Grading the Twins Through the Season's First Half

[Linus]

30 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

There was a statistical analysis, but data is always growing and teams are continually looking for a market advantage.

https://sabr.org/journal/article/the-statistical-mirage-of-clutch-hitting/

That’s the one. Thanks for the link. What made me think of it is that Buck has relatively few RBIs and is being labeled as no good in the clutch by some. Yet he had an OPS of 976 last with RISP. Interesting stuff

[mnfireman]

3 hours ago, Brandon said:

If this is on offense the 1B is off.  Should be a B or B-. 

I agree with Authors assessment of a B for SP due to overcoming all those injuries and being at least average 

RP can quibble over D and F.  We did find 2 relievers Morris and Gomez and Banda was on a long roll of great pitching for almost 2 months before getting hurt.  But the rest of the pen is awful.  We should have at least two more relievers that have value.  Rogers is flopping., Orza is near 5.00 that is not the value I'm talking about.  No one else is doing good either 

Probably better go look at some statistics concerning 1B. According to Fan Graphs, the Twins are near the bottom in advanced metrics and middle of the pack (at best) by standard stats.

[Saxophone Joe]

I think we’re all thinking the same thing going into NY this weekend with the Yankees desperate having lost seven straight…😬

[Brandon]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Take it up with Fangraphs and fWAR

0-6 A
7-12 B
13-18 C
19-24 D
25-30 F

You separated defense and gave that an F.  Though Clemens has been good defensively he has also hit and Lewis has been good since moving to 1B offensively.  Bell and Cartini played some 1B but I doubt they played enough to knock the score down to an F.

[Brandon]

25 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

Probably better go look at some statistics concerning 1B. According to Fan Graphs, the Twins are near the bottom in advanced metrics and middle of the pack (at best) by standard stats.

The numbers are probably dragged down by Cartini and Bell playing at 1B.  They didn't hit.  Defense shouldn't be included here since it was graded separately.  Why double grade defense?  

[bean5302]

15 hours ago, Brandon said:

You separated defense and gave that an F.  Though Clemens has been good defensively he has also hit and Lewis has been good since moving to 1B offensively.  Bell and Cartini played some 1B but I doubt they played enough to knock the score down to an F.

Again, not my numbers. Fangraphs' numbers. 

[Brandon]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Again, not my numbers. Fangraphs' numbers. 

Their 1B numbers are brought down by Bell and Cartini.  Lewis and Clemens probably have the Twins 1B situation in the 10-15 range and not 22.  So as long as Bell and Cartini stay off 1B, problem solved. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

22 hours ago, Cody Christie said:

Only seven AL pitchers have more quality starts than Ryan. He ranks 14th in innings pitched and that would likely be higher had he not left one start early. Pitchers throwing seven innings regularly just doesn't happen as much in the modern game.

I agree that he could be more efficient (last night being a good example). He has the league's sixth best fWAR and seventh best rWAR. That's about as good as it gets.  

I agree with all of that except the conclusion that he's a #1. He may be in the top 10-15 starters this year but that doesn't make him fit at least for my definition of a #1. I see a #1 starter as a guy who regularly pitches at least 180 innings a season (the standard is really 200 but the game has changed), ERA/FIP/Sierra all under 3.25, ERA ideally under 3, regularly pitches into the 7th and sometimes the 8th, gives team a real good chance to win 8 games out of 10 and almost always saves the bullpen. They have a clunker here or there but when it happens you're always surprised. There aren't 30 #1 starters in my opinion; there are probably about 10. Most teams don't have a #1. Yamamoto, Cole pre-injury, Skubal, Skenes, Crochet, those guys are #1 starters. Ohtani can be if he's injury free, Brown, Cease and Webb have been some years, deGrom and Sale used to be and may be coming back to that status. Thee are a few others that don't come right to mind. These are guys that when you see them lined up against your team you think, well, that's a loss, hope we can win the other two games. Ryan isn't there yet and probably won't ever be. Lopez was close and could be. That's my view anyway.    

[Linus]

19 minutes ago, LA Vikes Fan said:

I agree with all of that except the conclusion that he's a #1. He may be in the top 10-15 starters this year but that doesn't make him fit at least for my definition of a #1. I see a #1 starter as a guy who regularly pitches at least 180 innings a season (the standard is really 200 but the game has changed), ERA/FIP/Sierra all under 3.25, ERA ideally under 3, regularly pitches into the 7th and sometimes the 8th, gives team a real good chance to win 8 games out of 10 and almost always saves the bullpen. They have a clunker here or there but when it happens you're always surprised. There aren't 30 #1 starters in my opinion; there are probably about 10. Most teams don't have a #1. Yamamoto, Cole pre-injury, Skubal, Skenes, Crochet, those guys are #1 starters. Ohtani can be if he's injury free, Brown, Cease and Webb have been some years, deGrom and Sale used to be and may be coming back to that status. Thee are a few others that don't come right to mind. These are guys that when you see them lined up against your team you think, well, that's a loss, hope we can win the other two games. Ryan isn't there yet and probably won't ever be. Lopez was close and could be. That's my view anyway.    

I agree with this. Joe is a damn fine pitcher but there is a level of pitcher above him. 

[twinfan]

I prefer to rate the team over the past month+ rather than on the year. Right now the offense is a B+ though with minimal power and only 2, .280+ hitters (few teams have more) though I wonder if Larnagh can keep up. Most of the games we failed to score much were earlier in the season. The Starters are also a B+ in my mind while the bullpen has improved to a C-. I don't pay much attention to defense in baseball though ours could do better. I'd be more concerned about range of our infielders and jumps and arms of our outfielders. We seem on target for close to a .500 season. The question is what do we do at the deadline. I hope we can get a few good players whose contracts aren't up this year. I also think our manager gets a B+ for his running of the team.

Happy July 4th!