The Twins Should Hope Ryan Jeffers Accepts His Qualifying Offer

[Cris E]

12 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I've said this a lot but I'll say it again. Jeffers is fantastic. I have nothing but praise for him. I hope he gets all the money he has coming to him. 

Bottom Line For Me: I want to beat the catcher market not lose to it.

I want to take advantage of the catcher market rather than have the catching market take advantage of you.

I'd rather the Twins treated the catching position as an asset-factory rather than long term foundational pieces.

Rather than over paying for catching - I'd rather the other teams over pay you for catching.

Ashbury calls it a stupidity tax. He is right... it's a stupidity tax that we pay time and time again because we have failed to develop catching. Jeffers the lone exception. 

Hopefully we can get on the correct side of the market with the players coming up through the system. 

When we have some ready catchers to trade in a few years we can do that, but right now our plan is hoping that Caratini trends back toward his career averages at the plate and something, someone, mumble steps up and really takes advantage of his opportunities! 

For 2027 we're in the market for a catcher because we have a gap in our development Pipeline at the position and we can't just slide someone over.  This year we need to go out and get a bandaid or go big and retain a stud. 

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, Cris E said:

When we have some ready catchers to trade in a few years we can do that, but right now our plan is hoping that Caratini trends back toward his career averages at the plate and something, someone, mumble steps up and really takes advantage of his opportunities! 

For 2027 we're in the market for a catcher because we have a gap in our development Pipeline at the position and we can't just slide someone over.  This year we need to go out and get a bandaid or go big and retain a stud. 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, JBK said:

I'm advocating for a backup catcher.  Not an alternative to Ryan Jeffers.

I might have been clearer that my first paragraph was intended to explain why Pineda isn't a better alternative to Caratini and Jackson.  The remainder of the post was back to the topic of the article.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, Cris E said:

What? I assume the 6/95 is a typo, but there have been many catcher contracts for more then $40m handed out in the recent past. In fact Sean Murphy signed a six year $73m extension in 2022, JT Realmuto signed his 3/$45m deal last year at the age of 34,  Kirk from TOR got his 5 year $58m extension in March 2025, Will Smith did a ten year $140m before the 2024 season, and so on. Lots of rich contracts. 

If you want to confine yourself to free agents only that's your choice, but the market is set by what others are getting paid and who is available, and Jeffers has got scarcity and a lot of other contracts going for him, establishing a rough valuation around $12-15m.  

Murphy was younger than Ryan is now when he signed that so there isn’t the length into old age. The last year is a team option  still, a 12 million a year AAX is not going to get the Twins a comp pick   Kirk got out of signing for his free agent years were at 12 million a year with the contract expiring after his age 1 season  In regards to Realmuto and Smith. In what universe has Jeffers done what they gave done to get their money? That is why I didn’t say anything about them. I have never seen anyone compare Jeffers to them. Realmuto’s last contract from what I read was based on legacy and loyalty to the team.   Smith’s contract value drops after age 2. There is 35 million in deferred money,. 

[SE23]

Also worth noting that Caratini was a league average hitter until this season, so he could bounce back.  His big hot streak this summer was when he was catching full time during Jeffers' time away. 

I've noticed that Vic doesn't get much respect around here. I have a feeling he'll have a bounce-back year and surprise some folks.

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, Road trip said:

But... if 1 WAR equals approximately 8 million of market value (that seems to be the sabermetric consensus), then Jeffers in 2026 was worth approximately 8 * 2.8 BWAR = 22.4 million.  So, the QO is right in range for his 2026 production.

You could certainly argue that Jeffers isn't necessarily likely to match last year's production, but I don't know it is a massive overpay.

This year's free agent market may be an odd one, with a labor stoppage likely, but $15MM AAV would be a bargain for Jeffers if he can continue to match his 2026 production, especially given the fact that there are no other good catchers on the market.

FWIW, MLBTR projects Jeffers to earn 4 years/ 75 mil.  That seems high to me, but it is another data point.

Teams lean on fWAR rather than bWAR, typically. Also teams haven't consistently paid $8MM for expected WAR in my analysis, they try to pay $6MM. $8MM is the cost that teams get because players underperform their expectations.

Team expects player A to produce 4 WAR. They pay the player more like $6MM per WAR expected so about $24MM AAV per year. Player A actually produces 3 WAR because they fail to live up to expectations due to injury or regression or decline so the net the cost of the contract is $8MM per WAR.

Yes, it's pretty easy to argue a player with almost no track record using a completely different plate approach than they'd had their entire career crossing over into age 30+ seasons on the tail of a career year could be risky.

It's tough to say how teams will evaluate him. Do they think he can repeat this past year but with more PA? Are they willing to treat him as a 3+ WAR player and give him a premium due to a tight market? Or are they going to view him as a relatively average MLB catcher and refuse to pay a big premium when they may not view him as a truly great upgrade? Will they be unwilling to part with over-cherished draft picks to sign him? 

Who knows?

[Coach Wheels]

8 hours ago, HarmanWithAnA said:

Pretty sure $23M is greater than $18.75M and he can probably still get the 4yr/$75M next year if he repeats his 2026 numbers.

Keyword, "if."

Also, 3 years guaranteed>1 year guaranteed