Twins & SS Stephen Drew?

[John Bonnes]

Per Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog, the Twins are one of three team in on top free agent SS Stephen Drew, who received a qualified offer:

 

http://metsblog.com/metsblog/mets-still-looking-for-ss-in-play-for-stephen-drew/

[Trautmann13]

I really don't like this potential spot for Drew. First of all, he is basically the only SS on the market worth a damn, so he is likely going to get upwards of $50 million. Secondly, He is a defensive (a really great one) SS with little bat potential. Finally, don't we already have Steven Drew in the form of Florimon? Defensive with little bat? If the twins don't want to move forward with Florimon couldn't they just do the Dozier and reconstruct Rosario into a SS, he will likely be moving anyway according to Ryan

[cmb0252]

Pass. Injury prone, costs a draft pick, and will be over payed. If you are willing to give up a draft pick and over pay someone go for a better player.

[Thrylos]

Allegedly Ryan was not willing to give away that second round draft pick for a starter, I just cannot see him giving it away for Drew plus paying him 3/$36M or something. I just don't see it, but strange things happen...

[Mike Sixel]

Drew had a positive offensive WAR, Floriman, not so much.....by any measure, he's better than Floriman.

 

But you don't do this unless you are trying to win this year or next year.......which requires maybe another SP.

[Gernzy]

I wanted Drew a year ago, but I don't think he's worth giving up a draft pick now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'd love to have Drew, not so much at the expense of a draft pick.

 

But hey, if it drives down his price to the point that it's a good deal, pull the trigger. The Twins have the advantage of not losing their first round pick for it, unlike most teams.

[nicksaviking]

I don't trust him. Even in his "healthy" comeback year he still missed over 30 games. Let the Red Sox make the same mistake the Giants just made after winning the World Series. Let them re-sign all their core vets who just happened to have career or bounce back years.

 

He's much better than what the Twins have now, but he's not elite and whatever skill he has seems less than 50/50 to continue throughout a 3 year deal.

[Mike Sixel]

Why the concern over the pick? How often will a second rounder even contribute 2 GOOD seasons to a team? Drew is worth 2.5-3 WAR a year.....

 

For the Twins:

Assuming it takes 5 years to make the majors...starting with 2008 draft picks (and working backward), 21 picks in round two contributed no WAR, or negative WAR, while 6 contributed positive WAR in the last couple of decades.......two of those less than 2.5 WAR for their career. Only Baker, Slowey, Crain and Jaque Jones contributed more than 2.5 WAR for their career from 1984 - 2008.

[cmb0252]

Why the concern over the pick? How often will a second rounder even contribute 2 GOOD seasons to a team? Drew is worth 2.5-3 WAR a year.....

 

For the Twins:

Assuming it takes 5 years to make the majors...starting with 2008 draft picks (and working backward), 21 picks in round two contributed no WAR, or negative WAR, while 6 contributed positive WAR in the last couple of decades.......two of those less than 2.5 WAR for their career. Only Baker, Slowey, Crain and Jaque Jones contributed more than 2.5 WAR for their career from 1984 - 2008.

 

How often is Steph Drew worth 2.5-3 WAR a year? It's not just about the draft pick. It's about getting rid of a draft pick, draft budget, to sign an often injured player. Heck, even if he didn't have the draft pick connected to him I wouldn't want the Twins to sign him at 3/30+.

[ND-Fan]

I doubt the Twins will give up a draft pick for Drew. Only circumstance would be his value has fallen far enough that giving up a pick is worth it in Terry's mind and like I say Red Sox will retain him if value drops that much.

[Twins Twerp]

If we are going to surrender a draft pick, I for one, would prefer one of the pitchers like tied to draft pick comp. I am not completely against an upgrade at SS which Drew most definitely would be. Also could we have had Brett Anderson for that return, geez the hot stove is fluid during the winter meetings.

[Mike Sixel]

My post was mostly to debunk the "omg, they might lose a 2nd round pick" argument in general.......I'll just assume you meant Stephen, not JD.

[maxisagod]

Why the concern over the pick? How often will a second rounder even contribute 2 GOOD seasons to a team? Drew is worth 2.5-3 WAR a year.....

 

For the Twins:

Assuming it takes 5 years to make the majors...starting with 2008 draft picks (and working backward), 21 picks in round two contributed no WAR, or negative WAR, while 6 contributed positive WAR in the last couple of decades.......two of those less than 2.5 WAR for their career. Only Baker, Slowey, Crain and Jaque Jones contributed more than 2.5 WAR for their career from 1984 - 2008.

 

Well this year it's a deep class, so the twins are in line for a normal 1st round talent with there second pick, which equals a top 10 prospect even in a deep system like the Twins farm system. So, is Drew worth a trade of a top 10 Twins prospect plus a over market contact? I don't think He is, though other Free agents are for sure.

[johnnydakota]

Wouldnt we be better off saving the draft pick, and spend the money on A.Diaz?

[Mike Sixel]

Well this year it's a deep class, so the twins are in line for a normal 1st round talent with there second pick, which equals a top 10 prospect even in a deep system like the Twins farm system. So, is Drew worth a trade of a top 10 Twins prospect plus a over market contact? I don't think He is, though other Free agents are for sure.

 

IF the player works out. Heck, the Twins have wasted top 5 picks, let alone second rounders.

[johnnydakota]

If we are going to surrender a draft pick, I for one, would prefer one of the pitchers like tied to draft pick comp. I am not completely against an upgrade at SS which Drew most definitely would be. Also could we have had Brett Anderson for that return, geez the hot stove is fluid during the winter meetings.

 

The Rockie just traded for Anderson

[Brandon]

If the Twins sign him it will be for a 3/27 with probably a million or so incentive per season for staying on the field. The only concern with Florimon is if he regresses more with the bat. He'll be fine defensively. THere is lots of pressure for the Twins to make improvements next year with the citiznes who paid for the park and because the allstar game will be here next year. You don't want to be the door mat the year the allstar game is in your neighborhood. and so far the Twins have been thwarted on the offensive side of things with their inability to get a C and then Davis signed with Detroit. Looks like they are getting closer to signing Arroyo. but back to Drew. I am not against it if the price is 3/30 or less. and I still think Young is one of the better signings we could make since it would be short term and he doesnt strike out much either.

[JP3700]

I think Drew is being way undervalued here. Shortstops who hit league average with good defense don't grow on trees. As I mentioned before, Tulo and Peralta are the only players who've met that standard in the last three years. Drew just missed due to his bad start coming back from injury in 2012.

 

The comparison to Florimon was just not accurate. Drew was 40% better than Florimon at the plate in 2013. Drew - wRC+ 109. Florimon - wRC+ 68.

 

I would not overpay, but I wouldn't rule it out. I'd wait it out and see if the market thinned. Value is value.

[drivlikejehu]

The Twins might just be hanging around to see if they can get him at a reasonable price - injury concerns and the draft pick could limit the market for Drew. Plus the Indians are open to trading Cabrera, and there aren't a ton of teams shopping for a SS.

 

Financially, it's the same story as it has been- the Twins have plenty of payroll space and no one internally will be getting a big raise in the next 3 years.

[twinsajsf]

3/$27M is VERY reasonable, but I doubt he signs for that. My guess is 2/$24M from the Sox.

[Willihammer]

From where I'm standing it was the Twins' overvaluing of comp picks that's partly responsible for getting us into this mess. I'd gladly take Drew over another Shooter Hunt.

[Steve Lein]

I don't like the idea of losing the 2nd round pick to sign Drew to the contract he likely wants, but if it's considerably less than the qualifying offer on a per year basis, I wouldn't be against it.

[raindog]

If the Twins signed Drew, would they have to give up another pick for someone like Jimenez or Santana? If not, I could see that making sense.

[John Bonnes]

Well, I'd jump in feet first.

 

Stephen Drew is 30 years old, plays excellent defense, has 15ish HR power, and gets on base at a pretty decent clip. He's a former top prospect that has had a very promising career arc short-circuited by a gruesome ankle injury that appears to be healed. And, of course, he plays at a position of tremendous need for the Twins. The biggest knock against him - he doesn't hit lefthanders.

 

As for his cost - he costs a lot because he's good. The Twins have that money in their budget, and frankly, I can't think of a better way for this team to spend $12M. I really can't.

 

As for the draft pick, it's a second round pick. The Twins last few second round picks are: Ryan Eades, Melotakis, Madison Boer, Niko Goodrum, Billy Bullock. I'll make that trade. I can see the argument that if they were going to give up a 2nd round pick, Jimenez or Santana are better, except:

 

1) The market is lot thinner for shortstops than for starting pitching. Alternatives existed for starting pitching and not as many exist for shortstop.

2) Especially now that two starting pitchers have been signed, shorstop is a bigger need.

 

I've only had a little time to think about it, but off the top of my head, this would be my favorite move of the offseason. I just want to give a little more thought about what we do about left-handed pitching.

[richardkr34]

Every time he plays over 100 games, actually.

[John Bonnes]

If the Twins signed Drew, would they have to give up another pick for someone like Jimenez or Santana? If not, I could see that making sense.

Then they would need to give up their 3rd pick for one of those guys.

[richardkr34]

Every time he plays over 100 games, actually.

 

This was in reference to someone asking how often Drew's WAR is 2.5-3.0.

[amjgt]

I think many of us would like to think that the Twins' time in the bottom 10 will be fairly short-lived. As such, if we were ever going to sign a compensatory pick player NOW is the time. What better time than right before you get good?

 

Drew doesn't cost a second round pick. He costs a FIRST round pick. He costs US a 2nd round pick because we sucked last year. Next year we might not have that "luxury".

[amjgt]

Bonnes nailed it with this list: Ryan Eades, Melotakis, Madison Boer, Niko Goodrum, Billy Bullock

 

You can't let guys like those prevent you from signing players that you want/need