Did the Twins Exceed Expectations This Year?

[mluebker]

…or maybe when Marek Houston arrives, he’s at SS and Culpepper moves over to second. 

[The Great Hambino]

In the micro, yes.  They technically did exceed expectations in that they won slightly more than their Vegas projections by a few games by riding the weird phenomenon where they collectively turned into a prime Stan Musial with RISP for a couple of months.  They also out-paced my personal projection of 69 wins, though in my defense, that factored in another selling trade deadline.

But in the macro? As in, have they advanced the franchise forward towards being a consistent contender?  They've fallen short of my expectations.  My hope was that coming out of last year's trade deadline, they would aggressively continue to align with a competitive window in 2028.  They weren't starting from scratch; there were a lot of reasons to like in terms of the future core starting to form from their pre-arb guys and prospects both familiar and new waiting in the high minors.  But instead, they thought they could wish their way into contention while reducing the resources invested in the club.  They pocketed the Correa savings and lowered the bar for what contention means as low as possible.  Unsurprisingly, that strategy failed.  And the club feels not much closer to legitimate contention - if any closer at all - than they were before the 2025 trade deadline.  Who has taken a big enough step that you're confident they'll be a future centerpiece (this year's debutants not included; the jury's still out on all of them, both good and bad).  What internal candidates have been successfully transitioned into a legitimate bullpen weapon - maybe Morris if you're being generous?  Wasn't the whole point of trading away your bullpen the idea that you can put one together cheaply internally?

They had an opportunity to start operating like the Brewers/Rays/Guardians/etc; instead, they chose to continue to operate like the Reds.  You know, the team an even smaller market that is one of only two franchises to have gone longer since appearing in an LCS than the Twins.

Good leadership is supposed to make the right decision even when it isn't the most popular decision.  Tom chose short-term popularity when insisting on immediate contention both in the offseason and at the trade deadline because he valued short-term attendance over all else.  They didn't contend and attendance was down.  In the bigger picture, this year was a missed opportunity.  It wasn't catastrophic - there's still a path forward.  But it's a narrower path than it could have been if they had been honest with themselves about the position they were in

[TheLeviathan]

24 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

In the micro, yes.  They technically did exceed expectations in that they won slightly more than their Vegas projections by a few games by riding the weird phenomenon where they collectively turned into a prime Stan Musial with RISP for a couple of months.  They also out-paced my personal projection of 69 wins, though in my defense, that factored in another selling trade deadline.

But in the macro? As in, have they advanced the franchise forward towards being a consistent contender?  They've fallen short of my expectations.  My hope was that coming out of last year's trade deadline, they would aggressively continue to align with a competitive window in 2028.  They weren't starting from scratch; there were a lot of reasons to like in terms of the future core starting to form from their pre-arb guys and prospects both familiar and new waiting in the high minors.  But instead, they thought they could wish their way into contention while reducing the resources invested in the club.  They pocketed the Correa savings and lowered the bar for what contention means as low as possible.  Unsurprisingly, that strategy failed.  And the club feels not much closer to legitimate contention - if any closer at all - than they were before the 2025 trade deadline.  Who has taken a big enough step that you're confident they'll be a future centerpiece (this year's debutants not included; the jury's still out on all of them, both good and bad).  What internal candidates have been successfully transitioned into a legitimate bullpen weapon - maybe Morris if you're being generous?  Wasn't the whole point of trading away your bullpen the idea that you can put one together cheaply internally?

They had an opportunity to start operating like the Brewers/Rays/Guardians/etc; instead, they chose to continue to operate like the Reds.  You know, the team an even smaller market that is one of only two franchises to have gone longer since appearing in an LCS than the Twins.

Good leadership is supposed to make the right decision even when it isn't the most popular decision.  Tom chose short-term popularity when insisting on immediate contention both in the offseason and at the trade deadline because he valued short-term attendance over all else.  They didn't contend and attendance was down.  In the bigger picture, this year was a missed opportunity.  It wasn't catastrophic - there's still a path forward.  But it's a narrower path than it could have been if they had been honest with themselves about the position they were in

Your excellent post here leads me to ask a question I've been chewing on.  In a good rebuild, that looks to the future, you invest playing time in the hope of surprises that change your future outlook.  Think about how good we felt when Jax became a guy for us in the bullpen awhile back.  Anyone from Cole Sands to Johan Satana who you just pause and think "Oooo we got something here.  That's a pleasant surprise!"

Can we say anything like that for this year?  Kody Clemens?

[The Great Hambino]

Just now, TheLeviathan said:

Your excellent post here leads me to ask a question I've been chewing on.  In a good rebuild, that looks to the future, you invest playing time in the hope of surprises that change your future outlook.  Think about how good we felt when Jax became a guy for us in the bullpen awhile back.  Anyone from Cole Sands to Johan Satana who you just pause and think "Oooo we got something here.  That's a pleasant surprise!"

Can we say anything like that for this year?  Kody Clemens?

If you're being charitable, I guess Brooks Lee in that he's shown that he could be good enough to be a lineup fixture at the bottom of the order of a true contender.  Keaschall would've if he had a position he could play.  And next year's rookie class that got their feet wet this season - Culpepper, Jenkins, Rodriguez, Gonzalez - didn't give us reasons to think that they couldn't make those kinds of steps next year.

But overall, we're in the same position we were in a the start of last offseason where they're going to rely heavily on several quantum leaps internally to get the improvement necessary to be true contenders.  Hope is still the strategy.  This will be a very pivotal offseason for both ownership and the front office.  Please prove me wrong here.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, mluebker said:

Let me put it another, probably better way: There are other holes to plug before worrying about an upgrade at second base. Clemens is a good defender and reliable hitter—that’s more than they have almost anywhere else on the field right now. So first figure out those other slots and then start thinking about what all-star second baseman wants to play for the Twins.

Clemens isn’t strictly a second baseman. He allows the Twins to add the best player they can find. They can move Clemens around to fill the other slots.

[stringer bell]

5 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

Your excellent post here leads me to ask a question I've been chewing on.  In a good rebuild, that looks to the future, you invest playing time in the hope of surprises that change your future outlook.  Think about how good we felt when Jax became a guy for us in the bullpen awhile back.  Anyone from Cole Sands to Johan Satana who you just pause and think "Oooo we got something here.  That's a pleasant surprise!"

Can we say anything like that for this year?  Kody Clemens?

Gomez? Until he hit the wall, he was a revelation. I will add that there were red flags even while he was succeeding. 

[TheLeviathan]

13 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Gomez? Until he hit the wall, he was a revelation. I will add that there were red flags even while he was succeeding. 

It's a good name to ponder...but I guess I don't feel good about him.  Do you?

[mluebker]

9 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Clemens isn’t strictly a second baseman. He allows the Twins to add the best player they can find.

Unless he’s a starting-quality catcher or reliable relief pitcher, I have a hard time seeing where Clemens plugs into any other holes.

If they need an upgrade, it’s in the outfield far more than at second base, even if Jenkins and Rodriguez are ready to play out there every day. Buxton is the DH of the future and Keaschall doesn’t belong out there (or at second) with his weak arm and iron glove. But because he can hit and run the bases, he’s a keeper. So he ends up at first base unless someone better is on the trading block and the Twins have something that team needs.

Right now they need stability across the roster and defense they can count on. So I have a hard time imagine them making any big upgrade moves except to replace Jeffers or add some experience in the bullpen.

Until the new CPA is signed, I think they’ll thin out some of the dead wood, and the rest of the roster they ended the season with will be the one they have to start 2027.