Miguel Sano: I expect 45 HR this year, and 120 BB

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't have a problem with that goal. I do hope the kid hits it, but if he doesn't, I hope he knows how to deal with dissapointment. That's a tough task. Good luck to him.

[big dog]

I'm thrilled that he says he wants a lot of bombs and also a lot of walks. I'm pretty sure he won't be happy with a .225 batting average either. And he knows he has to work to get there. Very nice combination of attributes.

[Craig Arko]

I think he can do it, although the BB will be the harder goal to reach. Working with Mauer should help.

 

The real question is how many of those taters come at Target Field.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Sano has 80 power, at least according to scouts... that's Thomesque... I don't think he's going to have problems mashing taters at TF. Right now, he needs to improve on contact more than anything else. I do think he can do that. His avg got sapped quite a bit in AA, but between the arm injury and the adjustments he had to make against tougher pitching, it wasn't terribly unexpected. I don't know if he starts in AAA or AA, but I think he goes right back to doing what he did in the low minors... hit.

[Halsey Hall]

Today was the first day of hitting on the field this spring. Sano was held to one round only, and then he sat out infield grounders. Looks like they are going to take it real slow with him this spring.

 

As for his English question, he's come a long ways. His English has really improved the last couple of years.

[Linus]

Ummm, he has no chance of hitting 40 this year unless he spends the whole year in New Britain (and I love the guy as a prospect). I think we need a little reality check on where the kid is at (1/2 season at AA under his belt) and how rare it is to hit 40 homers at the major league level, or AAA for that matter. To put it in perspective, if / when he does it, it would make him the second Twin in history to do it behind some guy named Harmon Killebrew.

[jokin]

I hope he has 40 nice, slow trots this year - nothing wrong with admiring your own handiwork from time to time.

 

Watching Gardy's head explode 40 times after those nice, slow trots would double the enjoyment.

[jokin]

Ummm, he has no chance of hitting 40 this year unless he spends the whole year in New Britain (and I love the guy as a prospect). I think we need a little reality check on where the kid is at (1/2 season at AA under his belt) and how rare it is to hit 40 homers at the major league level, or AAA for that matter. To put it in perspective, if / when he does it, it would make him the second Twin in history to do it behind some guy named Harmon Killebrew.

 

Difficult, but not impossible. As rare as it is to hit 40 HR, it is even more rare to possess a True 80 power ratng. The Twins have had nothing like Sano since Killebrew, and athletically for a power hitter, nothng lke Sano (Winfield doesn't count).

[jokin]

Mark McGwire hit 26 HRs playing at AA, AAA and MLB combined in 1986. The next year, his official rookie year, he hit 49. Sano hit 35 last year, and he did that even though missing significant time, playing in 2 tough pitcher's leagues, and not getting a September call-up.

 

There is a precedent and Sano is the real deal. The odds aren't high that he can accomplish his goal, but they aren't zero, either.

[Linus]

Difficult, but not impossible. As rare as it is to hit 40 HR, it is even more rare to possess a True 80 power ratng. The Twins have had nothing like Sano since Killebrew, and athletically for a power hitter, nothng lke Sano (Winfield doesn't count).

 

With all due respect, difficult is a severe understatement. How many players have played for the Twins since 1961 and there has been one guy to do it? That's quite a bit more than difficult. And while I respect the scouting rating, the difference is that is projection (opinion) and the lack of people ever accomplishing this feat is fact. It would be interesting to find out what percentage of players in the history of MLB have ever hit 40 homers in a season - it would be a miniscule number.

[jokin]

With all due respect, difficult is a severe understatement. How many players have played for the Twins since 1961 and there has been one guy to do it? That's quite a bit more than difficult. And while I respect the scouting rating, the difference is that is projection (opinion) and the lack of people ever accomplishing this feat is fact. It would be interesting to find out what percentage of players in the history of MLB have ever hit 40 homers in a season - it would be a miniscule number.

 

As are the number of players who came into the league with an 80 power rating. Sano not only has gotten the rating from respected multiple services that rarely, if ever, hand out that rating, he has done things in 2013 in the FSL that were unprecedented and at least give credence to the possbility- at least 1-3%.

 

(His cause would be greatly aided if he had a proven major leaguer like Kendrys Morales batting behind him in the order, or if Arcia somehow hits his full offensive ceiling).

[Linus]

As are the number of players who came into the league with an 80 power rating. Sano not only has gotten the rating from respected multiple services that rarely, if ever, hand out that rating, he has done things in 2013 in the FSL that were unprecedented and at least give credence to the possbility- at least 1-3%.

 

(His cause would be greatly aided if he had a proven major leaguer like Kendrys Morales batting behind him in the order, or if Arcia somehow hits his full offensive ceiling).

 

Well, now we can agree - I won't argue with 1-3% but that was not the prevailing sentiment in the thread. And Morales isn't really going to help him much as Sano will be in Rochester

[Ncgo4]

I don't think so. Granted only 1 has done it, but we have NEVER had a power hitter like this. 30 taters then 35 taters with a lot of missed time in the second year? I agree it's a stretch but everything about Sano has been a stretch. The stretch to me will be 120 BB's. If he hits that number, he's learned to wait for HS pitch and...LOOK OUT!

[jokin]

Well, now we can agree - I won't argue with 1-3% but that was not the prevailing sentiment in the thread. And Morales isn't really going to help him much as Sano will be in Rochester

 

Hopefully, not for very long....

[twinsfan34]

It would be interesting to find out what percentage of players in the history of MLB have ever hit 40 homers in a season - it would be a miniscule number.

 

Small, yes. But this needs some context. As Sano isn't just any random MLB player and his odds of hitting 40 HR.

 

I think Sano said 40 HR this year (joking, but serious) and wasn't persay at the MLB level, though I imagine some of his 40 total would include MLB level.

 

But a more contextually relevant comparison is 40 HR for 'power prospects' who were top 10 Baseball America prospects (longer history than BP or MLB, more data points). Maybe look at top 10 prospects, top 20 prospects, top 100...given they are 'power projected' prospects.

 

And this is 40 HR in the majors, or just in a season? e.g. Stanton in 2010 (21 at AA, 22 at MLB, 43 total)

 

I've seen 70 grades go for 27-34 HR...and some weighted standard error with SD's that would give a 70 grade 30-38 HR.

 

Here's some prospects from BA's 1990.

 

I've seen some scouting reports on Frank Thomas while at Auburn, most gave him a 70 or 80. I can't find anything concrete on Juan Gonzalez, whether 70 or 80 power grade at that age. I see one scouting report for Greg Vaughn saying 'plus' power potential, which is only a 60 grade...but he did hit 40 HR. Clearly power was seen there, but maybe not a 'power prospect'

 

Cant' find anything on Eric Anthony.

 

Reggie Jefferson, Bobe Hamelin, Dean Palmer, Tino Martinez, Larry Walker, Glenallen Hill, Phil Plantier might be potential 70 grade power guys or 60. Maybe include them all?

 

This is a very curious study...might be higher than one might think.

 

Jefferson and Hameline never were healthy for a full season. Palmer hit 38 twice. Martinez and Walker both hit 40+. Hill only had 31 in the minors, 29 in the majors. Plantier hit 34 in his only full season in the Majors.

 

So out of 11 'power-ish' guys, 5 managed 40 bombs in a season, and Palmer had a few seasons of 38.

[twinsfan34]

BA top 100 list for 1990. Position players only.

 

 

 

[TABLE=width: 258]

Rank

Prospect Name

Pos

3

John Olerud

1B

4

Juan Gonzalez

RF-LF

5

Sandy Alomar

C

7

Todd Zeile

3B-1B

8

Eric Anthony

RF-LF

9

Greg Vaughn

LF

10

Jose Offerman

SS-2B

12

Delino DeShields

2B

15

Robin Ventura

3B

17

Marquis Grissom

CF

19

Ray Lankford

LF

22

Ty Griffin

SS

24

Mark Lewis

2B-3B

25

Wes Chamberlain

RF-LF

28

Reggie Jefferson

1B-LF

29

Frank Thomas

1B-DH

30

Tom Goodwin

CF-LF

31

Bob Hamelin

1B

33

Dean Palmer

3B

34

Braulio Castillo

CF-RF

37

Moises Alou

LF-RF

38

Willie Ansley

OF

39

Travis Fryman

3B-SS

40

Tino Martinez

1B

41

Mickey Morandini

2B

42

Larry Walker

RF

43

Donald Harris

CF-RF

44

Earl Cunningham

OF

49

Glenallen Hill

RF-LF

52

Steve Hosey

RF

53

Deion Sanders

CF-LF

54

Felix Jose

RF

55

Andujar Cedeno

SS

57

Rico Brogna

1B

58

Tom Redington

3B

59

Manny Alexander

SS-2B

62

Wil Cordero

LF-SS

63

Eric Wedge

C

65

Todd Hundley

C

66

Willie Greene

3B

67

Carlos Baerga

2B

68

Scott Cooper

3B-1B

70

Rick Wilkins

C

71

Darren Lewis

CF

72

Derrick May

LF

74

Dan Peltier

RF-1B

75

Derek Bell

RF-CF

76

Mo Vaughn

1B

77

Bernie Williams

CF

79

Mickey Pina

OF

82

Kevin Belcher

CF-RF

83

Phil Plantier

LF-RF

84

Eric Karros

1B

89

Thomas Howard

LF-CF

91

Paul Sorrento

1B

92

Tyler Houston

3B-C

93

David Segui

1B

94

Scott Coolbaugh

3B

97

Brian Jordan

RF-LF

99

Jose Vizcaino

SS-2B

[/TABLE]

[twinsfan34]

For 1991, Baseball America top 100, position players only...who are the '70-80' grade power guys?

 

I see Mo Vaughn getting some 80 grade powers, he did hit 40 HR. Tino had a 70 grade by some.

 

Palmer, in one scouting report says 'power bat'...but no grades. Couldn't find anyone else, by minor league stats or reports to be any sort of power prospect.

 

Klesko has a 60 grade in one report.

 

[TABLE=width: 256]

Rank

Prospect Name

Pos

2

Andujar Cedeno

SS

3

Ryan Klesko

LF-1B

4

Jose Offerman

SS-2B

7

Ivan Rodriguez

C

8

Reggie Sanders

RF-LF

9

Mark Lewis

2B-3B

10

Mo Vaughn

1B

11

Bernie Williams

CF

12

Wil Cordero

LF-SS

13

Rondell White

LF-CF

14

Raul Mondesi

RF-CF

17

Tim Costo

RF-1B

18

Tino Martinez

1B

20

Jeff McNeely

CF

22

Eddie Zosky

SS

23

Royce Clayton

SS

25

Mark Whiten

RF-LF

28

Tyler Houston

3B-C

29

Henry Rodriguez

LF

30

Hensley Meulens

LF

31

Marc Newfield

LF

32

Jeff Bagwell

1B

35

Rico Brogna

1B

37

Willie Greene

3B

39

Gary Scott

3B

44

D.J. Dozier

LF

45

Jeff Conine

1B-LF

46

Tim Naehring

3B-2B

47

Brook Fordyce

C

49

Chipper Jones

3B

51

Ray Lankford

LF

52

Steve Decker

C

55

Wes Chamberlain

RF-LF

59

Todd Hundley

C

60

Dean Palmer

3B

61

Leo Gomez

3B

62

Carlos Garcia

2B

64

Greg Blosser

LF

67

Kerwin Moore

CF

68

Pat Kelly

2B

70

Dave Staton

1B

72

Chuck Knoblauch

2B

73

Tim Salmon

RF

74

Tom Goodwin

CF-LF

75

Kenny Lofton

CF

78

Reggie Jefferson

1B-LF

82

Ricky Gutierrez

SS

83

Steve Hosey

RF

85

Greg Colbrunn

1B

87

Earl Cunningham

OF

88

Carl Everett

CF-RF

92

William Suero

2B

93

Jim Thome

DH

94

Eric Karros

1B

95

Dan Wilson

C

96

Willie Ansley

OF

99

Bret Boone

2B

100

Dan Peltier

RF-1B

[/TABLE]

[diehardtwinsfan]

There were some pretty good players on that list...

[Turd Furgeson]

As are the number of players who came into the league with an 80 power rating. Sano not only has gotten the rating from respected multiple services that rarely, if ever, hand out that rating, he has done things in 2013 in the FSL that were unprecedented and at least give credence to the possbility- at least 1-3%.

 

(His cause would be greatly aided if he had a proven major leaguer like Kendrys Morales batting behind him in the order, or if Arcia somehow hits his full offensive ceiling).

 

80 grade power is definitely rare. Though, it's not as rare as other tools being a legit 80. An 80 hit tool is something I don't remember seeing put on anyone in recent years. Or an 80 changeup, that's extremely rare in the minors.

 

Guys with 80 grade power in recent years:

 

Miguel Sano

Javier Bias (not sure its consensus but seems to be thrown around a lot)

Joey Gallo (may never make the majors)

Bryce Harper

Mike Stanton

[Linus]

OK - I like optimism as well as the next guy. But to introduce a different angle let's predict what we think will happen, not if we happen to pull the winning lottery ticket. How about an over / under - here is mine: 18 homers in Rochester (half season); 8 in Minnesota for a total of 26.

[Ncgo4]

OK - I like optimism as well as the next guy. But to introduce a different angle let's predict what we think will happen, not if we happen to pull the winning lottery ticket. How about an over / under - here is mine: 18 homers in Rochester (half season); 8 in Minnesota for a total of 26.

 

i'll bite. 15 taters in Rochester by June 1. Called up and then 30 more in the bigs. Total 45. Gee whiz, he is good!

[Shane Wahl]

80 grade power is definitely rare. Though, it's not as rare as other tools being a legit 80. An 80 hit tool is something I don't remember seeing put on anyone in recent years. Or an 80 changeup, that's extremely rare in the minors.

 

Guys with 80 grade power in recent years:

 

Miguel Sano

Javier Bias (not sure its consensus but seems to be thrown around a lot)

Joey Gallo (may never make the majors)

Bryce Harper

Mike Stanton

 

Am I missing something about Gallo? I mean he will move to first or DH, but is there something else here? The guy is very, very good.

[Shane Wahl]

OK - I like optimism as well as the next guy. But to introduce a different angle let's predict what we think will happen, not if we happen to pull the winning lottery ticket. How about an over / under - here is mine: 18 homers in Rochester (half season); 8 in Minnesota for a total of 26.

 

Well is the over/under 26 for the year or 18 there and 8 here? I will take the over on the 26, but I don't know how it will be broken up. He should maul AAA pitching. And he is still going to hit bombs with frequency in MLB, it just might come with a lot of strikeouts so his BA will be lower. I would bet on 35 homers between the two.

[Turd Furgeson]

Am I missing something about Gallo? I mean he will move to first or DH, but is there something else here? The guy is very, very good.

 

He struck out 172 times in 411 ABs. Sano has some issues with contact but Gallo's are much worse. He probably has more power than Sano actually, but his bat control is suspect.

[jokin]

Well is the over/under 26 for the year or 18 there and 8 here? I will take the over on the 26, but I don't know how it will be broken up. He should maul AAA pitching. And he is still going to hit bombs with frequency in MLB, it just might come with a lot of strikeouts so his BA will be lower. I would bet on 35 homers between the two.

 

How much action is Linus willing to lay out here? I'll definitely take the over he's giving....and providing he's healthy and doesn't get suspended for slow-trotting his HRs, I suggest that 35 combined is very doable- you're spot on, Shane, Sano will have his way with AAA pitchers- especially if/when the weather ever warms up.

[jokin]

He struck out 172 times in 411 ABs. Sano has some issues with contact but Gallo's are much worse. He probably has more power than Sano actually, but his bat control is suspect.

 

A 19 year old Thome-body-in-the-making, who just hit 40 HRs in 400 ABs in 2013, probably shouldn't be casually dismissed as a future major-leaguer out of hand....but I'm glad we have Sano instead of a future 3 True Outcome guy.

[twinsfan34]

On Gallo:

 

Curious, did he make any Top 100/101 lists?

 

I don't think he made Keith Law's 100.

MLB.com had him #92.

He didn't make Baseball Prospectus top 101.

 

He struck out 37% of the time...at Class A. Progression that's like 55-60% of his MLB at-bats.

 

Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds....strike out a lot...and hit around .200, well, Gallo would be worse than that. Both of those guys did quite a bit better than he did against A level pitching.

 

Here's an article by Conor Glassey on Gallo and strikeouts. Lots of precedents to overcome.

[twinsfan34]

So I did some research, mostly looking through grades on found on the Top 100 Prospect lists at these websites:

http://scouts.baseballhall.org/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-scouts-saw-roy-halladay-and-todd-helton/ Baseball America archives of players (Scroll to the bottom, click on prospect rankings/tools archives)

 

These are not necessarily 'consensus 80 grade' prospects, For instance, Pedro Alvarez and J.D. Drew had multiple reports that went like this 65-70-75-80, depending on the scout.

 

I left some players in the 60's and 70's to show players I found, in case there was some wondering if they were 80's or not (they may be by some scout), but wouldn't be a consensus like Sano and the others where I found it seemed to be a consensus across multiple scouts or scouting services.

 

I found the ages to be of interest too. A few guys, like Cabrera and Teixeira, it didn't specifically say "80 grade" however, a few sites (BA), said "expect 35-40 HR a season" to which, if you take the grade projections, that would be an 80 by any system I could find. Some systems have 80 grade as 35+ others have 39+, either way, that'd be an '80' grade. So I didn't put consensus for them as a few other indicators said '30+ HR a season'...

 

There's 13 '80 grades' here, counting Drew, Alvarez, and the others that didn't seem to be consensus. Joey Gallo is not a top 100 prospect by many publications...and also, not an 80 as they're not sure he'll ever make that much contact.

 

Sano said, if he gets 150 games, he'd hit 40, 45...55.

 

Bo didn't make it, yet, his high was 135 games and he hit 32 HR. JD Drew hit 31 in 145 games. I'm not sure either would have hit 40 HR though, at any point. I'd take Bo over JD. Stanton hit 43 HR in 2010 splitting time at AA and MLB. Leaving Bryce Harper and Pedro Alvarez as the only guys left who haven't hit 40 HR.

 

Pretty cool. It's not perfect system - but it was a good question of guys with '80 grade' and how they fared as far as hitting 40 HR. Most managed to get it.

 

And as far as Pedro Alvarez, I bet Sano could better Alvarez' numbers in MLB in 2014, no problem. I'd take the bet. I doubt the Twins would be happy with that kind of AVG/OBP/SLG though. But I could be wrong.

 

.233/.296/.473 36 HR and 48/186 BB/SO.

 

And because of character limits...I'll post the list in the next post...

[twinsfan34]

[TABLE=width: 610]

Year

BA Rank

Player

POS

Age

Grade

Consensus??

1985

N/A

Bo Jackson

CF

22

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

Consensus

1988

N/A

Ken Griffey, Jr

CF

18

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

consensus

1990

29

Frank Thomas

1B-DH

22

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

consensus

1990

76

Mo Vaughn

1B

22

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

consensus

1999

1

J.D. Drew

RF

23

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

[/TD]

2001

1

Josh Hamilton

CF-LF

20

[TD=align: right]80

consensus

2002

10

Mark Teixeira

1B

22

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

consensus

2003

12

Miguel Cabrera

3B

20

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

[/TD]

2004

10

Prince Fielder

1B

20

[TD=align: right]80

consensus

2005

27

Ryan Howard

1B

25

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

consensus

2009

16

Giancarlo Stanton

RF

19

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

consensus

2010

8

Pedro Alvarez

3B

23

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

[/TD]

2011

1

Bryce Harper

CF-RF

18

[TD=align: right]80

consensus

2011

60

Miguel Sano

3B

18

[TD=align: right]80[/TD]

consensus

1990

4

Juan Gonzalez

RF-LF

20

[TD=align: right]70[/TD]

[/TD]

1990

33

Dean Palmer

3B

21

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1990

40

Tino Martinez

1B

22

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1991

18

Tino Martinez

1B

23

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1991

60

Dean Palmer

3B

22

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1993

4

Carlos Delgado

1B

21

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1993

13

Manny Ramirez

DH

21

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1994

1

Cliff Floyd

LF-OF

21

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1994

5

Carlos Delgado

1B

22

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1994

6

Alex Rodriguez

3B

18

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1994

7

Manny Ramirez

DH

22

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1995

1

Alex Rodriguez

3B

19

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1997

2

Vladimir Guerrero

LF

22

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

2000

24

Drew Henson

3B

20

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

2000

56

Adam Dunn

DH-1B

20

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

2012

10

Wil Myers

CF

20

[TD=align: right]70

[/TD]

1990

9

Greg Vaughn

LF

24

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1990

42

Larry Walker

RF

23

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1991

73

Tim Salmon

RF

22

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1991

93

Jim Thome

DH

20

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1993

5

Tim Salmon

RF

24

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1993

20

Javy Lopez

C

22

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1993

30

Phil Nevin

3B-1B

22

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1994

17

Javy Lopez

C

23

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1995

38

Paul Konerko

1B

19

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1997

19

Richard Hidalgo

RF-CF

21

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1999

13

Lance Berkman

1B

23

[TD=align: right]60

[/TD]

1999

29

Russell Branyan

1B

23

[TD=align: right]60

[TD][/TD]

[/TABLE]