2014 MLB Draft Thread

[tobi0040]

I would hesitate to equate signing a player under slot with assuming that player was not the best player available. Looking back at the past two drafts, lots of top-20 picks signed under slot even though there was no question about the legitimacy of the pick. Case in point: Jonathan Gray was widely assumed to be a top-3 talent, but he still signed for over 800K less than slot (and only $300K more than Kohl Stewart signed with the Twins). From a negotiating standpoint, most of these players will have very little leverage once they are drafted. College pitchers and high school players in particular have very little to gain but a lot to lose by arguing over a few hundred thousand dollars on a $3+ million deal. If they drafted someone like Gordon, Jackson, Hoffman or Holmes, I would not be surprised if they were able to sign them slightly under the slot value.

 

However, I too will be extremely disappointed if the Twins used the #5 pick to draft someone in the 20+ range and signed him for significantly under slot.

 

Just a verbiage issue then. Almost every pick signs for less than the slot. Buxton left $200K on the table. Even Mark Appel signed for $6.35M at 1-1, which was 18% below slot. When people use the term "below slot", it usually implies they are taking a lesser player in order to save money and use it on their next pick. The Royals for example at #8 last year. They signed Dozier for $2.2M, which gave them an additional $940K to take Mannea later.

[Lonestar]

If they sign their 1-5 pick, it's not as if they are drafting Ben Revere. A lot of guys are signed below slot because the slots are artificial. They are just a way of quantifying spending limits.

[tobi0040]

Why is the recent draft have these top tiers that our teams keep missing on?! NFL draft is supposedly top 7 strong (Vikings draft 8th), last year's MLB draft's top tier was 3 deep, of course the Twins had the 4th pick. This year the same thing. Top Tier is 4, maybe 3 now with Hoffman banged up, but the Twins draft 5th.

 

A must add to this is the 1992 NBA draft. See Shaq and Alonzo, we get Christian Laettner #3.

[gunnarthor]

Why is the recent draft have these top tiers that our teams keep missing on?! NFL draft is supposedly top 7 strong (Vikings draft 8th), last year's MLB draft's top tier was 3 deep, of course the Twins had the 4th pick. This year the same thing. Top Tier is 4, maybe 3 now with Hoffman banged up, but the Twins draft 5th.

 

Probably b/c fans tend to only consider that number of players. Last years draft wasn't 3 deep - several scouts thought Stewart should go 1-1. Last year's draft did have 3 college players in consideration for the top but Stewart and Frazier were both constantly in the discussion. The Twins will get a pretty good player again at #5.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.

 

I wouldn't... what if their BPA is a guy who's likely to go in the 9-10 range? if so, absolutely go below slot and use that towards a high ceiling HS arm in the 2nd.

[tobi0040]

I wouldn't... what if their BPA is a guy who's likely to go in the 9-10 range? if so, absolutely go below slot and use that towards a high ceiling HS arm in the 2nd.

 

Just an assumption that "below slot" meant taking a guy that we did not think was BPA. The Royals probably took Dozier last year with their eye on Mannea as well.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't see us going below slot, and I would be extremely dissapointed. This will likely be the last time we draft this low in a long time and this is a deep draft. Take a good player to supplement a stacked system.

 

I'll take that bet....there is one more year of drafting in the top 10 coming, I think. But yes, going under slot is a bad idea imo. Go get the best player.

[gunnarthor]

This is what the Astros scouting director says of the talent in this years draft:

“It’s a good class. There’s a lot of high school pitching this year. I’d say that’s the main thing that characterizes the class this year. There’s a lot of high school pitchers that are impact arms at the top and there’s a lot of depth to the class. I think we’re going to see several first rounders who are high school pitchers this year. I would also say there’s some power bats in the college ranks, guys who play a corner position – maybe third base, first, left field, right field in college and have done some damage during the college season. Those are really the two groups of players that stand out in this class.

“Overall we’re pleased with the level of talent. I think it’s probably a notch better than last year’s class, it’s a little stronger and we’re pretty happy about that because not only do we have the 1-1 pick, but we have three in the top 50.”

[cmb0252]

Draft notes on Fedde, Tous, and Ramos from Callis:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140502&content_id=74018400&notebook_id=74018908&vkey=news_&sid

[tobi0040]

I'll take that bet....there is one more year of drafting in the top 10 coming, I think. But yes, going under slot is a bad idea imo. Go get the best player.

 

Somewhere between 8-12 is what I had in mind. #5 in this draft and 8-12 in next years draft should be a pretty big drop off.

[Mike Sixel]

Somewhere between 8-12 is what I had in mind. #5 in this draft and 8-12 in next years draft should be a pretty big drop off.

 

 

ah, fair enough.

[Willihammer]

Draft notes on Fedde, Tous, and Ramos from Callis:

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140502&content_id=74018400&notebook_id=74018908&vkey=news_&sid

 

Toussaint has an exceptionally quick arm. It allows him to deliver 92-96 mph fastballs and mid-70s curveballs. Toussaint's curve breaks so much that he has trouble keeping it in the zone, his catchers have difficulty handling it and umpires sometimes struggle to call it correctly for strikes.

 

...

 

 

While the Vanderbilt recruit will need time to develop and won't race to the Major Leagues, Toussaint could be a star once he gets there. One assistant GM said that Toussaint ranks a close second behind Kolek, who can throw his fastball upward of 100 mph, as the best pure high school arm in the Draft.

"He even rivals Kolek a little bit," the assistant GM said. "You might say he has a much better breaking ball than Kolek, and their command is pretty similar. Toussaint is just scratching the surface. I'm seen him throw 96 mph with a 70 curveball and a 60 changeup [on the 20-80 scouting scale]. He's throwing better strikes.

"He might have more upside than Kolek. He has a chance to be special. He has as much upside as anyone in this Draft."

 

 

I know I probably sound like a broken record but - command can be coached. Electricity can't. This kid could be the next Pedro.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I know I probably sound like a broken record but - command can be coached. Electricity can't. This kid could be the next Pedro.

 

That writeup has me drooling... might have to rethink what I wanted after reading that.

[gunnarthor]

I know I probably sound like a broken record but - command can be coached. Electricity can't. This kid could be the next Pedro.

 

I'm not sure how much command can be coached. Too some extent, I think it can - see Meyer and May's improvement - but Shooter Hunt also says "hello".

[nicksaviking]

I know I probably sound like a broken record but - command can be coached. Electricity can't. This kid could be the next Pedro.

 

I don't like him as much as you do, and probably don't want him at five, but I want him more than the low velocity college guys like Nola and Fedde. I probably still like Grant Holmes a bit more.

[nicksaviking]

I'm not sure how much command can be coached. Too some extent, I think it can - see Meyer and May's improvement - but Shooter Hunt also says "hello".

 

Coached, learned or adjusted somehow, you have a better chance of improving the location of your pitches than you do of legally adding velocity.

 

"Control" pitchers need not apply at #5. Minimum requirements are a 95 mph heater and a wipeout breaking pitch. Resumes will be extensively vetted.

[tobi0040]

That writeup has me drooling... might have to rethink what I wanted after reading that.

 

I like this kid. This is an interesting write up, says his ceiling is as high as anyone, but:

 

"I would bet that he ends up with two pitches that are at least 6 if not 7's, a solid average change and control enough to be a solid #2 starter in the majors."

 

Give me two 60-70 pitches and I am thinking more ace than #2. But he is intriguing either way.

 

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/1/20/5325310/2014-mlb-draft-profile-touki-toussaint-rhp-coral-springs-fl-high

[Willihammer]

I'm not sure how much command can be coached. Too some extent, I think it can - see Meyer and May's improvement - but Shooter Hunt also says "hello".

 

On the other hand - you wonder how bad his command is if he's losing strikes because the umps can't track his hammer and his catchers can't catch it (much less frame it).

 

I'd love to see a tryout where he throws to a decent backstop and then let's see how bad his command actually is.

[tobi0040]

Coached, learned or adjusted somehow, you have a better chance of improving the location of your pitches than you do of legally adding velocity.

 

"Control" pitchers need not apply at #5. Minimum requirements are a 95 mph heater and a wipeout breaking pitch. Resumes will be extensively vetted.

 

I completely agree. When the Marlins took Jose Fernandez at #6 and the Dodgers took Kershaw at #7, they weren't hoping for a #4 or #5 starter. Fernandez had command question marks and Kershaw had an oblique injury his senior year. But those lotto tickets had a higher jackpot than a back of the rotation guy.

 

#4 or #5 starters can be signed on the free agent market. Even by the Twins. Kershaw and Fernandez will likely never be free agents and if they were, we wouldn't even put in a phone call.

[nicksaviking]

On the other hand - you wonder how bad his command is if he's losing strikes because the umps can't track his hammer and his catchers can't catch it (much less frame it).

 

I'd love to see a tryout where he throws to a decent backstop and then let's see how bad his command actually is.

 

His electric stuff that fools umpires and catchers alike reminds me of Deduno.

 

Of course Deduno seems to walk a thin line between utter dominance and complete train wreck. That line is pencil thin, I'm not sure how he stays on.

 

Or perhaps what I mean is, I wish he would finally fall off onto the utter dominance side.

[Willihammer]

I don't like him as much as you do, and probably don't want him at five, but I want him more than the low velocity college guys like Nola and Fedde. I probably still like Grant Holmes a bit more.

 

I like Holmes a lot too but Touki has the edge in the curveball and changeup, as I understand it (although Holmes' curve is pretty damn sick). Holmes does look pretty close to a finished product though whereas Touki would definitely be a bit of a project.

 

In my mind it comes down to a question of - who trusts their coaches? Who is confident in their player development? That is the team who stands to strike the motherload.

[Lonestar]

I find it ironic that Trea Turner is now out of the conversation for some of you that were making a case for him. He's having basically the same season except his BAPIP dropped from .390 to .300 this year.

Turner had a nice week end.

 

11 AB | 9 H | 1 2B | 1 3B | 1 HR | 4 BB | 1 SO | 6 SB

 

Season slash stats up to .330/.424/.523

 

BABIP now .329

[cmb0252]

Crawford released his new board. Heavily linked to the Twins Gordon moves up to #6. Check out his top 50 draft prospects here:

 

http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2014/05/the-board-2014-volume-iv/

[Mike Sixel]

Clearly, then Gordon isn't "taking a SS because they don't have one" thing anymore! Great. I hope he's legit, I hope they take him, because, they DON'T have one.

[cmb0252]

Crawford released an ESPN insider article today with a few draft updates. He talks about Aiken vs Rodon for top arm, talks about 3 college 1b (Reed, Sam Travis, and Casey Gillespie) making a late charge, and how Newcomb and Freeland continue to impress. Here is a scouts take on Freeland:

 

"I hear [Freeland] and {LSU's] Aaron Nola compared all the time," an AL scout said. "And I get the comparison, they're both pitchers who have plus command and have concerns about their low arm-slots. For me though, I'd rather have Freeland.

 

"If things are close I generally would prefer the left-hander anyway, and I think he's got a better breaking ball and is going to miss more bats at the professional level. That isn't necessarily what the industry thinks, and he's definitely going to have to use his change more, but if he does, he's got a chance to be a solid number three, maybe even a number two."

 

Link to full article here:

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1648

[cmb0252]

Clearly, then Gordon isn't "taking a SS because they don't have one" thing anymore! Great. I hope he's legit, I hope they take him, because, they DON'T have one.

 

I'm not a big bloodline guy but with Dee starting to finally put it together it makes Nick more interesting IMO. Especially when you take how much better of a prospect Nick is compared to his brother when he came out. Nick is bigger, stronger, has a better arm, and the footwork to handle SS. Also, having daddy Gordon as a father doesn't hurt.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not a big bloodline guy but with Dee starting to finally put it together it makes Nick more interesting IMO. Especially when you take how much better of a prospect Nick is compared to his brother when he came out. Nick is bigger, stronger, has a better arm, and the footwork to handle SS. Also, having daddy Gordon as a father doesn't hurt.

 

I'm guessing Alex must have been adopted?

[Fatt Crapps]

Completely off topic, but has anyone checked out Mitch Brown's stats? Yeeeeesh. He's still young, but I'm glad they didn't go with the hometown kid.

[markos]

My board right now:

 

Tier 1 (super-exciting if one of these guys fell to the Twins)

1) Aiken

2) Rodon

3) Kolek

 

Tier 2 (still exciting)

4) Hoffman (assuming healthy)

5) Gordon

6) Jackson

7) Holmes

 

Tier 3 (not so exciting, but not the end of the world)

8) Freeland

9) Beede

10) Zimmer

11) Nola

 

Anyone else would either be a disappointment or I just don't know enough about them right now. I was pretty close to moving Freeland up to Tier 2. Maybe I'll feel differently after I learn more about him in the next few weeks. Also, I was very close to dropping Nola off the list.

[tobi0040]

Here is a mock from bleacher report yesterday.

 

Rodon, Kolek, Aiken, Beede, then the Twins taking Gordon.

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2049801-2014-mlb-mock-draft-latest-1st-round-projections-one-month-from-draft-day#articles/2049801-2014-mlb-mock-draft-latest-1st-round-projections-one-month-from-draft-day/page/2