Souhan: Mauer Should Move To 1B

[Winston Smith]

There are 115,000,000 reasons why Mauer should not catch again. One more foul tip and he may never be the same player again. What value does he have sitting in a dark room at home during the season?

[Brock Beauchamp]

If now's not the right time, when is? He's had an assortment of injuries his entire career, and now add concussion to the list. What more has to happen to him? Whats gonna happen next time he takes a foul tip? If EVER there was a time its now.

 

People said this in 2004. People said this in 2007. People said this in 2011.

 

Yet Joe continues to catch and continues to hit.

 

If Joe wants to catch, you let Joe catch.

[freshinthehouse]

Fans have been barking up this tree for ages. I have no problem letting him play catcher as long as he wants. If Pinto starts showing he has everyday talent, then broach the subject with Mauer.

 

His bat's value at catcher vs. 1st base can't be stressed enough.

[Marta Shearing]

So often common sense goes out the window replaced by over-analysis.

[nicksaviking]

Chief already weighed in on this but I'll give an alternative shorthand meta-analysis: the hope is to add 100 points of OPS that catching takes away. Since the bar set for good defensive catchers probably is 200 points of OPS below other positions they would reasonably play, the same argument for most catchers would leave you with only a mediocre player at the new position. Not so for an elite hitting catcher like Mauer.

 

However that is assuming Mauer's offense increases with a move from catcher. Logic would dictate it should, but the stats say otherwise. It's not a large sample size but in 836 plate appearnces at DH, Mauer OPS is .828 compared to .889 as a catcher. In 232 PA as a 1B his OPS is .831.

 

I'm not saying it won't improve, but I don't know that we should be expecting a .100 bonus in OPS if a move to another position occurs.

[Otto von Ballpark]

IMO the Twins have already paid a stiff price for keeping Mauer behind the plate. This is his 10th season, and he has 1178 games played...less than 120 per year. He has 5060 PAs, barely 500 PAs per year.

 

A lot of that is 2004, with the fairly freak knee injury on the Dome turf. Take that year out, and he's at 127 games played and 550 PA per year, and a lot of that is held down by 2011 and 2013, two years he has likely been held out longer than necessary because they were lost seasons for the whole ballclub.

 

Fact is, after his rookie year surgery, he played 131 games and 550 PA in his next season (not unreasonable given the injury), and since then, he's played at least 137 games and 584 PA in every season the Twins were even remotely competitive, save for 2007, when he was again held out a lot in August and September after the Twins were out of the race.

 

I know you're going to dismiss this as a bunch of qualifiers, but Joe Mauer has actually been pretty durable over his career. Last 9 seasons, 6 full (130+ games), 2 partial (~110 games), 1 half (82 games). I know a lot of players at "easier" positions that have worse track records than that.

 

Unless he's really rattled by the latest injury, I see no reason to make a permanent move now. Keep him from being behind the plate too much in rebuilding years and I think he will be just fine.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It's not a large sample size but in 836 plate appearnces at DH, Mauer OPS is .828 compared to .889 as a catcher. In 232 PA as a 1B his OPS is .831.

 

Not that I disagree with your general point, Mauer may have a disproportionate number of games at 1B and DH when he's already banged up from catching. Those numbers don't mean much without that context.

[Marta Shearing]

Another thing that should be factored in are his defensive skills are declining, and I honestly think pitchers prefer Herrmann. Didnt Deduno say something to the effect he wasnt afraid to bounce a 2 strike breaking ball with Herrmann on the mound? I'd call that a pot shot at Mauer. I know pitchers have made similar hints in the past.

[Guest USAFChief]

A lot of that is 2004, with the fairly freak knee injury on the Dome turf. Take that year out, and he's at 127 games played and 550 PA per year, and a lot of that is held down by 2011 and 2013, two years he has likely been held out longer than necessary because they were lost seasons for the whole ballclub.

 

Fact is, after his rookie year surgery, he played 131 games and 550 PA in his next season (not unreasonable given the injury), and since then, he's played at least 137 games and 584 PA in every season the Twins were even remotely competitive, save for 2007, when he was again held out a lot in August and September after the Twins were out of the race.

 

I know you're going to dismiss this as a bunch of qualifiers, but Joe Mauer has actually been pretty durable over his career. Last 9 seasons, 6 full (130+ games), 2 partial (~110 games), 1 half (82 games). I know a lot of players at "easier" positions that have worse track records than that.

 

Unless he's really rattled by the latest injury, I see no reason to make a permanent move now. Keep him from being behind the plate too much in rebuilding years and I think he will be just fine.

 

 

You're right...that is a lot of qualifiers.

 

IMO, all those qualifiers add up to the simple fact he hasn't been "pretty durable." And that's not a dig on him.

 

I also take issue with the plan of "let's keep him at catcher by not playing him so much at catcher."

[TheLeviathan]

Our offense is already pretty bad. A full season of Mauer/Hermann instead of Mauer/decent 1B is another step backward.

[Alex]

Our offense is already pretty bad. A full season of Mauer/Hermann instead of Mauer/decent 1B is another step backward.

 

Unless Pinto is ready and hits better than an average catcher, this pretty clearly shows the value Mauer has at catcher. It's likely a loss of more than the .100 OPS mentioned as the hope for his improvement (which I think is pretty high).

 

I am currently a fan of what Seth suggested. If he's healthy enough you play him more at catcher if needed when the Twins are competitive.

[woody knows all]

I wish the Twins would think about Mauer at 3B not 1B. Athletic and a very strong arm. Plus keeps 1B available for a future power hitter down the road. Agree no place for AJ in the future. Plus could platoon between there and catcher and allow Plouffe to hit against lefties which he actually has had some success.

[jm3319]

If now's not the right time, when is? He's had an assortment of injuries his entire career, and now add concussion to the list. What more has to happen to him? Whats gonna happen next time he takes a foul tip? If EVER there was a time its now.

 

People said this in 2004. People said this in 2007. People said this in 2011.

 

Yet Joe continues to catch and continues to hit.

 

If Joe wants to catch, you let Joe catch.

 

 

You're forgetting that this is his first major head injury. They are a different beast altogether. Ask Morneau which type of injury takes a bigger toll on the hitter: body injuries or concussions? My money is on concussions. I'd rather the Twins move Mauer to first 1 or 2 seasons too early than 1 single inning too late.

[Willihammer]

I don't see the point to catching Mauer if the alternative at 1B is Parmelee/Colabello again. That is just as big a tradeoff offensively, maybe more when you factor in the extra 10-15 games Mauer would not have to sit.

[Alex]

I don't see the point to catching Mauer if the alternative at 1B is Parmelee/Colabello again. That is just as big a tradeoff offensively, maybe more when you factor in the extra 10-15 games Mauer would not have to sit.

 

True, assuming they can't hit as competent first basemen. If they show they can't, though it should still be easier to find a 1B who can at least hit more easily than a backup catcher. Again, I'd like to see Mauer catching as little as possible until he can add that value to help the team compete. Unfortunately, I think that will be too late as even a guy like Bench was pretty much done catching after age 32.

[Mike Sixel]

A lot of that is 2004, with the fairly freak knee injury on the Dome turf. Take that year out, and he's at 127 games played and 550 PA per year, and a lot of that is held down by 2011 and 2013, two years he has likely been held out longer than necessary because they were lost seasons for the whole ballclub.

 

Fact is, after his rookie year surgery, he played 131 games and 550 PA in his next season (not unreasonable given the injury), and since then, he's played at least 137 games and 584 PA in every season the Twins were even remotely competitive, save for 2007, when he was again held out a lot in August and September after the Twins were out of the race.

 

I know you're going to dismiss this as a bunch of qualifiers, but Joe Mauer has actually been pretty durable over his career. Last 9 seasons, 6 full (130+ games), 2 partial (~110 games), 1 half (82 games). I know a lot of players at "easier" positions that have worse track records than that.

 

Unless he's really rattled by the latest injury, I see no reason to make a permanent move now. Keep him from being behind the plate too much in rebuilding years and I think he will be just fine.

 

 

so taking out the three years he's been hurt, catching hasn't led to him being hurt?

[Mike Sixel]

Oh, and Mauer is a lot older than he was 6 and 9 years ago, John.....just look at the fast decline of most catchers at this age, why risk it? If they won't sign a legit 1B, why not move him?

[Otto von Ballpark]

You're right...that is a lot of qualifiers.

 

IMO, all those qualifiers add up to the simple fact he hasn't been "pretty durable." And that's not a dig on him.

 

I also take issue with the plan of "let's keep him at catcher by not playing him so much at catcher."

 

Well, your numbers said he's averaged less than 120 games per season. Last 9 years, he's been the 130s or 140s six times, twice fell just short of 120 games (arguably could have attained it in both 2007 and 2013 but arguably got extra rest in August and September after the Twins were out of the race), and once played just half a season (2011).

 

That's not a bad record of durability for any player, really. Unless there are specific circumstances from the latest injury (or if Pinto tears the cover off the ball), I see no need to rush a change now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Pudge Rodriguez averaged 126 games a season over his first ten seasons.

 

Joe Mauer is at, what, 119 games a season?

 

Mauer's "injury history" is being blown waaaaaaaay out of proportion. Catchers get dinged up and miss games. When they're healthy, they miss games just to rest. Expecting anything more than 130 games a season from a catcher is asking too much.

 

Whether you want to argue that Joe's bat will improve at first and that the 10-15 additional games he'll play at the position will outweigh the lineup strength he provides at catcher, so be it. But his injury history is being overstated. He has missed several partial seasons, two of which were as much due to the Twins being awful as Joe being "injured".

[Mike Sixel]

That's our point!

 

We want him there for 150-160 games.....what is that worth, 25% more games (150-120=30.....30/120 is 25%). 25% more at bats from one of the best hitters in the game, that's worth a lot, imo.

[Brock Beauchamp]

You're forgetting that this is his first major head injury. They are a different beast altogether. Ask Morneau which type of injury takes a bigger toll on the hitter: body injuries or concussions? My money is on concussions. I'd rather the Twins move Mauer to first 1 or 2 seasons too early than 1 single inning too late.

 

Is this truly a "major" head injury? He apparently received a mild concussion and the Twins are being extremely cautious because their 2013 squad is awful. Yes, concussions are scary but realistically, 99% of the time people recover from them just fine. Guys have been sitting behind the dish, getting concussions for 100 years. Yes, there is a small chance that Joe will go all Justin Morneau on the Twins and that would suck. But there is a very small chance of that happening.

 

Argue whether that small risk is worth it but let's not act as if Joe just stuck his arm in a wood chipper. He's expected to be back by the end of the week.

[Brock Beauchamp]

That's our point!

 

We want him there for 150-160 games.....what is that worth, 25% more games (150-120=30.....30/120 is 25%). 25% more at bats from one of the best hitters in the game, that's worth a lot, imo.

 

How much is it really worth?

 

150+ games of Joe Mauer at an .860 OPS, replacing an .800 OPS first baseman

 

or

 

120-130 games of Joe Mauer at an .860 OPS, replacing a .680 OPS catcher

 

It's not an easy decision. Personally, I want to see Joe in the Hall someday and his best chance of that is at catcher. He's only 30 years old. I'm all for extending his career at first base but I don't think that decision has to happen in 2014.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I also take issue with the plan of "let's keep him at catcher by not playing him so much at catcher."

 

What's so weird about swapping your best player out of the most physically demanding position when you're well out of the race?

 

And keeping the ability to swap him back into the same position when you are in the race (or hope to be) offers a huge advantage.

 

Maybe to clarify: do you (or others here) recommend a permanent move, or just a reduced load? I could get behind the latter, especially if Pinto hits -- it's actually what I was hoping for in 2010 before the Ramos trade.

[Mike Sixel]

How much is it really worth?

 

150+ games of Joe Mauer at an .860 OPS, replacing an .800 OPS first baseman

 

or

 

120-130 games of Joe Mauer at an .860 OPS, replacing a .620 OPS catcher

 

It's not an easy decision. Personally, I want to see Joe in the Hall someday and his best chance of that is at catcher. He's only 30 years old. I'm all for extending his career at first base but I don't think that decision has to happen in 2014.

 

Only 30? people here are saying never sign a FA that age. How old would you say he has to be Brock?

 

I don't care if he's in the hall, I want the Twins to win games.

[Willihammer]

This concussion thing really gives me the heeby jeebies. The general trend seems to be, that impacts that we used to think of as "getting your bell rung" are fullblown concussions. Foul tips are now included in that group.

 

So its less a question of, *will* Mauer get another concussion, and more a question of A. How many has he already gotten? and B. *When* will the next one hit?

 

It makes no sense to me to expose a huge investment like Mauer until they improve the masks and get these concussions under control. Until then, I'd be fine with cheap aging vets and investing elsewhere (pitching) or rolling the dice with Pinto or Herrmann.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Only 30? people here are saying never sign a FA that age. How old would you say he has to be Brock?

 

I don't care if he's in the hall, I want the Twins to win games.

 

I say he continues to catch until he shows a declining skillset.

 

I'm also okay with giving him more time at 1B/DH in seasons like this one, when the Twins winning 1-2 more games with a quality catcher is irrelevant.

[Mike Sixel]

btw, where is THIS TEAM getting an 800 OPS 1B in the next two years? and why do you think Pinto/Herrmann will OPS 620?

[TheLeviathan]

btw, where is THIS TEAM getting an 800 OPS 1B in the next two years? and why do you think Pinto/Herrmann will OPS 620?

 

He said 680, but much more than 700 is unlikely. I could see the clamoring if we had a clear n quality replacement ready. We don't at this point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

btw, where is THIS TEAM getting an 800 OPS 1B in the next two years? and why do you think Pinto/Herrmann will OPS 620?

 

That was a typo, which I had already changed to .680.

 

Getting an .800 OPS first baseman on the FA market is not hard to do. Arcia could also be that guy, as could Sano.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He said 680, but much more than 700 is unlikely. I could see the clamoring if we had a clear n quality replacement ready. We don't at this point.

 

That's just it. This conversation changes dramatically if Pinto can play defense and hit .750.