last year and he thrived at each level. From what I've seen and read, concerns about his defense are overblown, but he isn't a plus defender although he has the tools to be that. Let's remember that he had less than 80 PAs at Triple A. Getting regular time there for a month or so might be better for his development that being a backup catcher. 40 days in Rochester would also give the Twins another year of team control. That probably fits into the equation, as well.

[stringer bell]

Today, I will make one change from my earlier projections--I think Parmelee makes the team at the expense of Kubel. That moves Arcia to left and Willingham to DH more often. I think one clue to this will be if the Twins try Parm in left. Arcia has looked to be a bit more comfortable in right and if CP can play an acceptable left, they can leave Arcia alone at one position.

 

I am still half-heartedly going with Bartlett as the 13th position player. IMHO, Escobar is a lock and Florimon is nearly certain to be ready and start at short. Escobar's rep is as a solid fielder at all three positions. I've seen some talk that it isn't really so, but I'll go with his rep. As far as defense goes, I think Escobar doesn't have great range at his best position (SS), which is why Florimon is viewed as the clearly better option there. Escobar would have to hit his way into the starting lineup and that is a tall order for him. Anyway, I'm going with Bartlett as a second utility guy and possible RH bench bat. His competition would be Colabello and Wilken Ramirez. Colabello is bat-first and a liability on defense. Ramirez is a three-position OF, who can cover CF for a day or two, not much longer.

 

Here goes: Starters: Suzuki, Mauer, Dozier, Florimon, Plouffe, Willingham, Parmelee, Presley, Arcia. Bench: Bartlett, Escobar, Fryer, Mastroianni

 

Starting Pitchers: Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Correia, Diamond. Relief: Worley, Swarzak, Duensing, Fien, Thielbar, Burton, Perkins. Deduno disabled, unless one of the twelve listed suffers an injury.

[Since71]

Florimon does have options left, but Gardy has already designated him the opening day SS.

This is part of the problem. Designating a sub-par guy as your starter before spring training is foolish for a team that has been as bad as the Twins for the last 3 years. Wasn't there a comment before last year that players were going to have to earn their spots? whatever happened to that philosophy?

[twinsfan34]

Based on the Spring Training starting lineups (if that means anything).

 

The Twins lineups have mostly been like this:

 

CF - Alex Pressley (1st game, Hicks led off, injured here and there since)

2B - Brian Dozier

1B - Joe Mauer

LF - Josh Willingham

RF - Oswaldo Arcia

3B - Trevor Plouffe

DH - varied a lot - Pinto, Kubel

C - Kurt Suzuki

SS - Escobar (Florimon has been injured)

 

Some have Oswaldo not starting with the team. I just don't see anyone else doing his 'floor' (.250 AVG 18 HR 150 K)...let alone better than that.

 

Kubel has looked terrible. Parmalee couldn't hit Arcia's floor right now, Mastroianni either.

[cmathewson]

This is part of the problem. Designating a sub-par guy as your starter before spring training is foolish for a team that has been as bad as the Twins for the last 3 years. Wasn't there a comment before last year that players were going to have to earn their spots? whatever happened to that philosophy?

 

He might be sub-par, but he's the best guy on the roster at that position. He proved that amply last year. If they had a better option, I doubt Gardy would make such a proclamation.

[Since71]

He very well might be the best option but he is certainly not so much better than Escobar that you anoint him the starter before spring training. Doing so reduces competition which may negatively impact both players performance. When you lose 90+ for 3+ you should keep an open mind.

[Dman]

I have no idea why Florimon (his bat is weak, Escobar is much better with the bat and pretty close in fielding if not even better. Gotta start a Free Eduardo Escobar movement one of these days) and Fien (he has an option and has been pitching over his head last season) should be givens.

 

Also Fryer gives this team zero that Pinto or even Herrmann (who has much more versatility) does not. Fryer's 40-man roster spot should be the first or second (paging Mr Raley) that should open.

 

As far as pitching goes, I have this feeling (and maybe because his name has been mentioned in the Philly area, and the Phillies are kinda slated to go with Jeff Manship as their fifth starter - yes THAT Jeff Manship) that Correia (and/or Worley, even though I did not hear anything about him) for that matter will get traded, opening a spot in the rotation for Gibson plus one, which might not be a bad thing.

 

Also, Presley is way far removed from being a lock. He is out of options, but the Twins have many options in addition to him...

 

I like Escobar as well but I see several people disagree with that especially when it comes to defense and I guess I can see that. I like Florimon but I just have this gut feeling that Escobar can hit 260 or 270 and I don't get that feeling with Florimon. I would at least like to see Escobar get a longer shot to see what he can do. I could be wrong as I often am but I think he deserves a shot. So I am with you on the free Escobar campaign.

 

I am fine trading a pitcher but considering what we have gotten from the Phillies I am not inclined to go there again.

[cmathewson]

Pedro Florimon: Minor League OPS: .675; Major League OPS: .601

Eduardo Escobar: Minor League OPS: .675; Major League OPS: .587

 

They had a competition last spring. Florimon won, based mostly on his superior defense. He did nothing to lose that job last summer, by some measures he was in the top 5 in the MLB in SS defense. Why change?

[Since71]

Pedro Florimon: Minor League OPS: .675; Major League OPS: .601

Eduardo Escobar: Minor League OPS: .675; Major League OPS: .587

 

They had a competition last spring. Florimon won, based mostly on his superior defense. He did nothing to lose that job last summer, by some measures he was in the top 5 in the MLB in SS defense. Why change?

I'm not saying change is what should happen but that was last year and I agree Florimon did nothing to lose the job but the idea is to always get better. I spent 25 years in Sales and you had to prove yourself every month every year. If not it was bye bye. That type of pressure from management kept everyone focused. If Florimon was Jeter I could see naming him he starter before the spring but he is not and they have lost 90+ for multiple years...just makes no sense to me. As an example last year there was a quote from Terry Ryan that they wanted to bring in competition for 3rd base they didn"t and Plouffe did not progress. Maybe he wouldn't have anyway but the point is sometimes being pushed helps and sometimes not being pushed hurts.

[cmathewson]

I'm not saying change is what should happen but that was last year and I agree Florimon did nothing to lose the job but the idea is to always get better. I spent 25 years in Sales and you had to prove yourself every month every year. If not it was bye bye. That type of pressure from management kept everyone focused. If Florimon was Jeter I could see naming him he starter before the spring but he is not and they have lost 90+ for multiple years...just makes no sense to me. As an example last year there was a quote from Terry Ryan that they wanted to bring in competition for 3rd base they didn"t and Plouffe did not progress. Maybe he wouldn't have anyway but the point is sometimes being pushed helps and sometimes not being pushed hurts.

 

You don't get better by putting in an inferior player. Escobar is the proverbial back-up quarterback. When the starter doesn't excel, he's the guy every "first-time caller, long-time listener" wants to get the job. Most back-ups are in that role for a reason, because they're not as good as the stater. Same thing here.

 

If anyone is going to push Florimon, it will be Santana. I fully expect that to happen this year, but not out of spring training. Santana has superior tools. He just needs to file off some rough edges in AAA before they give him a shot.

[Jim H]

The biggest part of this thread is about Arcia, Pinto, Hicks and Gibson. While I would like to see all four start the year with the Twins, that isn't a given and probably shouldn't be. There is no "right" way to handle young or youngish prospects, it should be largely on an individual basis. Interestingly, if you look at all the young players the Twins brought up and established themselves as multiyear regulars since 2000, it would be hard to find one that didn't struggle at some point during their first 2 years, except Mauer.

 

Often there was a lot of clamoring for the Twins to bring up the next hot prospect, very seldom did such prospect take off without struggling. Many times they were up and down between AAA and the majors before they did establish themselves. Sometimes they were able to play thru their struggles(or perhaps allowed to) generally though, they would be back to AAA for awhile. I am not sure there is any right way to do this. I expect that if prospect is good enough, he will eventually establish himself no matter how he is handled, but logically there is probably a best way for each prospect.

 

While I try not to get too excited either way, the one thing I hate to see is for a promising young guy to be buried on a major league bench with inconsistent or eratic playing time. I would rather see them in the minors, then. I think that has happened with guys like Cuddyer, Parmelee and a few others. While it didn't ruin Cuddyer, it may have delayed his major league success.

[Since71]

You don't get better by putting in an inferior player. Escobar is the proverbial back-up quarterback. When the starter doesn't excel, he's the guy every "first-time caller, long-time listener" wants to get the job. Most back-ups are in that role for a reason, because they're not as good as the stater. Same thing here.

 

If anyone is going to push Florimon, it will be Santana. I fully expect that to happen this year, but not out of spring training. Santana has superior tools. He just needs to file off some rough edges in AAA before they give him a shot.

I never said Escobar should be the starter. I said it was not a good idea too name Florimon the starter before spring training. Plus I am not as convinced as you are that Florimon is the better option. I will assume that your "first time caller-long time listener" was not meant to insult me as not as astute as you and others simply because I have not posted as often. As my name suggests I have been a Twins fan since 1971. I live in Rochester NY I go to about 10 Redwings games a year and watch many more on TV. I am by no means an expert on baseball but know enough to have my opinions respected regardless of how often I post them.

[Jham]

Listen, I want to see the young kids as much as anyone. Especially given the rather mundane veteran alternatives. But, I think it is more beneficial for the team to make the kids earn playing time and force the Twins' hand. Look what happened when we just gave a spot to Hicks. Make them earn it. Plus, Arcia, Hicks, Parmalee, Gibson, Collabello, etc. were all given more than a fair shake and really did not take advantage. So even though I'd rather see some of the young guys develop, I believe the team is better off making the prospects work. None of them are good enough to just be handed a position anyway.

[cmathewson]

I never said Escobar should be the starter. I said it was not a good idea too name Florimon the starter before spring training. Plus I am not as convinced as you are that Florimon is the better option. I will assume that your "first time caller-long time listener" was not meant to insult me as not as astute as you and others simply because I have not posted as often. As my name suggests I have been a Twins fan since 1971. I live in Rochester NY I go to about 10 Redwings games a year and watch many more on TV. I am by no means an expert on baseball but know enough to have my opinions respected regardless of how often I post them.

 

No offense intended. Sorry if it came off that way. It was just an analogy. Lots of posters are giving Escobar far more credence than his number warrant. It seems like a lot of them like him better simply because he's not Florimon. That's the point I was trying to make.

[Since71]

No offense intended. Sorry if it came off that way. It was just an analogy. Lots of posters are giving Escobar far more credence than his number warrant. It seems like a lot of them like him better simply because he's not Florimon. That's the point I was trying to make.

OK no problem. All I want is for the Twins to be open minded as to who the best players are. I doubt that either Flori or Escobar are the long term solution and hope Santana is...as to who makes the roster this year it really doesn't matter cause 78 wins is probably the best to hope for sad to say... But hope remains eternal and we all want the same thing...

[Guest USAFChief]

I doubt that either Flori or Escobar are the long term solution...

Concur.

[stringer bell]

I'll go one step farther and say that the long-term solution isn't in the Twins system at this point. I don't know if Santana will develop into anything better than Florimon/Escobar as a hitter and his fielding currently isn't good enough to be a major league SS. Maybe he'll develop, maybe not.

[Jim Crikket]

Shortstops who can contribute with the bat seem to be becoming as rare as catchers that can do so. I wish I could disagree with stringer, above, but I really can't at this point. There are some guys who COULD develop in to long term solutions and Santana may be one of those. Goodrum has upside, but is certainly not a lock. I'm just not sure the Twins are much different than 75% of MLB teams in that respect. SS almost seems to be a position you just keep filling with young, strong armed, good-glove, salary-controlled players until you get lucky on someone who can field and also knows which end of the bat to grip.

 

Even using a high draft pick or big money international signing on a SS is no guarantee of developing a long term solution. The Astros have Carlos Correa and I think he'll stick at SS, but there are apparently a number of scouts who doubt it. Sano was a SS when he was signed by the Twins (tho I don't think anyone really believed he would stay at that position, even when he was 15 years old).

 

If Pinto can become an everyday catcher and provide offense from that position, I'll feel better about just putting the best defensive SS available on the field.

[Oxtung]

At this point does it really matter if we lose Diamond or Worley? Are they really ever going to be a part of the contending team next year? I certainly don't want to lose Parms for nothing because I can at least see him as a 4th OF and LH bench bat on a contending team which is not the case for Diamond or Worley. I even think that Colabello off the bench and occasional DH against lefties will be useful in the future. I would even consider switching out Pressly for Deduno, but Pressly has been shaky so far.

 

Interesting. Neither Colabello nor Parmelee have shown they can hit at the MLB level. Both Diamond and Worley have at least one very successful full season under their belt. Perhaps you will eventually be proven correct but at this point, if one were forced to pick, I think you have it backwards.

 

The Twins are going to be building for 2016 and 2017 seasons when I think they can make a run at getting to the World Series.

 

Let me just say off the bat that I don't disagree with your timeline, but it is amazing how the "future greatness" of the Twins keeps getting pushed off into the future farther and farther. Last season it was 2015-2016 and now it's 2016-2017.

 

I am a big human spaceflight fan and there is a saying, "A manned mission to Mars is always 30 years in the future."

 

I'm worried the Twins years to compete will turn into a similar paradigm.

[Brandon]

Based on the Spring Training starting lineups (if that means anything).

 

The Twins lineups have mostly been like this:

 

CF - Alex Pressley (1st game, Hicks led off, injured here and there since)

2B - Brian Dozier

1B - Joe Mauer

LF - Josh Willingham

RF - Oswaldo Arcia

3B - Trevor Plouffe

DH - varied a lot - Pinto, Kubel

C - Kurt Suzuki

SS - Escobar (Florimon has been injured)

 

Some have Oswaldo not starting with the team. I just don't see anyone else doing his 'floor' (.250 AVG 18 HR 150 K)...let alone better than that.

 

Kubel has looked terrible. Parmalee couldn't hit Arcia's floor right now, Mastroianni either.

 

I like this prediction / observation. I think the Twins pitching staff has the depth definitely and maybe the talent to be what is needed for a contending team. With the pitchers I can see the rotation being the 4 free agents (Nolasco, Hughes, Corriea, and Pelfry) any one of these guys can get hurt or be ineffective at the start of the season which is why we want all of the depth possible. I see us keeping Deduno as either the 5th starter likely or in the bullpen and the other pitcher is likely to be Worely or Diamond but it could also be neither. Neither one has overly impressed so far. Worely came in camp in shape but.... I can also see Guerrier making the team out of spring training. I guess the 3 bullpen arms to watch out for include Fien, Theilbar, and Pressly lets see who has a bad spring. Again the looser of the rotation battle is not guaranteed a bullpen spot.

 

On offense it comes down to can Willingham step up and hit .830 OPS? Can we find a solid leadoff hitter (Presley's to loose) who can at least get on base .340 or preferably .350 so Mauer can drive them in. can Dozier repeat last year? can Plouffe hit .750 OPS? Can RF and DH produce? (from Arcia, Colabello, Parmelee, Kubel, Hicks) If so we could have potentially enough offense to compete this year especially if we signed Drew for SS. there are probably too many ifs at this point since we lost Sano and the ability to redeploy Plouffe and Kubel is looking done so far.

 

Anyway you slice it we are close to being a .500 team and that is a huge improvement from last year.

[Thrylos]

My money's on Bartlett, who is the better bench bat.

 

That was the ghost of Bartlett's past bat. This spring training Bartlett cannot make contact even if the ball were sitting on a tee...

[Thrylos]

OK no problem. All I want is for the Twins to be open minded as to who the best players are. I doubt that either Flori or Escobar are the long term solution and hope Santana is...as to who makes the roster this year it really doesn't matter cause 78 wins is probably the best to hope for sad to say... But hope remains eternal and we all want the same thing...

 

The Twins said that Polanco will play full time SS this season. His contact and eye are better than almost all Twins' infielders (save Rosario, maybe.) This is the guy who could be the Twins next great SS, if his fielding holds up. He has made tremendous strides at fielding and it mostly is a range issue at this point.

[Jim Crikket]

The Twins said that Polanco will play full time SS this season. His contact and eye are better than almost all Twins' infielders (save Rosario, maybe.) This is the guy who could be the Twins next great SS, if his fielding holds up. He has made tremendous strides at fielding and it mostly is a range issue at this point.

 

I think Polanco's glove plays fine at SS. It's his arm that didn't seem as strong as other guys in CR last year. The Twins aren't giving up on him as a SS yet, though, that's true.