Trade deadline selloff return is complete now with the draft - Remainder of Year outlook

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

The full return on the trade deadline selloff is complete.   I was firmly in the belief getting an elite draft pick would be the biggest return from tanking the remainder of the season and from the prospects received.  The Twins ended with getting the #3 pick who was clustered with the other two, a likely top 25 global prospect and was viewed similarly to Posey and Rutschman.  Now there is variability of performance at the catcher level.  This was a massive win for the organization.  If we had not traded we most likely end up with Burress, Bell, Lombard or Lebron.  They are good prospects, but all have some warts.  Lackey is effectively wart free for a catcher which is crazy.    Here is the return now as I see it.  

#1/#2 Pitcher Bradley- 2029 

Potential Franchise Catcher - Lackey

Abel #2-#4

Rojas backend rotation or bullpen piece  

Tait - power bat but still young and working on swing decisions ton of variability (after the draft I think I trade him) 

Mendez - has an MLB bat - maybe the best return

Roden - I feel like a similar player to Larnach with slightly better defense 

- Misc - Jimenez (C upside), Horn and Gallagher - solid but stuff likely not good enough MLB   

 

In hindsight,  as most stated at the time,  trading and losing Varland who wanted to stay in Minnesota was likely the biggest loss.  However I am think its highly unlikely the Twins then do not have the ability to draft Lackey.  The Twins could have won 6-8 more games with him guiding the bullpen last year and would have kept morale higher.  The team quit in August and September.   Varland has turned into an elite closer, but all in all the sell off worked as painful as it was.  I still think it would have been in the Twins best interestto have traded Ryan before the season - as the intention appeared to be but Pohlad just didn't have the stomach for it.   Say what you will Tom appears steadfast on adding to this team and competing as he stated.   I think we give some table scraps to continue to rebuild the bullpen such as getting Coloumbe.  

At the deadline things will get interesting.  I hope the Red Sox fall back.   I think the Twins after some of these moves, are an elite reliever and #3 pitcher away from competing in the playoffs.  Would they be willing to create a package around Rojas or Tait - with someone like Roden and maybe a sweetener to get Gray and Chapman?  Right now I say no.  If the Twins are winning the Red Sox lose more - bringing back Sonny Gray would be a PR dream (plus a good player) along with an elite closer.   I honestly don't think the Twins still have enough, especially professional hitters, but with a rebuilt bullpen -  Chapman, Gomez, Morris, Nance, Sands, Coloumbe, Go, Rogers     -  That would solidify the bullpen and actually potentially make it a strength.  Granted its a 2 month rental, and this likely isn't the year to go for it,  but honestly I wouldn't be opposed.  You would have a 3 headed pitching monster in Ryan, Bradley, Gray.   Tom has stated he isn't trading any of the key players unless we lose, Ryan, Jeffers and Buxton and stated he wanted to see trades for the bullpen - 1 day later we got Nance.  I think Tom wants to show he is a man of his word.  It could be short sighted but it would definitely be fun.   What a reversal from last year, and the deadline deals and tank really have improved the organziation and outlook for the future.  

[knothole61]

A well-reasoned summary...thanks. But man, Varland is looking good!

[rickyp]

"It's a good thing we're awful or we wouldn't get good draft picks!"

signed, every longtime timberwolves fan 😁

[strumdatjag]

On 7/15/2026 at 8:28 AM, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

The full return on the trade deadline selloff is complete.   I was firmly in the belief getting an elite draft pick would be the biggest return from tanking the remainder of the season and from the prospects received.  The Twins ended with getting the #3 pick who was clustered with the other two, a likely top 25 global prospect and was viewed similarly to Posey and Rutschman.  Now there is variability of performance at the catcher level.  This was a massive win for the organization.  If we had not traded we most likely end up with Burress, Bell, Lombard or Lebron.  They are good prospects, but all have some warts.  Lackey is effectively wart free for a catcher which is crazy.    Here is the return now as I see it.  

#1/#2 Pitcher Bradley- 2029 

Potential Franchise Catcher - Lackey

Abel #2-#4

Rojas backend rotation or bullpen piece  

Tait - power bat but still young and working on swing decisions ton of variability (after the draft I think I trade him) 

Mendez - has an MLB bat - maybe the best return

Roden - I feel like a similar player to Larnach with slightly better defense 

- Misc - Jimenez (C upside), Horn and Gallagher - solid but stuff likely not good enough MLB   

 

In hindsight,  as most stated at the time,  trading and losing Varland who wanted to stay in Minnesota was likely the biggest loss.  However I am think its highly unlikely the Twins then do not have the ability to draft Lackey.  The Twins could have won 6-8 more games with him guiding the bullpen last year and would have kept morale higher.  The team quit in August and September.   Varland has turned into an elite closer, but all in all the sell off worked as painful as it was.  I still think it would have been in the Twins best interestto have traded Ryan before the season - as the intention appeared to be but Pohlad just didn't have the stomach for it.   Say what you will Tom appears steadfast on adding to this team and competing as he stated.   I think we give some table scraps to continue to rebuild the bullpen such as getting Coloumbe.  

At the deadline things will get interesting.  I hope the Red Sox fall back.   I think the Twins after some of these moves, are an elite reliever and #3 pitcher away from competing in the playoffs.  Would they be willing to create a package around Rojas or Tait - with someone like Roden and maybe a sweetener to get Gray and Chapman?  Right now I say no.  If the Twins are winning the Red Sox lose more - bringing back Sonny Gray would be a PR dream (plus a good player) along with an elite closer.   I honestly don't think the Twins still have enough, especially professional hitters, but with a rebuilt bullpen -  Chapman, Gomez, Morris, Nance, Sands, Coloumbe, Go, Rogers     -  That would solidify the bullpen and actually potentially make it a strength.  Granted its a 2 month rental, and this likely isn't the year to go for it,  but honestly I wouldn't be opposed.  You would have a 3 headed pitching monster in Ryan, Bradley, Gray.   Tom has stated he isn't trading any of the key players unless we lose, Ryan, Jeffers and Buxton and stated he wanted to see trades for the bullpen - 1 day later we got Nance.  I think Tom wants to show he is a man of his word.  It could be short sighted but it would definitely be fun.   What a reversal from last year, and the deadline deals and tank really have improved the organziation and outlook for the future.  

Continue to develop Tait, his value will rise and he is insurance in case Lackey doesn’t pan out.  Lackey will likely be one or two levels under Tait through 2027. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

8 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Continue to develop Tait, his value will rise and he is insurance in case Lackey doesn’t pan out.  Lackey will likely be one or two levels under Tait through 2027. 

I personally think some of the shine is off Tait and that he pretty much is what he is currently. I would cash in on him now personally.    A power bat with aggressive swing decisions and high strikeout rates and average to below average defense.  

[Cory Engelhardt]

44 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I personally think some of the shine is off Tait and that he pretty much is what he is currently. I would cash in on him now personally.    A power bat with aggressive swing decisions and high strikeout rates and average to below average defense.  

He can be in the minors for 4 more years and debut when he is 23 for all I care. 

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

19 hours ago, knothole61 said:

A well-reasoned summary...thanks. But man, Varland is looking good!

This is the one trade I questioned at the time. Even still a multi all star catcher is more valuable than a good reliever. 

[knothole61]

3 hours ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

This is the one trade I questioned at the time. Even still a multi all star catcher is more valuable than a good reliever. 

Granted...although there's always that old saying: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush leagues!

[ashbury]

On 7/16/2026 at 9:46 PM, knothole61 said:

Granted...although there's always that old saying: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush leagues!

Counting McNuggets before they hatch also comes to mind. 😁