Vahn Lackey Ranks as Top Prospect from 2026 MLB Draft in The Athletic’s New Rankings

[Cody Christie]

Every summer, the release of updated prospect rankings becomes one of the first opportunities to evaluate how the newest draft class stacks up against baseball's best young talent. Each national outlet has its own philosophy, leading to plenty of debate about player ceilings, risk, and long-term projections. There isn't one correct way to rank prospects, which is exactly what makes comparing these lists so interesting.

The Athletic's Keith Law has long taken a different approach than many evaluators, emphasizing future value over consensus rankings. His updated top prospects list following the 2026 MLB Draft reflects that philosophy, and it includes an especially optimistic evaluation of Minnesota's newest first-round pick.

Where Does Vahn Lackey Rank?

Law ranks Vahn Lackey as the No. 20 prospect in all of baseball, making him the highest-rated player from the 2026 MLB Draft on his list. That ranking is six spots higher than Baseball America's post-draft evaluation, which placed Lackey 26th overall. It also puts the Twins' third overall selection ahead of both players drafted before him. First overall pick Roch Cholowsky checks in at No. 21, while second overall pick Grady Emerson lands at No. 34.

It's another reminder that opinions on this draft class remain fluid. While most evaluators viewed the top three selections as being in the same tier entering the draft, Law believes Lackey deserves a slight edge.

Quote

I’m putting Lackey and Roch Cholowsky back-to-back here on purpose, as I saw them as extremely close in the draft and ended up with Lackey just slightly ahead because I think there’s more upside here given the position and the athleticism. Lackey might end up a plus defensive catcher with plus power and a plus hit tool, which may as well be a jackalope given how rare that profile is. We’ll have to see how his power surge this spring holds up in pro ball, and whether his long-term future really is behind the plate given the rigors of the position.

The upside Law describes is exactly why Minnesota was comfortable making Lackey the third overall pick. Catchers who project to provide impact offense while remaining behind the plate are among the rarest commodities in baseball. If Lackey reaches that ceiling, the Twins could have one of the game's most valuable young players.

Where Do Other Twins Top Prospects Rank?

Walker Jenkins has held the title of Minnesota's top prospect since the Twins selected him with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. Law still gives him the edge, ranking Jenkins as baseball's No. 19 overall prospect, just one spot ahead of Lackey.

The narrow gap is notable. Shortly after the draft, I made the case that Lackey had a legitimate argument to become the Twins' No. 1 prospect immediately. While Law stops just short of making that move, his rankings suggest the two are essentially viewed as equals entering the next stage of their development.

Jenkins slipped eight spots compared to Law's preseason rankings, with injuries playing the biggest role in that decline rather than any concerns about his long-term talent. When healthy, Jenkins still possesses the all-around tools that have made him one of baseball's elite prospects since draft day.

Minnesota also placed two more players on Law's list. Emmanuel Rodriguez came in at No. 31, while Kaelen Culpepper ranked No. 53 overall.

Those placements become even more impressive when considering the size of Law's rankings. Unlike many national outlets that publish a Top 100, Law limits his list to just 70 prospects. Having four players inside that group speaks to the overall strength of Minnesota's farm system, especially after adding another premium talent at the top.

Prospect rankings will continue to change as players gain professional experience, battle injuries, and adjust to higher levels of competition. Still, Law's evaluation reinforces what the Twins believed when they turned in Lackey's name on draft night.

Not only did Minnesota land one of the most talented players available, but they may have selected the player with the highest long-term upside in the entire draft. Whether Lackey eventually overtakes Jenkins as the organization's top prospect remains to be seen, but the conversation is already underway, and that's exactly where the Twins hoped it would be just weeks after the draft.

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[Dman]

For the reasons Law mentioned I have Lackey as the Twins number one prospect.  Still Jenkins is the same age as Lackey and at AAA so has pretty much proven his potential is for real.  Lackey hasn't taken a pro at bat yet.  Still looking at the upside Law mentioned and since prospect lists are based on potential I'd have Lackey number one.  Doesn't matter much though as they are both great prospects.

[gman]

I'm surprised that ERod made it to #31 on the Law's list, only 10 places below both Lackey and Jenkins. As Rodriguez battles another year of injuries, there have been many on this site who would prefer that he is thrown in the trash can. I've always preferred that he is elevated to the Twins right field role as soon as he is healthy.

[Mike Sixel]

11 minutes ago, gman said:

I'm surprised that ERod made it to #31 on the Law's list, only 10 places below both Lackey and Jenkins. As Rodriguez battles another year of injuries, there have been many on this site who would prefer that he is thrown in the trash can. I've always preferred that he is elevated to the Twins right field role as soon as he is healthy.

Ya, Fangraphs doesn't even have him in the top 100 anymore. 

[Dman]

2 hours ago, gman said:

I'm surprised that ERod made it to #31 on the Law's list, only 10 places below both Lackey and Jenkins. As Rodriguez battles another year of injuries, there have been many on this site who would prefer that he is thrown in the trash can. I've always preferred that he is elevated to the Twins right field role as soon as he is healthy.

I generally trust Law more than most as he seems to be right more often than not.  Rodriguez does have a long list of production all the way up.  He must feel it is going to translate to have him that high.

On the other hand Fangraphs is pretty solid as well.  Like Law their writeups are generally more in depth and nuanced and a lot of flaws they see turn out to be real especially on the pitching side.  I don't feel like their track record with hitters is as good though.  Seen plenty of Whiffs there. Personally I think the reason he is not in their top 100 is the injuries.  He never plays a full season. It's hard to truly evaluate that.

[twinstalker]

Note that it's one guy, and he is the sort who will double down on anything he says, and a lot of what he says is in part to make The Athletic stand out as different.  Basically, he stopped liking Cholowsky as much, went with the next best college hitter in his mind, and, if you know him, will now never back down.  Combine that with having to put Cholowsky high in the rankings (because he's almost ready now and is good), and it's not the glowing article title it seems.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, twinstalker said:

Note that it's one guy, and he is the sort who will double down on anything he says, and a lot of what he says is in part to make The Athletic stand out as different.  Basically, he stopped liking Cholowsky as much, went with the next best college hitter in his mind, and, if you know him, will now never back down.  Combine that with having to put Cholowsky high in the rankings (because he's almost ready now and is good), and it's not the glowing article title it seems.

He literally writes two articles a year on his mistakes. Not sure what you mean by never back down. 

[nicksaviking]

There is so much group-think with these prospect rankings, and Law seems very aware of that and often bucks trends, which is commendable. I usually roll my eyes at contrarians, but since no big name pundits in any sports dare stray too far from consensus with these things, this is the spot a contrarian is actually beneficial.

Because of this, I'm sure at times it gets to the point where he has pet prospects, but I'm pretty sure he's acknowledged that happens, which is also commendable.

And while I like Jenkins, I'm surprised people aren't putting Lackey above him. If he doesn't start putting the ball over the fence, he's going to be getting Alex Kirilloff comps as soon as he's called to the majors.

[Derojo]

It seems to me that how soon prospects will arrive should figure into the rankings. With that in mind I would easily put Walker Jenkins as number one. Lackey won't arrive till at least September 2027, while Walker Jenkins will be here this September. IF he remains healthy.

I would like to see the Twins make durability a larger aspect of prospects, as I grow weary of the constantly injured multiple Minnesota Twins prospects. It seems obvious, but you're not doing the Twins organization any good if you can't play.

[ashbury]

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

he's going to be getting Alex Kirilloff comps as soon as he's called to the majors.

Why?  Someone's published data on the length of the bones in his arms?