2014 MLB Draft Thread

[kab21]

Near lock may be rich. I am guessing polanco was a near lock as well. He went from defensive whiz, rated our best defensive infielder before playing a game according to baseball america, to no chance of sticking at ss in avery quick timeframe

 

Among the guys likely to be there, i like touki or jackson

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/243693621.html

 

Not sure if you have noticed but Polanco is back at SS. Him moving off of SS had to do with two things: A 2nd SS with a better arm on the same team and Polanco having an average arm. He's back at SS now because his bat is much better than Goodrum's currently and he has a much better chance at making the MLB.

 

Gordon has a great arm. He is incredibly athletic and will be even if gains 20 lbs. He also gets good marks on his current defense. He's about as close of a lock to stay at SS as any SS that is getting drafted. As far as I can tell the only SS that you would ever be in favor of the Twins drafting is a 25+ HR hitter that is almost a guarantee to move off of the position.

[tobi0040]

Not sure if you have noticed but Polanco is back at SS. Him moving off of SS had to do with two things: A 2nd SS with a better arm on the same team and Polanco having an average arm. He's back at SS now because his bat is much better than Goodrum's currently and he has a much better chance at making the MLB.

 

Gordon has a great arm. He is incredibly athletic and will be even if gains 20 lbs. He also gets good marks on his current defense. He's about as close of a lock to stay at SS as any SS that is getting drafted. As far as I can tell the only SS that you would ever be in favor of the Twins drafting is a 25+ HR hitter that is almost a guarantee to move off of the position.

 

I don't know of anyone in the Twins organization that has a belief that Polanco will be a short stop for the Twins. Here is a direct comment from Nick Nelson "there's almost no chance he'll play short regularly in the majors".

 

All I am saying is Gordon at #5 has risks that someone like Jackson does not. Jackson's bat and power potential profiles at a number of positions. Nobody is saying Gordon's bat does.

 

I don't need a SS that will hit 25 HR. I never said that. Just highlighting risks associated with this pick at #5. If you can take an 18 year old pitcher with two plus pitches or the best power bat in the draft, that risk/reward trade off seems better to me.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

BA released their Top 100.

 

Interesting that Freeland is #5. It was about three weeks ago that I put him in the mix.

[tobi0040]

BA released their Top 100.

 

Interesting that Freeland is #5. It was about three weeks ago that I put him in the mix.

 

A 21.3 K to BB ratio will do that (so far this year).

 

He looks real good. He does not face the same competition as the others, but his numbers in the Cape Cod league were incredible, 48 IP, 1.88 ERA, 60 K, 5 BB

 

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304049904579518121397407590

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know of anyone in the Twins organization that has a belief that Polanco will be a short stop for the Twins. Here is a direct comment from Nick Nelson "there's almost no chance he'll play short regularly in the majors".

 

All I am saying is Gordon at #5 has risks that someone like Jackson does not. Jackson's bat and power potential profiles at a number of positions. Nobody is saying Gordon's bat does.

 

I don't need a SS that will hit 25 HR. I never said that. Just highlighting risks associated with this pick at #5. If you can take an 18 year old pitcher with two plus pitches or the best power bat in the draft, that risk/reward trade off seems better to me.

 

SS, 2B, CF.....his bat projects to those three, as you've pointed out many times, SS often move to those positions.

[gunnarthor]

BA released their Top 100.

 

Interesting that Freeland is #5. It was about three weeks ago that I put him in the mix.

From Mayo/Callis: "Freeland scuffled at times during his first two years at Evansville, going a combined 8-13 with a 4.44 ERA, before breaking out in the Cape Cod League last summer. He led college baseball's top summer league in strikeouts (48) and K-to-BB ratio (48-to-4), as hitters had trouble dealing with his fastball and slider. The same has been true this spring, when he has dominated once again. Batters react to Freeland's fastball as if he's throwing harder than 90-93 mph, because he has some deception in his delivery and the pitch has heavy life, and he can reach 95-96. He throws a true slider in the low 80s and can turn it into more of a mid-80s cutter at times. He'll also display an average changeup at times, getting good sink on it.

Freeland throws from a lower arm angle and features more effort in his delivery than scouts like to see in a starter. But he should be able to work out of a rotation in pro ball because he has two swing-and-miss pitches and throws strikes."

 

 

 

Interesting pick. He's a lefty as well. I'd be ok with that.

[tobi0040]

SS, 2B, CF.....his bat projects to those three, as you've pointed out many times, SS often move to those positions.

 

2B and CF are not exactly organizational priorities at the moment.

[cmb0252]

BA released their Top 100.

 

Interesting that Freeland is #5. It was about three weeks ago that I put him in the mix.

 

Very odd list...Freeland at #5, Hoffman/Fedde still in the top 10, Conforto ahead of Zimmer/Holmes. I just can't figure out this list.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Very odd list...Freeland at #5, Hoffman/Fedde still in the top 10, Conforto ahead of Zimmer/Holmes. I just can't figure out this list.

 

Hopefully some of those questions are answered in their chat.

[Mike Sixel]

2B and CF are not exactly organizational priorities at the moment.

 

They might be in 4-5 years, when a HS kid will be ready. And your point was, that his bat does not project to any position other than SS, and I was pointing out that wasn't true.

[Mike Sixel]

Either way, I've lost interest in arguing with you over Gordon. You don't want him. I would be good with the choice, neither of us is changing our mind.

[tobi0040]

Either way, I've lost interest in arguing with you over Gordon. You don't want him. I would be good with the choice, neither of us is changing our mind.

 

But Terry will listen to me and not you.

[cmb0252]

A few questions from BA's draft chat:

 

 

• Kyle Freeland keeps climbing higher and higher. Any chance at him going 1st overall?
  

John Manuel: I have asked that very question myself and been told he is not in the mix for that selection. I humbly believe that he should be; I suppose there's actually nothing humble about saying that. But the stuff is outstanding, as is the performance. But I think his track record isn't long enough to get him into that mix. I do think we're a bit higher on him than the entire industry is, but I am OK with that.

 

• Who makes it to MLB the fastest out of this draft? Rodon? Nola?
  

Clint Longenecker: They are contenders, though Rodon will have to improve his command, particularly of his fastball, and continue to develop his changeup. I spoke with an evaluator who suggested another pitcher for this category, LHP Kyle Freeland. He said that you could stick him in the major league pen in August with his plus fastball-slider combo and at least plus command.

 

• What separates Alex Jackson from the trio of pitchers being considered at 1/1? If I were the Astros, I think I'd take the potential middle of the order bat and use the pitching depth of the draft to build up my pitching.
  

John Manuel: There's some merit to this approach. Jackson is the best power hitter in this draft; his 47th homer the other day tied the San Diego section record, and he did it in a dead-bat era. SD has had some fair players over the years as well. If you thought Jackson could remain a catcher and would not lag behind defensively, I think the Astros would seriously consider it. I will say historically, position players at the top of drafts have out-performed pitchers at the top. If the Astros do take a hitter No. 1, I think it would be Jackson.

 

• Which high school and college hitters have the best bat speed this year?
  

Clint Longenecker: Josh, great question! From the high school side Alex Jackson, Michael Chavis, Michael Gettys and Monte Harrison are in the discussion for some of the best bat speed.

 

• With Hoffman and Fedde injured, you still have them pretty high. Do you think they will actually be drafted as high as ranked or do you think they will get the money associated with the slots they are ranked here?
  
• John Manuel: The Fedde TJ happened after that list went to press; Hoffman had been adjusted down a tad. We decided not to change the list from what went into the print edition to avoid confusion and having different lists. The final BA 500 on May 28 may tweak that top 100 order some but not too drastically. We'll have more information presumably at that time, though, so it's natural that some things could change. I still think both players will go in the first or supplemental first, as Sean Manaea and Kyle Gibson and other injured players have gone before. Andrew Brackman's another example of a player who needed Tommy John surgery and was a first-rounder anyway. He's the worst-case scenario; a lot of the other TJ guys still went on to successful careers. So I do think they'll go out high, particularly to a team or teams with extra picks.
  
• 
  

Full chat here:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1400080672

[twinsfanstreif]

I've been pretty high on Freeland over the past couple of weeks after some amature YouTube scouting. I would be ecstatic with him at #5.

[kab21]

2B and CF are not exactly organizational priorities at the moment.

 

The argument to take Gordon should not be because the Twins need a SS but rather that he is in a virtual tie for BPA. Unfortunately there is a big drop after the top 3 pitchers. I think we are talking about a player with an All-star ceiling.

[cmb0252]

The argument to take Gordon should not be because the Twins need a SS but rather that he is in a virtual tie for BPA. Unfortunately there is a big drop after the top 3 pitchers. I think we are talking about a player with an All-star ceiling.

 

Well put. If the Twins take him at 5 it is because he is the highest rated player on their bored. The fact he plays a position of need is just a bonus. Definitely has the ceiling of an all-star.

[cmb0252]

I've been pretty high on Freeland over the past couple of weeks after some amature YouTube scouting. I would be ecstatic with him at #5.

 

While I will never complain about drafting a lefty I still have about 8 players ahead of him.

[Lonestar]

Well put. If the Twins take him at 5 it is because he is the highest rated player on their bored. The fact he plays a position of need is just a bonus. Definitely has the ceiling of an all-star.

I am just morbidly curious to hear a long-time scout compare him to Barry Larkin or Roberto Alomar offensively. Those two went on to have HoF careers -- I don't mean to make that comparison. But what were their hit/on-base tools like at 18? What were their projections like?

[maxisagod]

Matt Garrioch at Minorleagueball.com has been writing regional breakdowns and rankings of draft eligible players. It's alway fun learning names of Puerto Ricans or Hawaiians that have a load of talent but limited exposure. Or Georgians that the Twins seem to focus on. He also doesn't follow the industry when it comes to rankings. Here is his Florida list:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/5/14/5711430/2014-mlb-draft-florida-region

 

A few Highlights:

He ranks Touki Toussaint #1.

Call's Gordon a "near lock to stay at SS" and "a quick Bat".

Thinks Luke Weaver is a mid rotation starter.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Definitely a good resource. As far as Puerto Rico goes, Twins not considering anyone from there in Top 10 rounds.

[maxisagod]

Definitely a good resource. As far as Puerto Rico goes, Twins not considering anyone from there in Top 10 rounds.

 

Not even Alexis Pantojas?!? The kid looks like he could be a steal in the 4th round. Here is a month old free article about him from Perfect Game:

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9734

 

At the end of the article David Rawnsley compares Pantojas defense with Gordon and Milton Ramos. Good read.

[Willihammer]

Once again, I know HS batting stats are "worthless" but, I'll bring a few numbers to the conversation. Through April Gordon batted .508 with 9 doubles and 5 HRs (25 games) according to this: http://www.maxpreps.com/news/m79CgY2450eig_FL-t3kqw/nick-gordon,-daz-cameron-and-other-top-rated-sons-of-former-mlb-players.htm

 

Good, but still not in Jackson or Chavis territory. I can't help but wonder if there's a worthwhile gamble in trying to convert a player with a more proven bat - Chavis, specifically, into a SS (or catcher), rather than cross your fingers and count on development bringing Gordon's bat up closer to their levels.

[tobi0040]

Once again, I know HS batting stats are "worthless" but, I'll bring a few numbers to the conversation. Through April Gordon batted .508 with 9 doubles and 5 HRs (25 games) according to this: http://www.maxpreps.com/news/m79CgY2450eig_FL-t3kqw/nick-gordon,-daz-cameron-and-other-top-rated-sons-of-former-mlb-players.htm

 

Good, but still not in Jackson or Chavis territory. I can't help but wonder if there's a worthwhile gamble in trying to convert a player with a more proven bat - Chavis, specifically, into a SS (or catcher), rather than cross your fingers and count on development bringing Gordon's bat up closer to their levels.

 

Without a doubt, Jackson is the best HS bat in this class. Probably the best power potential of any bat in the draft. If you get that at #5 you should be happy.

 

If Kolek, Rodon, and Aiken are gone, I would love to add the upside of Jackson, Touki, or Freeland.

 

 

Alex Jackson is a 2014 C/3B/OF with a 6-2 210 lb. frame from Escondido, CA who attends Rancho Bernardo HS. Outstanding athletic build, unique blend of strength and explosive looseness. Right handed hitter, gets coiled and moves into contact, calm load and approach, very aggressive swing with plus/plus bat speed, easy over the fence power, ball explodes off the barrel, very high ceiling offensive tools. 6.83 runner, arm strength stands out both in the outfield and behind the plate, very solid mechanics behind the plate, quick feet and quick exchange, can show either elite arm strength or elite pop times. Highest level right field tools on defense should he end up there, also has experience at third base. Top ranked player in the 2014 class, tools are eye opening and performs at a very high level. Verbal commitment to Oregon. Selected to the Perfect Game All-American Classic.

[Mike Sixel]

KLAW's mock draft is up today:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/draft/mock/?season=2014&version=1&source=Keith-Law-Mock-Draft

 

Jackson goes 2nd, the usual suspects go 1-4......Twins take Gordon.

[gunnarthor]

That would be a really surprising draft to me - not Gordon but Jackson going 2nd. I can't see cheap Miami nabbing a Boras client when they've got a bunch of big time pitching prospects to go with as well as local talent that could be taken there for small savings. They also have a few extra picks in the 30-40 range and I'm sure Boras would want some of that money to go to his guy.

[Mike Sixel]

Law says Miami wants bats. They have 4 of the first 43 picks.......and lots of money to work with because of that, among other things, but I'm trying to be respectful of insider content....

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Law also suggest Gatewood could be in play for an underslot deal... or in plat at #46 for an overslot deal.

[maxisagod]

The downside with having the White Sox draft just before us, is one of the guys I'll be rooting for the Twins to get, will go to them, at which point 'll have to start rooting against him.

Kolek at 3 would suck and I wish Hoffman had been healthly for the draft.

[cmb0252]

Once you see Law doing a mock you know the draft isn't far away. Nothing really new with the Twins being interested in Gordon, Jackson, and Nola but the fact the Twins might be in on Gatewood under slot at #5 is a bomb shell. Especially since he doesn't have anyone else taking him in the first round. A Gordon under slot at #5 and Gatewood over slot at #46 would be a dream draft.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

A Gordon under slot at #5 and Gatewood over slot at #46 would be a dream draft.

 

I'd go to bed very happy if that's how Thursday played out. But I'd wake up Friday hoping that it's heavy on arms. It would be hard to pass on Gatewood though, and I know the Twins had him in the Top 10 as recently as a couple of months ago.