Pablo Lopez’s Return Timeline and Its Impact on Minnesota’s Offseason Roster Plan

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins have reason to feel optimistic about Pablo López's chances of returning to the rotation early in 2027. After missing the 2026 season following elbow surgery, the veteran right-hander is working toward a potential return near the beginning of next season.

That possibility gives Minnesota another option as it evaluates its starting rotation this offseason. However, there is a difference between having a pitcher working toward a return and knowing when he will be ready to compete in the major leagues.

According to Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune, López hopes to receive medical clearance around the beginning of March.

“He underwent the second Tommy John surgery of his career on Feb. 25, and he’s on a 12-month recovery timeline, so he’s hopeful he will be fully cleared around the beginning of March.”

While that would represent meaningful progress, the timing leaves little room for delays before the regular season begins. The Twins should welcome the news while keeping their offseason plans flexible.

A Narrow Window for López to Return

Minnesota is scheduled to open the 2027 regular season on Thursday, March 25, against the Kansas City Royals. If López receives medical clearance in early March, he would have a relatively short period to build up his workload and prepare for regular-season competition. Medical clearance would be an important milestone, but it would not necessarily mean López could immediately handle a full starter's workload. He would still need to progress through his throwing program, demonstrate that his stuff is intact, and show that he can recover adequately between outings.

There's also uncertainty surrounding the next collective bargaining agreement between MLB owners and the players' union. The coming work stoppage will disrupt the offseason and could push back the start of the regular season.

Another consideration is how pitchers perform after returning from Tommy John surgery. Making it back to the major leagues is one milestone, but regaining pre-injury form can take considerably longer. 

A recent study examining modern pitching metrics found that only 3.9% of pitchers returned to their full pre-surgery performance level in their first season after surgery. That figure increased to 11.8% by the second season and 28.1% by the third. The researchers defined full performance using five measures: expected fielding independent pitching, FanGraphs wins above replacement, overall velocity, fastball velocity, and spin rate. These findings suggest that even pitchers who make it back on the expected timeline may need additional time to regain their previous effectiveness. 

Those numbers do not determine López's individual outcome, and they should not be treated as a prediction of how he will pitch in 2027. His medical history, rehabilitation progress, and response to a starter's workload will ultimately provide more useful information about his readiness. Still, his second surgery gives Minnesota additional reason to approach his return cautiously.

Those circumstances make it difficult to establish a firm return date this far in advance. López's progress should remain an important factor in Minnesota's planning, but the organization needs to prepare for the possibility that his recovery takes longer than anticipated or that he needs additional time to regain his effectiveness.

The Rotation's Contract Situation Adds Another Layer

López's recovery timeline is particularly important because of the Twins' broader rotation picture. Joe Ryan, Dean Kremer, and Bailey Ober are also approaching the final year of their current team control, with all four pitchers potentially reaching free agency after the 2027 season. That creates several decisions for Minnesota's front office as it considers contract extensions, possible trades, and opportunities for younger pitchers. The organization has legitimate reasons to explore its options. Trading a starter could help address other roster weaknesses, while an extension could provide stability beyond next season. However, the upcoming contract deadlines should not dictate how Minnesota evaluates its available pitching.

A projected rotation spot is not the same as a dependable source of innings. If the Twins trade an established starter before López demonstrates that he is ready to return, they could create an unnecessary problem. His progress might be encouraging, but the organization still needs enough reliable arms to navigate the early portion of the season. Minnesota should avoid allowing its contract calendar to outweigh the importance of maintaining adequate rotation depth.

Young Pitchers Need Opportunities, Not Guaranteed Jobs

López's potential return also affects the development plans for Minnesota's younger pitchers. Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel and other internal candidates could factor into the rotation competition heading into 2027. The Twins should give those pitchers opportunities to compete for meaningful roles. That does not mean they need to clear every veteran out of the way before spring training.

Competition can help determine which pitchers are prepared to contribute, while additional depth provides protection against injuries and inconsistent performance. A veteran returning from major surgery makes that depth even more valuable.

If López progresses as hoped, Minnesota could have greater flexibility to move a starter or adjust its pitching plans later in the offseason. If his recovery requires additional time, the club would still have established options available while its younger pitchers continue developing. That flexibility is preferable to creating a rotation vacancy and hoping every part of the recovery process unfolds according to schedule.

Minnesota Should Keep Its Options Open

The Twins should continue listening to trade offers involving their starting pitchers. No player should be completely off the table if a deal meaningfully improves the overall roster, particularly for a team with needs to address across multiple positions.

However, trading an established starter simply because López appears on a projected depth chart would be a risky approach. The potential benefits of a deal must outweigh the additional uncertainty it creates for the pitching staff.

An early return from López could significantly improve Minnesota's rotation outlook. It could reduce the need to acquire another starter, ease the burden on younger arms, and give the front office more freedom to explore trades. For now, those benefits remain possibilities rather than guarantees.

López's latest update gives the Twins a reason to be encouraged as they enter a pivotal offseason. The next step is allowing his rehabilitation to progress while building a rotation capable of handling multiple outcomes.

Minnesota does not need to abandon its trade plans or promise every young pitcher a job. It simply needs to make sure that any move involving an established starter leaves the organization with enough dependable innings to compete. The Twins can be optimistic about López's return without counting on it before he is ready.

---

How will López’s return timeline impact Minnesota’s roster planning? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

View full article

[LastOnePicked]

"A recent study examining modern pitching metrics found that only 3.9% of pitchers returned to their full pre-surgery performance level in their first season after surgery. That figure increased to 11.8% by the second season and 28.1% by the third."

This is an important splash of cold water on the idea that the rotation can be penciled in as a "strength" for the 2027 team. And this is the second surgery recovery for Lopez. The chances of him returning strong this year are very slim. Not impossible, but slim. 

So beyond Lopez you have:

Bradley (hopefully building on 2027, but he'll have to adjust to a new pitching coach)

Ryan (a massive question mark for anything past 15-20 starts)

Prielipp (a bright spot for 2026, but still not much more than #3-#4 starter upside)

Kremer (again, back-end rotation material at best)

Matthews (about as uneven as they come - flashes of brilliance with massive backsliding)

And a few other question marks, with no elite pitching talent at any level in the minors.

The FO needs to figure out how to bolster this staff pronto, or the upcoming primes of the promising lineup are going to be wasted in season after season of games where the Twins lose to scores like 7-5.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Good thing in the mlb by laws there is a rule that says “If the Twins trade 1 (one) starting pitcher in the offseason between the 2026 and 2027 season, that forbids them from making any other pitching transactions of any kind between that point and opening day 2027, whenever that may be.”

Its in chapter 3, note 6. :)

[Patzky]

Whatever we do it's finally time to start doing it. Athletics-Red Sox minor trade announced today. Let's go Pohlad.

[MeleMouth]

"A recent study examining modern pitching metrics found that only 3.9% of pitchers returned to their full pre-surgery performance level in their first season after surgery. That figure increased to 11.8% by the second season and 28.1% by the third. The researchers defined full performance using five measures: expected fielding independent pitching, FanGraphs wins above replacement, overall velocity, fastball velocity, and spin rate. These findings suggest that even pitchers who make it back on the expected timeline may need additional time to regain their previous effectiveness." 

Thanks for this data!

Gerrit Cole, a great pitcher, was worth 2.1 fWAR this year, after his first TJ. It would be, ahhh, very "hopeful" to expect Lopez, a very good pitcher coming off his second TJ, to be better than that. In fact, it might even be a good idea to limit Lopez's innings by putting him into the bullpen and having him be the closer in 2027.

[MeleMouth]

7 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Prielipp (a bright spot for 2026, but still not much more than #3-#4 starter upside)

Prielipp has pitched way too few professional innings to say that his upside is a #3 starter. If he can get more movement on his fastball and make relatively small improvements to his command, with a little more experience he could be very good.

[SE23]

might even be a good idea to limit Lopez's innings by putting him into the bullpen and having him be the closer in 2027.

I like this kind of outside-the-box thinking!

[old nurse]

What stat do they use to determine 100% back?  With a counting stat like WAR, of course it is going to be down.. They are likely not pitching for a full season A pitcher’s stamina is going to be down.  No throwing for 4-6 months. Building back takes time. The timetable for recovery can be 18 months  so a lot depends on the when a surgery is done for early season results 

Lopez might not be back to full strength until the middle of the season. So yes, he might not be as good in 27 Then again there might a short season so he has more time to build back up