The model organization to emulate?

[Kwak]

Sure, that's entirely possible. Might the Twins have picked him instead of Gibson if they had been given the opportunity? Also possible. I think the various arguments here make sense, and St Louis has done some admirable things, but I'm not sure I'd trash the Twins FO for picking Gibson instead of Miller when Miller was already gone.

 

Roids? "I'm not here to talk about the past." Hee hee.

 

 

I never posted that the Twins should (obviously because they couldn't) select Miller. My point was that the Cardinals are very good at scouting pitchers--and much better than the Twins. It may also be that they are much better at development also. I understand the desire to rush to the defense of the Twins' FO--but let's not edit someone else's post to do so.

[big dog]

I never posted that the Twins should (obviously because they couldn't) select Miller. My point was that the Cardinals are very good at scouting pitchers--and much better than the Twins. It may also be that they are much better at development also. I understand the desire to rush to the defense of the Twins' FO--but let's not edit someone else's post to do so.

 

Not "rushing to the defense of the Twins' FO", and thank you for pushing that hornet's nest back into the debate- this thread had been blissfully free of it until now. I agreed with most of your points, just suggesting that the one particular data point did not deserve the snark you provided. Nor did my response.

 

And yes, I do think the Cardinals do a much better job in this area than the Twins. I also like the outstanding job they do of getting free agents. OK? Just trying to be fair here.

[biggentleben]

This is getting way off topic.

 

The article about the Cardinals is interesting. Why not discuss what the Twins might learn from the Cardinals? Or perhaps debate whether the Rays or the A's or some other team might make a better role model?

 

Just don't try to draft like the Rays have recently and have success. The first thing that's impressive about the Cardinals is their culture that no one is indispensable, no matter who you are, but the second is that they have had sustained success (only one losing season in the 2000s - and no 90-loss seasons) while utilizing primarily homegrown players in their roster and drafting in the last half of the first round each season.

[biggentleben]

Yahoo sports misidentifies Lynn's background (they were my source) sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8650 My"google search" for Micheal (Lance) Lynn, yielded a draft in supplemental round 1, 39th overall in 2008 by the Cardinals--and that he signed.

 

Trusting Yahoo does have its risk. But again, another player selected not at the top, and in that area that the Twins complain they can't find talent. Twins draftee before Lynn--Aaron Hicks 1st Rd, 14th overall--still trying to learn to hit enough to be a bench OFer.

 

Utilize baseball-reference.com on anything to do with a player's background. Best site out there with draft background, in my opinion.

[gunnarthor]

Looking at the Cards drafts since 2000, a few things pop out. First, they've had a ton of first round picks. 27 which is the same # as the Twins. However, not many real difference makers (at least not yet) outside of Mauer. Twins drafted high in 2000, 2001 and the last two years but in between they had pretty comparable draft spots. Of those 54 combined picks (which isn't completely fair since some of those picks are still in the minors, some didn't sign, but ignore that for now), Only 6 players managed even 5 WAR so far. And only 3 really made it with their team - Mauer, Perkins and Span. The other three - Garza, Barton and Rasmus were traded away. Obviously, Mauer at the top of the draft is the best guy.

 

Second round picks are even more interesting. Cards had two guys with 5+ WAR (Dan Haren and John Jay), Twins had three (Slowey, Baker, Crain). But the Cards actually really missed out - they traded both Haren and Barton for two seasons of Mark Mulder (who re-signed later but only had one good season in total with the Cards).

 

Third round neither team has a guy meet the 5 WAR cut off but Duensing is the closest Twin (4.8) and Kelly (3.4) is the closest Card. (If we went back to 1999, Morneau was chosen).

 

Fourth round Cards nabbed Molina, Eddie Rosario might be the Twins best pick in that period.

 

Fifth round nothing much. Skip Schumaker is the best player. But it's a lot of meh.

 

Sixth to tenth. Cards found both Brandan Ryan and Allen Craig who have combined for about 23 WAR. Twins drafted Neshek, Dozier and Adam Lind (combined about 14 WAR) in those rounds.

 

The Twins picks in the first few rounds have been better (if we went back to 1999, we could count Pujols in the 13th round). I didn't look into picks that were later traded (like Bullock for Diamond) since that seemed like a lot of work but the drafts themselves don't look too one-sided either way.

[dgwills]

I read some of the comments below the espn article. One of they was commenting on how idiotic the idea of the "Cardinals way" is. Apparently they talk about that a lot. I didn't know other teams did that too. From what I got from the comment it sounded pretty similar to the Twins way. Stability in management and developing prospects. Sounds like they are just doing a better job of it. I think the Twins need to realize that stability is only good when you are successful. Otherwise you just need to keep trying to get people who can get the job done.

With that said, clearly the Cardinals have had some luck. They are very lucky that Pujols decided to reject their offer. They are lucky to of had their pitching prospects work out well and not have injury problems. Its kind of like poker. If you make the right decisions you will be successful in the long term, but success in the short term is very reliant on the cards falling your way.

[TheLeviathan]

Watching Carlos Beltran be a vital cog for the Cardinals should be a reminder about just how impactful FA can be for a team that uses it well.

[Kwak]

Last night's game clearly showed the type of pitcher(s) required to win in the playoffs. Planning on holding opponents to four runs--and you get run out!

[Oxtung]

I just want to say that this has been a fantastic discussion. Good points have been made on both sides. I appreciate the research done by many of the posters and I really appreciate that this thread hasn't devolved into a pissing match. Thanks for a good read so far!

[bird]

Frame this and give a copy to the front office: a) there is a lot of talent in the draft other than the top three players; it isn't luck that teams find these players; c) you have failed to credit the Cardinals (and others) to deveelop this young man into a quality MLB player--or is that luck also?; d) it is a pathetic response to obscure the failure in the Twins organization by claiming that success by others is luck.

 

Please name all the MLB clubs who have produced a larger number of MLB players than the Twins over the last 15 years, or whatever reasonable time period you might choose. I agree with you that finding talent lower in the draft is not (totally) luck, but you will fail to find evidence that the Twins are, as you sy, pathetic in this regard. The facts suggest the complete opposite.

[bird]

I believe the days where some clubs are vastly superior at drafting and developing MLB talent are pretty much over, or at least waning to the point of being a negligible advantage. The Twins ned to emulate clubs who do the best job of MANAGING the assets they deveop. They're especially weak with the selling of assets at more advantageous times.

[biggentleben]

Please name all the MLB clubs who have produced a larger number of MLB players than the Twins over the last 15 years, or whatever reasonable time period you might choose. I agree with you that finding talent lower in the draft is not (totally) luck, but you will fail to find evidence that the Twins are, as you sy, pathetic in this regard. The facts suggest the complete opposite.

 

Here is an article I wrote this summer that's a bit Braves-focused, but it reviews the drafting of every team, and there are some that are simply better than others and some that are poor.

[gunnarthor]

. They're especially weak with the selling of assets at more advantageous times.

 

I'm not really sure that's true, or at least it's true of many other orgs. Clearly, they traded Span and Revere at a good time last year. I know some people think "they should have traded JD Durbin when his stock was high" but I think all teams have that problem. Atlanta should've traded Hanson before his arm fell off. Angels should have traded Wood before he came to the majors. I think, generally, Terry Ryan has done a decent job of trading players for higher value than you'd have generally guessed. Sometimes it's awesome - AJ trade - sometimes it's just getting something for a simple asset - Butera trade, Liriano trade, Morneau trade.

 

One semi valid complaint I've read is that Ryan won't make the "win-now" trade to put the team over the top. I'm not 100% sure that's a valid complaint since those Twins teams had payroll issues and in 2006 the Nats turned down Baker, Slowey + prospect for a two month rental of Soriano. Smith was clearly willing to do those types of trades.

[gunnarthor]

Here is an article I wrote this summer that's a bit Braves-focused, but it reviews the drafting of every team, and there are some that are simply better than others and some that are poor.

 

Not sure the 2008-2012 drafts would be ideal. First, Ryan/Radcliff's last draft was 2007. Smith/Johnson ran 2008-2011 and Ryan/Radcliff/Johnson came back in 2012-13. But it's also not a lot of time for players - esp HS kids - to make the majors (or any impact). The Twins 2012 draft looks fantastic right now and Hicks (08) is just now making it to the majors.

[Badsmerf]

Here is an article I wrote this summer that's a bit Braves-focused, but it reviews the drafting of every team, and there are some that are simply better than others and some that are poor.

 

Ben, could you go further back? I'd like to see the results of this going further back. Starting in 2000 would be a good mark. That would even include Mauer to give the Twins a boost. I'm still guessing it wont help them much.

[gunnarthor]

Ben, could you go further back? I'd like to see the results of this going further back. Starting in 2000 would be a good mark. That would even include Mauer to give the Twins a boost. I'm still guessing it wont help them much.

 

I did a quick look at the 10 years 98-07 drafts and the Twins totaled about 175 WAR or 17.5/per draft. I was going to do it for other teams but the problem is a lot of guys get drafted by two different orgs. I knew not to give the Twins credit for Malholm, Alonzo or Vargas but i wouldn't know that in the White Sox org, for instance. I'm also not sure how much WAR credit should we give? Do I use Kubel's career total of 4.8 or his Twins total of 4.6 (Kubel has not been good by WAR since he left us). The second problem is that WAR, in SSS, can be pretty bad. Guys who were up here for 10 days can have a -.8 career WAR. Anyhow, my guess is that, from 98-07, the Twins were more or less good.

 

A different way of looking at it would be by WAR to pick comparison. For example, the 05 draft the Twins picked 25th so you'd expect that the person they picked wouldn't be as good as most of those picked ahead. Garza's WAR total would be good enough to be re-picked at #10. Not sure how it'd work the other way. Adam Johnson was picked #2 in a pretty ****ty draft group. His -1.1 WAR is 18th "best" of that first round. (#2 is Adrian Gonzalez who was actual drafted #1 but Chase Utley was the steal of that draft, at #15).

[twinsfan34]

Please name all the MLB clubs who have produced a larger number of MLB players than the Twins over the last 15 years, or whatever reasonable time period you might choose. I agree with you that finding talent lower in the draft is not (totally) luck, but you will fail to find evidence that the Twins are, as you sy, pathetic in this regard. The facts suggest the complete opposite.

 

To support your point, and to name those 7 teams.

 

I did a query of teams during Terry Ryan's tenure of drafting players, 1995-2007 for those of you keeping track at home.

 

Anyone wanna guess which team had the most players drafted to make at least an appearance in the Major Leagues during that time?

 

Table:

 

Note: I didn't include WAR as a lot of times WAR is accumulated with other teams or in cases where team drafts the same player twice (Andre Ethier, Athletics) or he's drafted by two different teams (Jason Varitek,Twins & Mariners) or a team drafts him, he doesn't do anything, and becomes a stud somewhere else (Josh Hamilton, Tampa Bay -> Rangers). Thus, it was only based on a team picking a player and that guy made it to the bigs.

 

I also choose from 1995 to 2007 for two reasons. One, Terry Ryan, and two, because most drafts from 2009 and more recent aren't enough time for the 'average' player to develop into a MLB player. College players usually take 2-4 years, while HS players usually take 4-5 years.

[dgwills]

I found this in and article about Micheal Wachas success this year on mlb.com:

That is what is known as dominance. Well, at least that's what most people not named Wacha would call it.

"I wouldn't say that," the rookie said. "I just go out there and try to pitch to contact."

He would of been the perfect Twin! The 8 strikeouts per game might be a bit fancy for us though.

[biggentleben]

Not sure the 2008-2012 drafts would be ideal. First, Ryan/Radcliff's last draft was 2007. Smith/Johnson ran 2008-2011 and Ryan/Radcliff/Johnson came back in 2012-13. But it's also not a lot of time for players - esp HS kids - to make the majors (or any impact). The Twins 2012 draft looks fantastic right now and Hicks (08) is just now making it to the majors.

 

It was simply a 5 year mark, the time that a high school player hitting one level at a time would hit the majors (Rookie, low-A, high-A, AA, AAA). A number don't move at that pace, I realize, so I planned on expanding it this offseason, but I haven't gotten to that yet.

[biggentleben]

Ben, could you go further back? I'd like to see the results of this going further back. Starting in 2000 would be a good mark. That would even include Mauer to give the Twins a boost. I'm still guessing it wont help them much.

 

I do plan on expanding it this offseason, but I haven't gotten to it yet.

[old nurse]

It gets kind of tricky on how you evaluate a draft over time. Total number of players drafted that make it to the majors. From 92 to 2007 draft the Twins have selected 116. Signed only 76 of them. 22 of them had a career bwar greater than 5. The As 110/90/23. Houston at the low end 93/65/10. So what is a standard to judge drafting. Career totals for WAR regardless of team I think is valid. What happens afterwards is not the result of your drafting. Do you include the cup of coffe players? There are an awful lot of Slamas out there. They got a game or two. There are a lot of players pitched less than 20 innings or had less than 50 at bats. They made it. Might have been a September call up when rosters were expanded. Might not. Generally they have slightly negative to slightly positive War. So what sort of quality are you looking for to call a team good at drafting?

[old nurse]

If the looksee is to determine if Ryan is any good at judging talent, he started being scouting director in 1986

[twinsfan34]

If the looksee is to determine if Ryan is any good at judging talent, he started being scouting director in 1986

 

He was only Director of Scouting from 1987 to 1991 per Baseball America.

 

However, he was GM starting in 1995 until 2007. Can't really say he wasn't 'responsible' while in that position versus being Director of Scouting. And

 

I wonder how much 'pull' certain scouts get or how they get graded. They likely all are pulling for 'their guys' to get drafted. Was an interesting read to read about the scout for the Angels who had to fight and plea for the Angels to even take Trout with the 2nd pick of the 1st round that year.

 

Mike Radcliffe was Scouting Director from 1994-2007.

 

A list of Minnesota Twins Scouting Directors over the years.

[twinsfan34]

I admit, I don't know what to think about the fact that most of the upper management for the Twins has been in place for 20+ years.

 

A little scared as they might not be caught in their ways. But, maybe they're good delegators and good at finding capable people?

 

Winning seasons, playoff appearances, World Series Championships, All-Stars (above the automatic one per year), MVP's, Cy Young's, etc. I wonder how they'd fare.

 

Here's a rundown of the Twins Organization over the years:

 

Bill Smith,1986-2011. 26 years.

Rob Antony, 1996-Present. 18 years.

Mike Radcliffe, 1994-Present. 20 years.

Terry Ryan, 1987-Present. 27 years.

Jim Rantz, 1986-Present. 28 years.

Tom Kelly, 1986-Present. 28 years.

 

 

The guy I'd like to know more about is Jack Goin. He was hired in 2012. He's the Director of Baseball Research.

[JB_Iowa]

Despite roster turnover and reliance on youth, St. Louis Cadinals again find themselves in World Series - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN

 

Interesting take on this question. Especially the player turnover.

[old nurse]

Despite roster turnover and reliance on youth, St. Louis Cadinals again find themselves in World Series - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN

 

Interesting take on this question. Especially the player turnover.

 

Wacha, Lynn, and Miller wouldn't be going anywhere

You have 3 veterans Westbrook, Carpenter and Wainwright

You also have Kelly, Lyon and Garcia that start.

You have Martinez in AAA rated highly.

That is 10 starters.

Not to mention Whitting, Gast or even Addington might be better than any starters in AAA for the Twins.

I know a few have had injuries, but that is still riches.

What would it take to pry one away?

[Marta Shearing]

What I respect about the Cardinals is they were willing to let their franchise player walk rather than sign him to a franchise crippling contract. Now Pujols is in a Mauer-like decline and the Cardinals look like geniuses.

[Oldgoat_MN]

What I respect about the Cardinals is they were willing to let their franchise player walk rather than sign him to a franchise crippling contract. Now Pujols is in a Mauer-like decline and the Cardinals look like geniuses.

 

Um, Mauer hit .324 this year with an .880 OPS before being sidelined with an injury.

Over 90% of MLB players wish they were suffering such a decline.

[ThePuck]

Um, Mauer hit .324 this year with an .880 OPS before being sidelined with an injury.

Over 90% of MLB players wish they were suffering such a decline.

 

Exactly! We have enough legitimate reasons to be 'negative' (or, more precisely, realistic in our views) after enduring 3 seasons in a row of at least 96 losses, we don't need to make up things to be negative about.

 

and I wouldn't count out Pujols either...

[Guest USAFChief]

and I wouldn't count out Pujols either...

Concur.