2014 MLB Draft Thread

twinsfanstreif · May 25, 2014

For those who want to draft a Brad Radke I say: "Patience, and draft him in the later rounds just where the real Brad Radke was drafted."

Because we can always draft Adam Johnson now!

cmb0252 · May 25, 2014

For those who want to draft a Brad Radke I say: "Patience, and draft him in the later rounds just where the real Brad Radke was drafted."

I agree. With the #5 pick we should be aiming for something a little higher.

cmb0252 · May 25, 2014

Because we can always draft Adam Johnson now!

All prospects have the chance to bust. We have seen time and time again the safest and quickness to the bigs flame out.

twinsfanstreif · May 25, 2014

I agree. With the #5 pick we should be aiming for something a little higher.

That's fine but no one has provided me with a better pitching option at #5 if the big 3 are gone. I like Nola or Freeland (leaning Freeland right now). If not a pitcher I like Jackson, Zimmer, or Turner (not a fan of Gordon, don't like the hit tool). Say the top 4 goes Aiken, Roden, Kolek, Jackson then we're left with a bunch of guys that everyone's gonna complain about. Either low upside, lack of control, iffy hit tool, etc. In that case who would everyone be ok with?

Twins Twerp · May 25, 2014

That's fine but no one has provided me with a better pitching option at #5 if the big 3 are gone. I like Nola or Freeland (leaning Freeland right now). If not a pitcher I like Jackson, Zimmer, or Turner (not a fan of Gordon, don't like the hit tool). Say the top 4 goes Aiken, Roden, Kolek, Jackson then we're left with a bunch of guys that everyone's gonna complain about. Either low upside, lack of control, iffy hit tool, etc. In that case who would everyone be ok with?

Gordon OR Nola. I (and most online scouts) would be ok with either. I want some drama though. I want stuff to get messed up with a curveball. I dont see the cubs going with jackson so we shall see.

nicksaviking · May 25, 2014

Who are we referring to though? If Aiken, Kolek, and Roden are off the board who else projects as an ace?

I like ceiling as much as the next guy but very few prospects a year have a high ceiling with low risk. It's the difference of a 200/1 odds to win $10,000 or 10/1 odds to win $1000. It's beginning to look just like last years #4 pick in a 3 man race. This year we have #5 pick this year in a 3, maybe 4 man race.

I'm much more interested in Holmes and Toussaint. Newcomb could bust but he does intrigue me and Freeland has grown on me more. I'd prefer all those guys over Nola.

As to the second part, that's what is wrong with the perception of Nola, he is not 20x more likely to succeed than the other guys. He's not even 2x more likely to succeed. Someone may be able to find the studies of HS arms vs college arms, but in the top 10 I think the percentage of success difference is something like 5-10%. That's not much, and it's surely not enough for me to take a low ceiling guy.

nicksaviking · May 25, 2014

Because we can always draft Adam Johnson now!

Adam Johnson was the safe college pick, he would be an argument AGAINST Nola. He busted just as hard as the half dozen HS arms picked after him.

twinsfanstreif · May 25, 2014

Gordon OR Nola. I (and most online scouts) would be ok with either. I want some drama though. I want stuff to get messed up with a curveball. I dont see the cubs going with jackson so we shall see.

I would love a curveball too. Though the Twins are usually not tight lipped about who they're after, the past 6 or so years have not been a surprise (except Levi Michael I guess). So there's been a ton of chatter about the Twins being in on Gordon and Nola and aside from someone falling we should probably expect either one. I like Nola over Gordon, I just have a bad feeling about Gordon, maybe it's just my gut but he reminds me too much of Tim Beckham. I feel like there's a good chance I'm gonna have to be ok with Gordon though, if we go that way I hope I'm wrong and he turns out to be Jeter!

diehardtwinsfan · May 25, 2014

Nola really has no projection left. Freeland has some but I doubt either becomes #2 starters. Law saw Nola yesterday and here is what he said:

"I don't see No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside with Nola -- what you see here is what you'll get. But I also think you could sign him, run him right out to Double-A and get him on your major league roster by next April."

Top 5 picks should have higher ceilings. No matter how advanced a pitcher is you can't bank on them being safe. Just ask the Mariners how well that turned out after using the #2 overall pick on Hultzen in 2011.

After reading these threads, I'm not as down on Nola as I once was. That said, I'm quite happy to be typing that the Twins have no room for him on the roster next April... or the April after that. I think I'd rather go high upside with the pick, even if it fails... that might be the wrong answer 10 years from now, but given the org needs, I think BPA should have considerable upside.

twinsfanstreif · May 25, 2014

Can we focus on the important things? We have an opportunity to, at some point, draft Kyle Gibson - C from Louisville. He's not that good (he didn't hit a HR in college) but if he were to make it we would be able to have Kyle Gibson pitching to Kyle Gibson! It's a chance to make history people!

twinsfan34 · May 25, 2014

Nola really has no projection left. Freeland has some but I doubt either becomes #2 starters. Law saw Nola yesterday and here is what he said:

"I don't see No. 1 or No. 2 starter upside with Nola -- what you see here is what you'll get. But I also think you could sign him, run him right out to Double-A and get him on your major league roster by next April."

Top 5 picks should have higher ceilings. No matter how advanced a pitcher is you can't bank on them being safe. Just ask the Mariners how well that turned out after using the #2 overall pick on Hultzen in 2011.

Just a little food for thought:

Danny Hultzen has a torn labrun and a torn rotator cuff. He was dominating AAA before those injuries.

So hard to 'knock' a guy who has those kind of injuries - he may be 7-1 with a 2.20 ERA this year if healthy for all we know. He has better stuff than Mark Buerhle and that's what he's doing. Plus he's in a pitcher's park in Seattle...so maybe even better numbers.

Anyway.

Radke is a HORRIBLE comp to Nola. Radke was a high school pitcher and learned a changeup with the Twins. Radke was also an 8th round selection out of HS. Note: Radke's career ended due to a torn labrum ate age 33 (see Hultzen injury). Aaron Nola has a different pitch arsenal and is a 3 year dominant pitcher in the #1 conference in NCAA. Arguably the strongest 'non-pro' (amateur) competition in the world. He's a top 15 pick at worst in a STRONG pitching draft. As far as comparing to Radke: They're right handed, they're white, they don't throw 100 MPH, they have pretty good control, then it stops. Totally different pitchers.

Then there's pitching style/delivery. Aaron Nola's better comp would be Chris Sale. Similar delivery, just 2-3 mph difference. Ball has lots of tail on it.

Then pitch repertoire. Think of pitchers with a fastball with as much movement as Nola. Radke doesn't come to mind. Nola is a 4S, 2S with a lot of tail, Curve...then developmental change, slider. Maybe he adds a cutter as well. Radke was spot 4S and changeup...and kinda added some other stuff as he went through the bigs.

As far as the Twins selecting Nola at #5...not overly excited about the pick - but I don't know, depends on who's available elsewise. I was on the Koleck bandwagon last year. I find it interesting that he hasn't developed a 2nd pitch yet. As a high school pitcher, who was not a 'top prospect' by any means, I was directed to not tinker much with curve/slider for 'arm health' reasons. Maybe that's what's going on there - but you'd think he'd try to add a pitch given the chance to be drafted as high as he is. I could see a 87-89 MPH slider added. I don't even see mention of a 2-seamer in many scouting reports. So a little less excited about Koleck from the few clips I've watched and the lack of any secondary pitches being 'raved' about or called 'projectable' by scouts.

I'm a little worried about the number of 130 pitch games Rodon has pitched the past 3 years. Still don't think he makes it to #5.

Glad Hoffmann got hurt for the sake of the Twins picking him at #5. Talk about a guy who can't miss bats and walks guys and weighs only 180 lbs at 6'4"!!

As far as Gordon...will he really be better than Santana, Polanco, Goodrum, Vielma...?

If we want GG defense with 40-50 SB speed, it's Vielma. But can he hit .250+?

Polanco, he'll hit .280+ with great plate discipline. But will he average 25+ Errors a season?

Satana, he'll hit as well...not as great plate discipline, 30+ SB. How's his defense?

Goodrum, more similar to Vielma, but not GG defense. How much will he hit?

What's the best projection of Nick Gordon?? Would he be as fast as his brother (Dee)? Not even close - his brother is lightning. sub 4.0 to first. Nick is 4.1-4.3. 60 yd - 6.6 sec.

How about defense? Is he even as good as his brother defensively?

I just don't know how you pick a SS at #5, who best case scenario projects to .285 with 2 HR and 30 SB a season while his defense is not as much as Vielma.

What's Gordon's ceiling? .300? 8 HR? 40 SB? He's not as fast as Dee - let's not get that mixed up. He's a 65 speed and the 8 HR is probably guessing way too much for a 5'11 165 guy. His 'hit' projects as a 55 though, so that's .262-270-ish. His best tool is his arm, projected at '70'... That's a #5 pick?

Those projection are in place for him getting stronger...

Unless I'm missing something. That seems a bit high for a #5 pick and one who is 4+ years away from the pro's with similar prospects in our system.

The Twins are .500 this year and they have Meyer, May, Buxton, Sano, and Rosario possibly helping the team by 2015. Then the wave of pitching at A/A+ level.

Maybe Twins, etc are hyping him up so we can get a different player. He's an interesting scenario by a Cubs writer, who projects Pentecost for an underslot deal.

Honestly, I'd rather have JP Crawford, selected by the Phillies last year #21 overall instead. Plate discipline, 70 grade hit tool, etc.

This draft is so weird to me. The past 2 drafts, I had my favorites and this year. I don't know. Maybe it's because the position players seem like reaches this year because the pitching is so much better?

twinsfanstreif · May 25, 2014

Just a little food for thought:
Danny Hultzen has a torn labrun and a torn rotator cuff. He was dominating AAA before those injuries.

So hard to 'knock' a guy who has those kind of injuries - he may be 7-1 with a 2.20 ERA this year if healthy for all we know. He has better stuff than Mark Buerhle and that's what he's doing. Plus he's in a pitcher's park in Seattle...so maybe even better numbers.

Anyway.

Radke is a HORRIBLE comp to Nola. Radke was a high school pitcher and learned a changeup with the Twins. Radke was also an 8th round selection out of HS. Note: Radke's career ended due to a torn labrum ate age 33 (see Hultzen injury). Aaron Nola has a different pitch arsenal and is a 3 year dominant pitcher in the #1 conference in NCAA. Arguably the strongest 'non-pro' (amateur) competition in the world. He's a top 15 pick at worst in a STRONG pitching draft. As far as comparing to Radke: They're right handed, they're white, they don't throw 100 MPH, they have pretty good control, then it stops. Totally different pitchers.

Then there's pitching style/delivery. Aaron Nola's better comp would be Chris Sale. Similar delivery, just 2-3 mph difference. Ball has lots of tail on it.

Then pitch repertoire. Think of pitchers with a fastball with as much movement as Nola. Radke doesn't come to mind. Nola is a 4S, 2S with a lot of tail, Curve...then developmental change, slider. Maybe he adds a cutter as well. Radke was spot 4S and changeup...and kinda added some other stuff as he went through the bigs.

As far as the Twins selecting Nola at #5...not overly excited about the pick - but I don't know, depends on who's available elsewise. I was on the Koleck bandwagon last year. I find it interesting that he hasn't developed a 2nd pitch yet. As a high school pitcher, who was not a 'top prospect' by any means, I was directed to not tinker much with curve/slider for 'arm health' reasons. Maybe that's what's going on there - but you'd think he'd try to add a pitch given the chance to be drafted as high as he is. I could see a 87-89 MPH slider added. I don't even see mention of a 2-seamer in many scouting reports. So a little less excited about Koleck from the few clips I've watched and the lack of any secondary pitches being 'raved' about or called 'projectable' by scouts.

I'm a little worried about the number of 130 pitch games Rodon has pitched the past 3 years. Still don't think he makes it to #5.

Glad Hoffmann got hurt for the sake of the Twins picking him at #5. Talk about a guy who can't miss bats and walks guys and weighs only 180 lbs at 6'4"!!

As far as Gordon...will he really be better than Santana, Polanco, Goodrum, Vielma...?

If we want GG defense with 40-50 SB speed, it's Vielma. But can he hit .250+?
Polanco, he'll hit .280+ with great plate discipline. But will he average 25+ Errors a season?
Satana, he'll hit as well...not as great plate discipline, 30+ SB. How's his defense?
Goodrum, more similar to Vielma, but not GG defense. How much will he hit?

What's the best projection of Nick Gordon?? Would he be as fast as his brother (Dee)? Not even close - his brother is lightning. sub 4.0 to first. Nick is 4.1-4.3. 60 yd - 6.6 sec.
How about defense? Is he even as good as his brother defensively?

I just don't know how you pick a SS at #5, who best case scenario projects to .285 with 2 HR and 30 SB a season while his defense is not as much as Vielma.

What's Gordon's ceiling? .300? 8 HR? 40 SB? He's not as fast as Dee - let's not get that mixed up. He's a 65 speed and the 8 HR is probably guessing way too much for a 5'11 165 guy. His 'hit' projects as a 55 though, so that's .262-270-ish. His best tool is his arm, projected at '70'... That's a #5 pick?

Those projection are in place for him getting stronger...

Unless I'm missing something. That seems a bit high for a #5 pick and one who is 4+ years away from the pro's with similar prospects in our system.

The Twins are .500 this year and they have Meyer, May, Buxton, Sano, and Rosario possibly helping the team by 2015. Then the wave of pitching at A/A+ level.

Maybe Twins, etc are hyping him up so we can get a different player. He's an interesting scenario by a Cubs writer, who projects Pentecost for an underslot deal.

Honestly, I'd rather have JP Crawford, selected by the Phillies last year #21 overall instead. Plate discipline, 70 grade hit tool, etc.

This draft is so weird to me. The past 2 drafts, I had my favorites and this year. I don't know. Maybe it's because the position players seem like reaches this year because the pitching is so much better?

I was more comparing Nola to Radke in the majors, not as a draftee. Honestly I could find very little video on Radke and I wasn't doing any analysis when he was playing. I thought Radke had a very versatile arsenal but I guess not. If it helps I like Nola better than a Radke but I was making the point that a guy doesn't have to blow people away to be really good. As far as this draft goes I agree, I'm just not seeing the top end quality as in years past, many of these guys have far to many question marks than I am comfortable with and I'm just not seeing the upside with most of them that would be there at #5

cmb0252 · May 25, 2014

Just a little food for thought:
Danny Hultzen has a torn labrun and a torn rotator cuff. He was dominating AAA before those injuries.

So hard to 'knock' a guy who has those kind of injuries - he may be 7-1 with a 2.20 ERA this year if healthy for all we know. He has better stuff than Mark Buerhle and that's what he's doing. Plus he's in a pitcher's park in Seattle...so maybe even better numbers.

Anyway.

Radke is a HORRIBLE comp to Nola. Radke was a high school pitcher and learned a changeup with the Twins. Radke was also an 8th round selection out of HS. Note: Radke's career ended due to a torn labrum ate age 33 (see Hultzen injury). Aaron Nola has a different pitch arsenal and is a 3 year dominant pitcher in the #1 conference in NCAA. Arguably the strongest 'non-pro' (amateur) competition in the world. He's a top 15 pick at worst in a STRONG pitching draft. As far as comparing to Radke: They're right handed, they're white, they don't throw 100 MPH, they have pretty good control, then it stops. Totally different pitchers.

Then there's pitching style/delivery. Aaron Nola's better comp would be Chris Sale. Similar delivery, just 2-3 mph difference. Ball has lots of tail on it.

Then pitch repertoire. Think of pitchers with a fastball with as much movement as Nola. Radke doesn't come to mind. Nola is a 4S, 2S with a lot of tail, Curve...then developmental change, slider. Maybe he adds a cutter as well. Radke was spot 4S and changeup...and kinda added some other stuff as he went through the bigs.

As far as the Twins selecting Nola at #5...not overly excited about the pick - but I don't know, depends on who's available elsewise. I was on the Koleck bandwagon last year. I find it interesting that he hasn't developed a 2nd pitch yet. As a high school pitcher, who was not a 'top prospect' by any means, I was directed to not tinker much with curve/slider for 'arm health' reasons. Maybe that's what's going on there - but you'd think he'd try to add a pitch given the chance to be drafted as high as he is. I could see a 87-89 MPH slider added. I don't even see mention of a 2-seamer in many scouting reports. So a little less excited about Koleck from the few clips I've watched and the lack of any secondary pitches being 'raved' about or called 'projectable' by scouts.

I'm a little worried about the number of 130 pitch games Rodon has pitched the past 3 years. Still don't think he makes it to #5.

Glad Hoffmann got hurt for the sake of the Twins picking him at #5. Talk about a guy who can't miss bats and walks guys and weighs only 180 lbs at 6'4"!!

As far as Gordon...will he really be better than Santana, Polanco, Goodrum, Vielma...?

If we want GG defense with 40-50 SB speed, it's Vielma. But can he hit .250+?
Polanco, he'll hit .280+ with great plate discipline. But will he average 25+ Errors a season?
Satana, he'll hit as well...not as great plate discipline, 30+ SB. How's his defense?
Goodrum, more similar to Vielma, but not GG defense. How much will he hit?

What's the best projection of Nick Gordon?? Would he be as fast as his brother (Dee)? Not even close - his brother is lightning. sub 4.0 to first. Nick is 4.1-4.3. 60 yd - 6.6 sec.
How about defense? Is he even as good as his brother defensively?

I just don't know how you pick a SS at #5, who best case scenario projects to .285 with 2 HR and 30 SB a season while his defense is not as much as Vielma.

What's Gordon's ceiling? .300? 8 HR? 40 SB? He's not as fast as Dee - let's not get that mixed up. He's a 65 speed and the 8 HR is probably guessing way too much for a 5'11 165 guy. His 'hit' projects as a 55 though, so that's .262-270-ish. His best tool is his arm, projected at '70'... That's a #5 pick?

Those projection are in place for him getting stronger...

Unless I'm missing something. That seems a bit high for a #5 pick and one who is 4+ years away from the pro's with similar prospects in our system.

The Twins are .500 this year and they have Meyer, May, Buxton, Sano, and Rosario possibly helping the team by 2015. Then the wave of pitching at A/A+ level.

Maybe Twins, etc are hyping him up so we can get a different player. He's an interesting scenario by a Cubs writer, who projects Pentecost for an underslot deal.

Honestly, I'd rather have JP Crawford, selected by the Phillies last year #21 overall instead. Plate discipline, 70 grade hit tool, etc.

This draft is so weird to me. The past 2 drafts, I had my favorites and this year. I don't know. Maybe it's because the position players seem like reaches this year because the pitching is so much better?

Gordon is 6'1 and about 180 lbs with room still to fill out. While Dee is faster than his brother he never had the hands/feel/arm for short stop. Nick has all those things and is profiled to be a plus defender. I think his upside is teens HRs, ~.280 BA, and 30 SBs with elite SS defense. Also, Law/Crawford pegged him as the safest HS position player for whatever that is worth.

As for the Hultzen comparison the point was both of their value is linked to quickness to the bigs. Hultzen was selected before more elite prospects because he was safe/quick to the bigs. Once he got injured that negates that added value.

gunnarthor · May 25, 2014

I think the biggest problem with pro-Nola and anti-Nola groups are how they see him. I like him because I think he can be a legit #2 starter. If Law is right and he is a safe #3 I don't want him at five. But his predicted strike out numbers don't worry me.

gunnarthor · May 25, 2014

For those who want to draft a Brad Radke I say: "Patience, and draft him in the later rounds just where the real Brad Radke was drafted."

The other way of looking at that would be that Radke would be the third overall pick of the 1991 draft if it was redone, after Manny and Nomar. Incidentally, the eight round of that draft had four players amass more than 20 career WAR.

twinsfan34 · May 25, 2014

Yea, I'm with you guys on Gordon...if he can well, be something special. But it seems more like he's in consideration as a 'safe projection'...like...we're pretty sure he can be this - albeit it's not really special. Versus "we have no idea" type of scenario that seems to be attached to many pitchers. Maybe while Nola is getting more hype as high as #4 and #5.

Just don't like a ceiling .270 hitter with 3-8 HR potential for a #5 pick. I don't care if he catches every ball West of 2nd base.

I can't see 180 lbs on that guy yet...Dee is 165 soaking wet and they look similar. Tom was 5'9" 160 until his mid 30's when he started to put on some weight.

I'd like to think at #5...we could 'fish' for something closer to a .300 hitter and 25 HR from #5 for a hitter (Jackson?) OR a pitcher who can have a career ERA at 3.5 or lower with a potential 180+ K type of stuff (Who?).

This is supposed to be a strong draft too...compared to last year.

Okie · May 25, 2014

I know it's not popular, but why aren't we at least considering going under-slot with Hoffman at 5? With how well pitchers can come back from TJ nowadays, I would rather take a chance on Hoffman than make the "safe" pick with someone like Nola.

markos · May 26, 2014

This is supposed to be a strong draft too...compared to last year.

I think this strength of this draft is its depth, rather than the high end talent. Jim Callis stated last week that Alex Jackson and Nick Gordon (the top two HS position players) would have slid in at #7 (behind Austin Meadows) and #9 (ahead of Reese McGuire) respectively. Also, I read earlier that the top talent in this year's draft (Rodon, Kolek and Aiken) all grade out slightly behind the big 3 from last year (Gray, Appel and Bryant).

cmb0252 · May 26, 2014

We are 10 days away from the mlb draft!

Here is crawford's new big board:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/board-2014-volume-vi/

maxisagod · May 27, 2014

We are 10 days away from the mlb draft!

Here is crawford's new big board:

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/board-2014-volume-vi/

Law has a new mock up insider only:

Top 3 pitchers go 1,2,3. Cubs go off the board looking for a deal. Twins still heaving on Gordon. Notes that assumes top 3 pitchers are gone.

InfraRen · May 27, 2014

Keith Law's newest mock came out today. Has Twins taking Nick Gordon in latest mock. Aiken/Rodon/Kolek/Conforto 1-4.

About Twins also said:

"They're heavy on Gordon, with Aaron Nola and Sean Newcomb also strong contenders."

He also said the Marlins are very dialed in on Rodon if he's there, owner loves him. Says Chi Sox have been on Kolek for "over a month now."

cmb0252 · May 27, 2014

Callis wrote an article on the SS in this draft class:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/nick-gordon-trea-turner-headline-drafts-top-middle-infielders?ymd=20140527&content_id=77000486&vkey=news_mlb

twinsfanstreif · May 27, 2014

In the Nola debate I'm surprised that Andrew Heaney has not come up, I realize that he's a different prospect but other than being left handed his draft profile is similar to Nola. Low 90s FB with movement, killer curve (out pitch), developing change, smooth delivery. Nola's profile actually sounds a little better and Heaney's dominating in AAA right now. Just a thought

nicksaviking · May 27, 2014

I know it's not popular, but why aren't we at least considering going under-slot with Hoffman at 5? With how well pitchers can come back from TJ nowadays, I would rather take a chance on Hoffman than make the "safe" pick with someone like Nola.

Because there's not guarantee that there will be a tough-sign HS kid available with the teams 2nd pick. 12 teams have two picks before the Twins have theirs, two teams have three picks and one team has four. The Twins aren't likely to get the guy they may want to target.

InfraRen · May 27, 2014

Callis wrote an article on the SS in this draft class:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/nick-gordon-trea-turner-headline-drafts-top-middle-infielders?ymd=20140527&content_id=77000486&vkey=news_mlb

If "big 3" pitchers are gone, I'm fully on board with Gordon at 5. I'm good with Jackson there as well.

nicksaviking · May 27, 2014

I think my wishlist is

Aiken

Rodon

Kolek

Jackson

Holmes

Toussaint

Gordon

Newcomb

But those last five are pretty close to a push for me.

InfraRen · May 27, 2014

Ooh, I forgot about Touki. When you're drafting a guy that won't be here for 3-5 years anyways, his upside is very intriguing.

InfraRen · May 27, 2014

Man has Jacob Gatewood "fallen" - not even in Law's first round mock:

keithlaw @keithlaw

25-40 range. “@ryan_holloway: @keithlaw Do you see Gatewood going in the comp round now?”

InfraRen · May 27, 2014

Also, a note on Hoffman (and the Twins):

"The Jays grabbing Hoffman -- who had Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago -- is another strong consensus in the industry, like the Twins with Nick Gordon."

cmb0252 · May 27, 2014

Also, a note on Hoffman (and the Twins):

"The Jays grabbing Hoffman -- who had Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago -- is another strong consensus in the industry, like the Twins with Nick Gordon."

Everyone seems to have Gordon pegged for the Twins pick.

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